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Opta computer makes Arsenal firm favourites for titlepublished at 18:52 GMT 10 November
18:52 GMT 10 November
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Manchester City might have made a statement of intent in the title race with their 3-0 win against reigning champions Liverpool last night and moved four points behind Premier League leaders Arsenal before the international break.
But they are still some way off catching the Gunners, according to Opta's Premier League predictions.
The Opta supercomputer's latest update has Pep Guardiola's City finishing about seven points behind Arsenal at the end of the season.
Opta still gives Arsenal 63.6% chance of winning the title this season with City only having a 22.9% chance of becoming champions in the latest set of simulations.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have only a 7% probability of defending their title with Chelsea marked at 2.75%.
Have rivals identified Liverpool's right-hand side as a weakness?published at 15:23 GMT 10 November
15:23 GMT 10 November
Tom McCoy BBC Sport journalist
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After Liverpool's 3-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge last month, Chelsea's Marc Cucurella said the Blues had targeted the Reds' right flank, intimating that because Mohamed Salah is "always ready to attack" there is more space for the opposition to exploit.
There is certainly a recent pattern of rivals trying this ploy. In each of the Merseysiders' past eight league games, opponents have channelled more attacks down their left (Liverpool's right) than they have through the centre or via the opposite flank.
In fact, since the start of September, 43% of attacks by Liverpool's Premier League opponents have been directed at this perceived weak spot. That compares to 31% via the other wing and 26% up the middle.
Former Reds right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold was sometimes viewed as a player who could be a weak link defensively, but with the Englishman now at Real Madrid, there is an argument the problem is more a case of team structure than personnel.
Conor Bradley, who has started the past seven league games at right-back, excelled against Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr in midweek, but the 22-year-old found Manchester City's Jeremy Doku a far tougher proposition on Sunday.
Liverpool signed Jeremie Frimpong this summer, though he has not started a Premier League game since the opening day because of hamstring issues.
Even when he returns to fitness, the attack-minded Dutchman might not necessarily make Liverpool more defensively resilient, having mainly featured as a wing-back in his final two seasons at Bayer Leverkusen.
If head coach Arne Slot wants to shore up his right-hand side, Bradley will need more protection. Is the solution as simple as asking star man Salah to track back more often?
Otherwise, a tactical reshuffle might be necessary against elite opposition, with a more defensively diligent player fielded in front of Bradley to avoid the talented but inexperienced Northern Irishman being isolated too often.
Jimmy: Disappointing performance. The form of Mohamed Salah and Ibrahima Konate is particularly worrying, especially away from home. Maybe they should be given a rest like Milos Kerkez because he looked much better after a few weeks on sidelines. Florian Wirtz needs to get stronger as he is too easily knocked off the ball. Then let him play the Martin Odegaard role behind Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak.
Jack: Liverpool were awful. Even if the penalty wasn't awarded and Van Dijk's goal was awarded, it wouldn't have mattered because we were shambolic. We played like we did against the likes of Crystal Palace, Brentford and Manchester United, constantly playing ourselves into trouble. And was Ekitike even on the pitch? He got so little service he might as well have gone for dinner. Liverpool just couldn't handle the City pressure and the doubt that was relieved slightly by the wins over Aston Villa and Real Madrid has reared its ugly head again. Maybe the end of Slot, at the extreme.
Andy: I'm dismayed to see the rapid demise of Salah. He's lost his pace and his touch. He rarely beats his full-back and tries to shoot at ridiculous times. Slot needs to give Federico Chiesa a chance. He's got lots to sort out and it is weird how so many players are so out of touch.
Peter: At the moment, Liverpool are not up to the challenge of defending their Premier League title. All the money that has been spent over the summer and they can't gel together. There is no running in them. I think some of the players just think they can turn up and it will all be good, Slot also has a lot to answer for as it's his job to sort out this mess.
Christopher: The lack of physicality is worrying. Salah and Wirtz were lightweight. Konate is away with the fairies at times and his distribution is poor. Salah's lack of support for Conor Bradley is not helping the defence either and he needs benching. Wirtz needs to step up or drop out. A front line of Ekitike, Cody Gakpo and Alexander Isak looks a better bet.
Ruhel: Chiesa coming on with seven minutes left says all there is to say about Slot's decision making. Continuously playing Konate who has been error-prone in nearly every game this season and signing a injury-prone striker for £125 million. Time for Slot to go.
'Not about the line of vision' - analysispublished at 09:43 GMT 10 November
09:43 GMT 10 November
Dale Johnson Football issues correspondent
Image source, Getty Images
Subjective offside decisions, those where the player does not touch the ball, are always controversial.
They require interpretation about impact from the officials, and that is often not straightforward.
