Six Nations 2024: Wales face mission improbable in Ireland

Not quite mission impossible. But it is very much mission improbable for Wales this weekend as they travel to Ireland's Six Nations lair.

Wales have arrived in Dublin more in hope than expectation in recent seasons. but there is little anticipation for any away success on this occasion.

You will be pushed to find anybody who will predict an unexpected Welsh win at Aviva Stadium on Saturday afternoon against a rampant Irish side ranked second in the world.

History against Wales

Basic facts and figures make Wales rank outsiders at a venue where they have not won a Six Nations game in five attempts since 2012.

While Wales have lost nine of their last 10 Six Nations games, victory for Ireland would see them equal England's record of 11 straight Championship wins.

When Ireland's home record - only two defeats from the last 40 games - is factored in, it adds up to a monumental task for Warren Gatland's team.

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Wales went close to defeating Scotland and England in their opening fixtures, but Ireland in Dublin is a challenge on another scale.

After the crushing disappointment of yet another World Cup quarter-final exit, Andy Farrell's side have shown no hangover. They have blasted out of the blocks with emphatic wins against France and Italy, bringing what would be an historic feat of the first back-to-back Grand Slams in the Six Nations era even closer.

Two of their remaining three games are at home. It could be that the hard work has already been done after they defeated Les Bleus in Marseille.

It is difficult to ignore how good Ireland are. Their all-court game is unmatched in the competition. They are a team with no obvious weaknesses. Everyone else can only look on with envy.

Ireland scored five tries against France in the 2024 Six Nations victory

Power plays

Ireland will look to outmuscle and overpower Wales, as demonstrated by their decision to put six replacement forwards on the bench.

This puts the onus on the Wales set-piece to function. The Six Nations campaign so far has been a tale of two halves.

In the first 40 minutes against Scotland, they failed to score a point. In the second 40 minutes against England they did not trouble the scorers either.

Wales still almost did enough to win both games, losing 27-26 and 16-14 and were left reflecting on what might have been.

Gatland's side lost six line-outs on their own throw in the Scotland game, with that key area proving shambolic at times. The scrum has also creaked occasionally amid many good moments.

There is little room for error against Ireland. If Wales get their set-piece basics wrong, they will be punished mercilessly.

Familiar friends and foes

Wales head coach Gatland led the British and Irish Lions on their last three tours, including masterminding a Test series triumph over Australia in 2013 and a drawn series with New Zealand four years later. In both those series, now-Ireland chief Farrell was his defence coach.

Gatland has left big shoes to fill for next year's Australia mission, but his successor Farrell was emphatically the leading candidate to take over on the back of Ireland's stunning successes in recent seasons. Farrell knows the Lions ropes.

Their tactical battle this weekend will be fascinating as two of the best rugby brains around put masterplans into operation.

Gatland and Farrell find themselves in contrasting situations in terms of national success and cohesion with their professional sides.

The Wales coach has caused a stir in the build-up with comments about Welsh rugby being like plugging holes on a sinking ship and doubting whether a much-needed regional reset will happen.

Wales have also lost a host of experience from before and after the World Cup with the likes of Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric, Dan Biggar, Leigh Halfpenny and Liam Williams all missing through international retirement or unavailability, while Jac Morgan, Dewi Lake and Taulupe Faletau are injured.

Ireland have managed to keep a lot of players, apart from former captain Johnny Sexton, so it has been a policy of Irish evolution rather than Wales' enforced revolution.

Gatland has given debuts to new players like full-back Cameron Winnett and flanker Alex Mann after only a handful of senior games.

Their Cardiff colleague Mackenzie Martin is now poised to make his Wales debut off the replacements bench after just nine professional matches.

When he was Ireland coach, Gatland blooded the likes of Ronan O'Gara, Peter Stringer, Simon Easterby, Shane Horgan and John Hayes in 2000, a year after handing Brian O'Driscoll his first cap.

He will be hoping such a youth policy will pay dividends in the future, even if this weekend proves far too soon.

Home comforts

The noisy Dublin crowd at the Aviva Stadium will test this young Wales side. While Welsh players often talk about the inspirational atmosphere at Cardiff's Principality Stadium, Ireland's home has become a fortress.

Saracens' Wales centre Nick Tompkins has played in the last two defeats in 2020 and 2022.

"It's an unbelievable stadium with a great crowd. It's amazing how loud they are and they feed off it well," said Tompkins.

"They always have done, but more so in recent years. So it's going to be a massive challenge. And it will be interesting for the younger boys experiencing it for the first time.

"I want them to feel like there are no scars. I don't want them to go there and worry about outside aspects or we can't beat them. I want them to go and just be them and be confident with it and enjoy it."

Can any Ireland weaknesses be exposed?

Ciaran Frawley made his Ireland debut against Italy in August 2023

Wales will hope so. They have talked about trying to create chaos in the hope of disrupting Ireland.

Leinster full-back Hugo Keenan has proved a dominant force in attack and defence for Ireland during recent seasons.

A player who always seems to excel, he has emerged as arguably the leading full-back in northern hemisphere rugby, someone that Farrell knows is ultra-reliable and also offers star quality.

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A knee injury, though, has sidelined him from the Wales clash with Farrell calling up Keenan's Leinster colleague Ciaran Frawley for a first Test start after two appearances off the bench.

Keenan is a major loss and, while Frawley will inevitably slot straight in, he has played a lot of his rugby at fly-half and centre and Gatland has indicated Wales will target him.

Sexton's fly-half successor Jack Crowley has slotted in seamlessly in his Six Nations starts so far, but has yet to be tested.

Wales, who also have an inexperienced number 10 with Sam Costelow back from injury, will be looking to try and expose any weakness Crowley might have.

If they can do that then Mission Improbable might seem a little more plausible. A Wales nation lives in hope, but not much expectation.