Prisons plan will fall short by 2027, watchdog warns

Government plans to tackle the prisons crisis will fall short of thousands of cells and be £4bn over-budget in two years' time, a watchdog has warned.

A critical National Audit Office (NAO) report flags that current expansion plans are "insufficient to meet projected future demand", with a projected shortage of 12,400 prison places by the end of 2027.

The government has already released 5,500 prisoners early in an emergency plan to free up cells and stop the justice system collapsing, and has also announced a sentencing review aimed at providing more non-custodial sentences.

The NAO report said the crisis was a "consequence of previous governments' failure" to properly fund prisons at the same time as increasing the length of prison sentences.

The watchdog also said Boris Johnson's government's pledge to create an extra 20,000 cells spaces is now not expected to be met until 2031 - about five years later than promised.

Only a third, 6,518, of the promised spaces were available as of September and the scheme is also running at least £4.2bn over-budget, the report says.

Prisons are still expected to reach critical capacity again by July, with fresh prison population projections due to be published by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) on Thursday.

The NAO also warned the government department "does not have any contingency plans to increase prison capacity as it views it has limited options left to do this".

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chairman of the Commons Public Accounts Committee which scrutinises government spending, said prisons were "already at the brink" and it was "unacceptable" that plans would not meet future demand.

"The MoJ has been in firefighting mode, prioritising short-term solutions to the crisis," he said.

"These are not only expensive but also increase risks to prisoner, staff and public safety.

"The government must pull together a coherent and viable long-term plan for a prison estate that meets demand and delivers value for taxpayers' money."