Who is at risk as Welsh rugby consultation starts?

Ospreys, Cardiff, Dragons and Scarlets are at risk under Welsh Rugby Union plans

September marks the start of a consultation period into the future of rugby in Wales.

All four professional clubs will this week get their chance to outline why the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) should not cut two teams.

Cardiff, Dragons, Scarlets and Ospreys are booked in for separate meetings while players, fans and politicians will also have their say before 26 September.

But whether anyone can steer the governing body away from its "optimal" plan remains to be seen.

The Union insists nothing is finalised and is ready to listen before a report is sent to the WRU board to make a decision, expected in late October.

If the regions cannot find an alternative plan then each will come under the microscope.

Jobs would also be on the line.

Players, coaches, backroom team, operations and administration staff are all living with uncertainty.

Cardiff listed 247 employees in their most recent accounts, Scarlets 164, Ospreys 119 and Dragons 106, though there will be more jobs involved in the clubs' supply chains.

Llanelli Council says more than 400 jobs are connected to the Scarlets alone.

So how does each region measure up?

Cardiff the capital club

Cardiff won the European Challenge Cup in 2010 and 2018

In many ways, it was the collapse of Cardiff that sparked the mess.

All four regions had verbally agreed a new professional rugby agreement (PRA) but everything changed when Cardiff went into administration in April.

The WRU stepped in to save the capital city club, and Scarlets and Ospreys pulled out of the agreement.

Their rivals' scepticism was possibly vindicated on hearing comments from WRU chief executive Abi Tierney.

"We didn't choose when Cardiff went into administration," she said in August.

"For lots of factual reasons, populations, pathways, number of clubs etc, I said this was one of the reasons we chose to take Cardiff in-house.

"So, it's hard to see a model where you don't see rugby being played in Cardiff but other people can challenge that."

Cardiff have the biggest population base - their average attendance of 8,694 last season was the largest of the Welsh regions - and hold a lease with Arms Park landlords Cardiff Athletic Club until 2028.

Scott Waddington, former boss of brewery comapny Brains, has been appointed as independent chair, and the Blue and Blacks appear in a strong position.

Dragons ambitious but underperforming

Rodney Parade is home to the Dragons and Newport County

Polish has not been in great demand at Rodney Parade – the Premiership Rugby 7s is the only trophy the club has ever lifted despite two European semi-finals.

Based purely on results, Dragons would be in trouble having been the worst Welsh performer in 17 of 22 seasons, and bottom of the URC last season by some distance with just one win.

But the club believe they are in a strong position off the pitch under owners David Buttress, David Wright and Hoyoung Huh. They have signed a new 10-year lease for their training base in Ystrad Mynach and have recruited heavily this summer.

Rodney Parade generates income from rent paid by football club Newport County and other sporting events, and there is an ambition to develop the northern end of the ground.

Dragons also have a raft of famous clubs in their catchment area, something recognised by the WRU.

When the WRU took over the region in 2017, then chief executive Martyn Phillips said: "The big thing is there are 73 clubs in Gwent, they have a rich history and have always produced some amazing players, so there is no way I would be able to stand here and not have a professional club in Gwent without knowing I had done everything I could."

Nonetheless, there are those who believe the WRU should have kept its distance.

Ospreys lead on the field

Ospreys wing Shane Williams was named as world player of the year in 2008

Ospreys are the most successful Welsh side since regional rugby was launched in 2003, with four league titles and an Anglo-Welsh Cup triumph.

Warren Gatland famously named 13 Ospreys players in his first Wales team in 2008.

But that star-studded squad of 'Galacticos', with the likes of Shane Williams, Gavin Henson and Ryan Jones as well as All Blacks Justin Marshall, Marty Holah and Jerry Collins, should have achieved more.

The region has produced genuine superstars, such as Alun Wyn Jones, Shane Williams, Dan Biggar, Adam Jones and James Hook. This summer it provided one of only two British and Irish Lions players from Wales - Jac Morgan flying to Australia along with Gloucester's Tomos Williams.

Ospreys also have population on their side in Wales' second-biggest city and have opted to leave the often soulless Swansea.com Stadium and spend this 2025-26 season in Bridgend while they redevelop St Helen's.

But Swansea council has safeguards if professional rugby in the city is impacted by the WRU decision.

The region, taken over by Y11 Sport & Media in 2020, came close to a merger with the Scarlets in 2019, while talk of a merger with Cardiff in 2023 was denied.

The WRU would be keen for those discussions to begin again.

Scarlets' rich history

Dwayne Peel played for the Scarlets and was then appointed head coach in 2021

Scarlets have been the most vocal opponents to the WRU plans so far, with politicians joining the outcry from club fans and new investors House of Luxury.

Llanelli Council will this week vote on a motion to challenge the Union to save Scarlets which contributes "millions of pounds" to the local economy.

Much of the argument also revolves around heritage and history, which includes two league titles, though the last was back in 2017.

Scarlets reached the URC play-offs last season - averaging crowds of 6,666 - and will be Wales' only representatives in the Champions Cup this coming campaign.

They have been prolific in producing players, such as Jonathan Davies, George North and Stephen Jones, but this summer was the first time in the regional era that they did not provide a Lion.

Part-timers Llanelli controversially withdrew from playing in the Premiership in 2023 but the Scarlets' pathway has been strengthened by the performances in Super Rygbi Cymru of Llandovery and Carmarthen Quins.

The region's £25m home stadium Parc y Scarlets is owned by Carmarthenshire Council which also granted Scarlets a 15-year extension on a £2.6m loan when moving from Stradey Park in 2007, scheduled to end in 2038.

Other options - all or nothing?

The WRU's formal consultation document did not suggest where its chosen two elite clubs would be based or what they would be called.

That leaves the possibility on the table of forming two entirely new entities.

One of the options, albeit the worst one according to the Union, is for four clubs to remain with two getting more funding and two being development sides.

Would supporters, owners and players of a 'smaller' pair accept that in exchange for survival?

The next month should help to make that clear.