And Chris Kavanagh, who was the referee for Sunday's game between Manchester City and Liverpool, knows all about them.
As Virgil van Dijk's header made its way towards goal, Andy Robertson ducked to allow the ball to go into the net. The defender was standing offside, and the assistant raised his flag for offside.
This decision was not about line of vision, but "an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball".
The offside law does not require a referee to think City goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma would definitely save it, only that his ability to do so has been affected. It is the ducking motion which is absolutely crucial because it could put doubt into the goalkeeper's mind about a potential touch.
If Donnarumma had not been standing close to Robertson, or if the player was not in the six-yard box, the case for offside would have been weak.
But there must be an argument that Donnarumma had been impacted. For that reason, as the on-field team gave offside, it was not likely to be overturned through a video assistant referee review.
It is a borderline call, but still supportable as an on-field decision.
However, officials are advised it is usually best to leave complicated subjective offside decisions to the VAR, and if that had happened Liverpool were likely to have had had an equaliser.
A good comparison is a disallowed Everton goal against Manchester United in March 2020. Dominic Calvert-Lewin's shot was deflected towards goal, and an offside Gylfi Sigurdsson, who was sitting inside the six-yard box, withdrew his legs to allow the ball through. The referee? Chris Kavanagh.
We can compare it to a goal which was given through VAR last season. John Stones' late winner for Manchester City at Wolves was chalked off on the field for Bernardo Silva being in the line of vision of goalkeeper Jose Sa.
But while he was close to Sa, he was not in front of him and, unlike Robertson, he did not duck out of the path of the ball. The referee? Chris Kavanagh.
We have seen a couple of similar situations this season - a Manchester United goal at Nottingham Forest, and one for Leeds against Bournemouth - where an offside player has made a small movement away from the ball.
In those cases it was felt that movement and the positions of the players (they were not inside the six-yard box) was not enough to affect the goalkeeper.
'Missing Diaz and Alexander-Arnold's passing' - Reds' 'chemistry issue'published at 08:59 GMT 10 November
08:59 GMT 10 November
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Former Premier League midfielder Nigel Reo-Coker believes Liverpool "miss Luis Diaz" and that is why they are struggling to create opportunities this season.
"What he did for Liverpool was like what Jeremy Doku did for Manchester City on Sunday," said Reo-Coker on BBC Radio 5 Live's Football Daily podcast. "He was a dribbler and although he doubled up defensively for Liverpool, he was also still able to carry the ball and ride three or four challenges to make something happen.
"It would carry the team up the pitch and they don't have that many players now who can do that.
"They let Diaz leave for Bayern Munich, where he is doing the same thing he did for Liverpool and becoming an extra level of threat for them.
"Trent Alexander-Arnold got a lot of stick for leaving but his passing ability is being missed on the pitch too.
"If you win a Premier League title then there is expectancy for the next season. Liverpool had a big summer of recruitment, with people saying they 'won' the transfer market, and it just hasn't happened for them yet.
"It is a chemistry issue, but it is not a crisis."
'I thought it was a goal' - Rooney on Van Dijk's disallowed headerpublished at 08:14 GMT 10 November
08:14 GMT 10 November
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Former Manchester United striker Wayne Rooney believes Liverpool should have been awarded a first-half goal in their 3-0 defeat by Manchester City.
Virgil van Dijk's headed effort hit the back of the net in the 38th minute when the visitors were trailing 1-0. However, the goal was ruled out for offside - with Andy Robertson ducking out of the way of the ball in the six-yard box.
Speaking on The Wayne Rooney Show, the ex-England captain said: "I thought it was a goal.
"I get the rules, but Gianluigi Donnarumma can see it the whole way and he makes the decision to go for the ball and gets nowhere near it.
"I don't think Robertson is standing in front of the keeper. I know he's close to him, but I think he doesn't impact Donnarumma.
"He sees the ball all the way, does a full dive for it and gets nowhere near it, so I thought that should have stood.
"He ducked but he's not in the eyeline of the goalkeeper. He's not affecting Donnarumma's decision.
"His weight is on his right foot and then he's tried to shift quick and dive. He hasn't waited for Robertson to make the decision then dive afterwards."
How Liverpool's tactics helped Doku shinepublished at 07:14 GMT 10 November
07:14 GMT 10 November
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Jeremy Doku was absolutely brilliant for Manchester City in their 3-0 win on Sunday, but Liverpool's tactics were the reason he was able to run riot down their right.
Without Mohamed Salah tracking back, Arne Slot's side were always so vulnerable down that flank and I felt sorry for Conor Bradley, who was trying to stop Doku but had Nico O'Reilly to worry about too.
Even if Liverpool had found some better balance, and had a winger who gave Bradley more defensive support or condensed City's space, then with the way Doku was playing he would still have been almost impossible to stop.
