England's 'massive opportunity' to shock All Blacks

Fly-half Marcus Smith will be key to England's hopes of securing a first series win in New Zealand

New Zealand v England first Test

Date: Saturday, 6 July Kick-off: 08:05 BST Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin

Coverage: Listen to commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds and follow live text commentary on BBC Sport website and app.

When England last toured New Zealand 10 years ago, the All Blacks were on top of the rugby world.

After winning the World Cup in 2011, Steve Hansen's side were on an extraordinary run that would culminate in back-to-back glory in 2015.

A new crop of future All Blacks stars were coming through, while all-time greats like Richie McCaw and Dan Carter were still in their prime.

Even without the injured Carter, and despite strong English performances in the first two Tests, the All Blacks eventually secured a 3-0 series win to cement their status as the dominant rugby nation on earth.

The landscape is different in 2024. South Africa and France have stolen a march - the Springboks on the pitch and the French off it. The Japanese league has coaxed some great All Blacks into international sabbaticals or international retirements. Covid took its toll.

"It's been a few tough years, there is no doubt about that," said New Zealand Rugby Union boss Mark Robinson.

The Henry-Hansen-Ian Foster lineage - which ran the All Blacks for 20 years - has been broken up, with the popular former flanker Scott Robertson, 49, now at the helm after guiding the Crusaders to a remarkable seven consecutive Super Rugby titles.

"He has spent a huge amount of time developing his craft," said Robinson.

"He's thought really deeply about the role for a long time. It feels this is the time for him."

But despite the excitement around the Robertson era, the New Zealand rugby public - often so bullish - is a little nervous.

The All Blacks haven't played a game since losing the World Cup final last October, while a host of key players including locks Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, scrum-half Aaron Smith and fly-half Richie Mo'unga are no longer available.

With Sam Cane stepping down as captain, second row Scott Barrett will lead the team for the first time, while Damian McKenzie starts at fly-half.

"There is uncertainty about how this team is going to come together," explained Liam Napier of the New Zealand Herald.

"I look at this New Zealand squad and there are so many unknowns," agreed former England scrum-half Danny Care.

"They don't have the players anymore that you fear. They have players you massively respect, but as a team, do you go there literally with fear? I don’t think New Zealand has that at the moment.

"This is a massive opportunity for England to go down there and shock the New Zealand world."

'England's style of play has evolved'

Among the local media, England's sharp performances at the back end of the Six Nations and the polished display in the win against Japan in Tokyo have not gone unnoticed. Nor has the continuity in Steve Borthwick's selection or the tweak in playing style since last autumn's World Cup.

"It’s not traditional England - they have evolved," said Napier. "Maybe England have a chance to surprise the All Blacks with their style.

"There is cohesion there and they have named largely the same team. But how is this All Blacks team going to come together? No-one is quite sure."

While Borthwick has had his whole squad in camp for almost four weeks, Robertson has had his together for just 10 days. Leaders like Ardie Savea and Beauden Barrett missed the Super Rugby season while playing in Japan.

"I’m nervous," World Player of the Year Savea admitted on Thursday. "But nerves bring the best out of us. And it's a great challenge for myself to step forward and try and own it."

"You hope England can maybe catch New Zealand a little bit on the hop," said Care.

"There are a lot of things that put the All Blacks in a different space to where they have been in years gone by," added former England wing Chris Ashton.

Despite all this, England supporters will be cautious in their optimism.

The All Blacks still boast some world-class players, whether in the form of the magnificent Savea or the talented Jordie Barrett [the third of the brothers in the matchday squad]. TJ Perenara is back at scrum-half after a two-year absence. Robertson can even afford to leave the great Beauden Barrett out of his starting XV.

England’s inexperienced side - the vast majority of whom have never played in New Zealand - will be tested both mentally and physically. It is the All Blacks in New Zealand and it remains - according to Borthwick - the biggest challenge in world rugby.

But it nonetheless feels like England have a once-in-a-generation chance of making history, and becoming only the third English side - after 1973 and 2003 - to win a Test in New Zealand.

Under Robertson, the All Blacks will only improve going forward. Any cobwebs will be blown away, and quickly.

Next week's second Test is at Eden Park in Auckland, the spiritual home of All Blacks rugby, where their record is incomprehensibly good.

For England, Saturday in Dunedin might be a case of now or never.