Six Nations 2024: Can Duhan Van der Merwe break duck against Wales?

Until the rugby gods started to strike them down, the Scotland back three was just about the most devastating collection of attackers the country has ever produced.

There was Blair Kinghorn at full-back with 14 tries in 50 caps, but Kinghorn is back in Toulouse nursing a knee injury that will take him out of the first two games of the Six Nations. There was Darcy Graham with 24 tries in 39 Tests - a try every 1.6 games - but the wee man is out with a quad injury and will miss the opening rounds too.

Of the try-scoring triumvirate, Duhan van der Merwe is the last man standing for Saturday's trip to face Wales at the Principality Stadium. "One of the best one-on-one attackers in world rugby" was how Gregor Townsend described him on Thursday in the Scotland hotel overlooking Cardiff Bay.

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In an explosive international career, Van der Merwe has scored at a near-historic lick, 21 tries in 34 games. That strike rate is closing in on Ian Smith's numbers from the 1920s, when a win was worth two points, a try worth three and the championship consisted of four teams.

This time last year some people were calling him Van der Swerver after he ran inside, outside and through all those England defenders at Twickenham. "It was incredible, wasn't it?" said Townsend of his wing's solo run. "It reminded me of when, for everybody of a certain age, you played 'Jonah Lomu rugby' and suddenly one person can go quicker."

If Bill McLaren was alive today he would have come up with a memorable moniker for the big fella - Table Mountain with legs, or most probably, something a whole lot catchier and more clever.

If his first try that day was all about his one-on-one - or one-on-five - attacking ability, his second was one of the great Scotland team scores, an epic that ranks with any they have delivered in any era.

It was Van der Merwe who finished it. Outside Marcus Smith, a 10 in the wrong movie, outside a scrambling Owen Farrell. Through Max Malins, who could do nothing to stop the juggernaut. It was breathless and brilliant.

Van der Merwe had outstanding moments in many games in last season's championship. Statistically, he beat 35 defenders in five games, a mark that broke the Six Nations record previously held by… Van der Merwe, with 31 in 2021.

Third, fourth and fifth on that list are Brian O'Driscoll (30 in 2000), Emile Ntamack (26 in 2000) and George North (26 in 2016). Greats all. Van der Merwe has scored winning tries in Paris and at Twickenham, he's scored against Ireland and Italy, against Japan and Argentina, against Fiji, Georgia and Tonga. The only Six Nations side he is yet to score against is Wales. Four games, no joy.

'Van der Merwe has a big target on his back'

A try hound like him will know the Scotland stats against the Welsh, even if he's a bit slow to talk about them. He was terrific in the deconstruction of Warren Gatland's team at Murrayfield last season. Try-less, but a force. He ran for 150 metres. Nobody else made as much as ground with ball in hand.

He's got two new partners on Saturday against a Wales side not so much callow as kindergarten, in Test match terms. Kyle Rowe plays full-back but he's got the mind of a wing. Scotland are playing three wings in Cardiff and Kyle Steyn is the third.

Steyn has 10 tries in 15 Tests and, as such, has a better tries-per-game return than Van der Merwe and even Smith. Wales know what he's about - he scored a double against them last season - but he's largely unheralded outside of Scotland. And sometimes in Scotland.

He's intelligent and consistent, a mature presence in attack and defence. A player to hang your hat on. He doesn't produce the fireworks of Van der Merwe but he's arguably a better all-round operator. Scotland will miss Graham, but Steyn deserves his place. Townsend is well-served not just by a collection of wings, but by a collection of different types of wing.

What makes Van der Merwe so compelling is the certainty that for all the work Gatland and his coaches will do in trying to find ways to halt him, they will put the same amount of thought into how to exploit him.

Van der Merwe is an astonishing attacker but nobody has ever said he's the complete player. The last time he played at the Principality, Wales did a number on him. The last we saw him in the Test arena, Ireland did the same.

The World Cup passed him by. Van der Merwe has a big target on his back against the best teams now. South Africa's blitz meant he never got near the ball. Ireland's intensity neutered his influence.

That wretched World Cup loss to Andy Farrell's team showed Van der Merwe as hunted rather than hunter. In Paris in the autumn he touched the ball three times in the first 40 minutes for a negative metre return. By the break, Ireland had more tries than the wing had touches.

He was turned over, he knocked-on, was flattened in contact, shunted behind the gain-line. It was only in the 80th minute when he ran into space. Too little, too late.

The criticism of Van der Merwe, amid all the plaudits, is that his defence is vulnerable and his work-rate needs improvement. There's truth in that. The best teams can silence him, but only the best.

Ireland hardly ever kicked to him because they knew they needed a rampaging Van der Merwe like they needed a hole in the head. They took him out. Made him irrelevant. Can Wales do the same?

Since the turn of the millennium and the creation of the Six Nations, Chris Paterson, Kenny Logan and Glenn Metcalfe are the only Scottish wings who have won in Cardiff. Sean Lamont and Rory Lamont, Thom and Max Evans, Simon Danielli, Nikki Walker, Lee Jones, Simon Webster, Sean Maitland, Tommy Seymour and Byron McGuigan have not.

Van der Merwe resides among the Cardiff casualties. Unlike that list, he's still in a position to do something about it. What will we see come Saturday? Hunter or hunted? The giant of this fixture in 2023 or the small boy of 2022?

In Duhan, Scotland trust. In Duhan, Wales see a man who must be stopped.

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