Doku was a pleasure to watch, irrespective of who you support and who you wanted to win. You had to admire his skill, pace, strength and bravery - and his goal was just amazing.
The way Liverpool were set up, though, actually helped him shine.
He was electric and the game's star man. This was the best I have seen him play in a City shirt, but Salah not being asked to defend made it so easy for him.
It became a really productive area of the pitch for City, and was one of the reasons they won so comfortably in the end.
Liverpool analysis: Slot brought down to earth by dominant Man Citypublished at 20:36 GMT 9 November
20:36 GMT 9 November
Phil McNulty Chief football writer
Image source, Getty Images
Liverpool's recent upturn in form brought impressive victories against Aston Villa and Real Madrid, following six defeats in seven games.
But it was ended brutally in the face of Man City superiority.
Arne Slot's side were put firmly in their place as once again Liverpool's defence looked vulnerable, while their build-up was ponderous, lacking sharpness.
Slot was infuriated when Virgil Van Dijk's header was ruled out for offside, but City were already the more powerful and creative team and that moment happened firmly against the run of play.
Once Van Dijk deflected Nico Gonzalez's shot past Giorgi Mamardashvili seconds before half-time, the contest was effectively over.
This was another disappointing day for Liverpool's £116m summer signing Florian Wirtz, who looked lightweight in the face of City's physical challenges, and it was no surprise when he was replaced by Federico Chiesa with seven minutes left.
Wirtz, who rejected City's advances to join Liverpool from Bayer Leverkusen in the summer, felt the full force of the home fans' mockery as they chanted "What a waste of money" while he walked off disconsolately.
It is too early write off a title challenge after 11 games, especially when it involves the team who lifted the trophy in May, but Liverpool are now eight points behind leaders Arsenal and have lost five times already.
With City picking up ominous momentum, Slot's side face an increasingly uphill struggle to retain their crown.
Man City 3-0 Liverpool: What Slot saidpublished at 19:43 GMT 9 November
19:43 GMT 9 November
Media caption,
Liverpool boss Arne Slot, speaking to Sky Sports after they were defeated 3-0 by Man City: "Very difficult first half for us. You almost expect it when you go here - they were pressing us really high.
"We struggled a lot in the first half. You were hoping to get to the end of the first half 1-0. Then, of course, there was five or10 minutes that were influential to the game. Instead of going 1-1 or 2-1 it was 2-0 at half-time.
"First half, it was obvious that they were better than us."
On Virgil van Dijk's disallowed goal: "It is difficult to give my view. It is obvious and clear that the wrong decision has been made at least in my opinion.
"He didn't interfere at all with what the goalkeeper could do. Immediately after the game someone showed me the goal that the same referee allowed - City against Wolves last season.
"So it took the linesman 13 seconds to raise his flag to say it was offside. So there was clearly communication, but as I said that could have influenced the game in a positive way for us."
On the game: "Set-pieces can make a difference - now we conceded from set-pieces. That was a fair reflection us being 2-0 down.
"The game went as it went, we would have been lucky going in 1-0 down at half-time. So it has been an influential decision.
"You cannot predict how the second half would have gone. It was obvious and clear that City were the better team in the first half.
"They were dominating the game and they were better than us. We were having a lot of problems and trouble bringing the ball out from the back, so we lost it early and they started playing."
On the penalty: "The only thing I could see there was contact - but after the contact he was able to put his foot into the position exactly how he wanted to put his foot."
On fixing a lot of problems: "I don't know if that is the situation. It has been very good start of the week with a very bad end to the week.
"Today, I don't think, apart from that decision, that it was ever gong to be our game. In general they were the better team - we need to improve - but I didn't need this game to know this.
"I saw a team trying to come back into the game, but it wasn't enough today and that is clear.
"Last season when were eight points clear and it didn't feel like it was done already.
"We shouldn't talk about the the number one position, we should focus on our performance that needs to be better."
Man City v Liverpool: Team news published at 15:37 GMT 9 November
15:37 GMT 9 November
Manchester City are unchanged from their last Premier League game against Bournemouth, but make three changes to the side that beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Captain Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias and Rayan Cherki all start, with Tijjani Reijnders, John Stones and Savinho dropping to the bench.
Midfielder Rodri is not involved for Pep Guardiola's side.
Manchester City XI: Donnarumma, Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly, Gonzalez, Silva, Foden, Cherki, Doku, Haaland.
Subs: Trafford, Reijnders, Stones, Ake, Marmoush, Ait-Nouri, Savinho, Bobb, Lewis
Liverpool are unchanged from their impressive victory over Real Madrid during the week, which means Florian Wirtz - who was linked with a move to City during the summer - keeps his place in the side.
The Reds have options to bring on in attack as Alexander Isak is on the bench, alongside Cody Gakpo and Federico Chiesa.
Liverpool XI: Marmadashvili, Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Salah, Wirtz, Ekitike.
You can also listen to today's 5 Live Premier League commentaries on most smart speakers. Just say "ask BBC Sounds to play Aston Villa v Bournemouth" or "ask BBC Sounds to play Man City v Liverpool", for instance.
Sutton's predictions: Man City v Liverpoolpublished at 10:51 GMT 9 November
10:51 GMT 9 November
Did Liverpool turn a corner with their great win over Real Madrid in midweek? Maybe, but this will show us where they are really at.
I feel like these two teams have cancelled each other out when they have met in recent years, but this time it feels like a game they both have to try to win - and it is Manchester City I'm backing to come out on top.
The big call for all Fantasy Premier League managers is whether to triple-captain Erling Haaland. I'm not going to do that, but I do think he will score. Seriously, how can you go into any game at the moment and think that he won't?
Whoever wins this, I feel like both teams are fighting for second place anyway, because I don't see anyone catching Arsenal now.
People sometimes get angry when I say things like that, but I do think they will win the title from here and I've changed my prediction from before the season started when I went for Liverpool.
I don't often do that so early, but I don't think Liverpool can win it any more. We've already seen in the first 10 games how they are too vulnerable defensively, and then you look at how good Arsenal are at the back.
It is a similar story with City. I feel they will need Rodri at his very best to push the Gunners, but his injury problems don't appear to be over.
Man City v Liverpool: Key stats and talking pointspublished at 14:18 GMT 8 November
14:18 GMT 8 November
Tom McCoy BBC Sport journalist
Pep Guardiola celebrates a milestone versus a Liverpool side who beat Manchester City twice last season. BBC Sport examines some of the key themes before Sunday's match.
Guardiola takes charge of his 1,000th game as a manager this weekend, reaching the landmark against the club that have proved his most formidable adversary.
The Catalan has lost a joint-high 10 fixtures versus Liverpool in his career, equalling his number of defeats against Tottenham.
Meanwhile, of the clubs he has faced six times or more, the Reds are the only team against whom he has a losing record. The 54-year-old has won six and drawn eight of 24 meetings, with the 2019 Community Shield, won by City on penalties, classified as a draw.
His side lost both of last season's encounters 2-0 but will take confidence from their strong recent record at the Etihad Stadium.
City have registered victories in 11 of their past 12 home matches in all competitions, winning each of the last six by at least two goals.
Erling Haaland, meanwhile, has 27 goals in 17 games for club and country this season and 98 in 107 career appearances in the Premier League. He needs two more to become the fastest player to reach a century in the competition, breaking the record set by Alan Shearer after 124 matches.
Are Liverpool getting back to their best?
After a recent run of six defeats in seven games, Liverpool have claimed consecutive wins against Aston Villa and Real Madrid, with Tuesday's Champions League victory particularly impressive.
Though the Reds only had 38.8% possession, their lowest figure since March, they kept the visitors at arm's length and were the far more threatening side.
The Merseysiders had nine shots on target to their opponents' two, while their expected goals figure of 2.51 dwarfed Real's tally of 0.45 – the Spaniards' lowest xG in any competition for a year.
Mohamed Salah had a relatively quiet night in midweek, registering just two shots and completing only 11 passes.
But if there is one man likely to spoil Guardiola's millennial milestone it is the 33-year-old Egyptian, who has been directly involved in 15 Premier League goals against Manchester City, more than any other player in the competition's history.
'Liverpool pushed us to be better' - Guardiola on key career rivalrypublished at 12:31 GMT 8 November
12:31 GMT 8 November
Image source, Getty Images
Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola says Liverpool have delivered the rivalry of his career as he prepares to manage his 1,000th game.
Guardiola's side host the Reds on Sunday, the latest fixture in a back-and-forth rivalry that has seen the clubs consistently compete for the title - scooping the last eight in a row between them.
Across his career, Guardiola has faced Liverpool 24 times, winning on six occasions and losing 10 times.
While he will come up against Arne Slot on Sunday, the Anfield club's former boss Jurgen Klopp has beaten Guardiola 11 times across their careers, while the City manager has 10 wins against the German.
On Friday, Guardiola explained if he could choose one club to face in his 1,000th game, Liverpool would be fitting.
"If I was to choose one rival, personal, of course I want to share it with many people but that would be the best," he said.
"Liverpool have been the biggest rival in this country so it could not be better to be honest. Jurgen Klopp gave me a lot and I miss him. It was a sense of to beat that guy how much I have to work and be better. I think we pushed Liverpool to be better and Liverpool pushed us to be better, that's for sure."
Image source, Getty Images
