Modi and Xi meet: Trump as the wildcard and other takeaways

Modi and Xi posed for pictures in Tianjin on Monday

The view from India

Just a few months ago, the armed forces of India and Pakistan were locked in a brief but deadly conflict.

The conflict indirectly involved a third nation – China. Pakistan's armed forces heavily used China-made equipment, including fighter jets and radar systems.

A senior army officer in Delhi said Beijing also provided "live inputs" to Pakistan on Indian positions.

India didn't take a public stand against China, but this left many asking if Delhi should continue on the path of normalising relations with Beijing.

Less than six months later, peace talks between the two Asian giants have been turbocharged by decisions taken thousands of miles away in Washington DC.

The Trump administration has imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imports, saying Delhi was being punished for its refusal to stop buying oil from Russia.

Delhi had two clear choices after this stunning onslaught from a trusted ally.

The first was to cave in and stop buying Russian oil. But it has refused to do so, largely because Russia is an "all-weather" ally and giving into pressure doesn't suit Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's strongman image.

The second was to stand firm and seek other opportunities and India appears to have to chosen this option for now.

It's also pragmatic to look no further when your neighbour is the world's second-largest economy and a global manufacturing powerhouse.

It was in this context, that Modi met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Tianjin over the weekend.

Statements from the two sides were not heavy on details, though they promised to work through their differences to benefit their collective population of 2.8 billion people.

The immediate takeaway from the meeting was the resumption of direct flights between the two countries and making the process of issuing visas simpler.

But beyond the promise of "the elephant and the dragon" coming together, the two countries still have major roadblocks to clear before they are able to engage meaningfully.

Their first challenge comes from their immediate history.

Modi has invested personally in the India-China relationship since coming to power in 2014, visiting the neighbouring country five times until 2018.

But the 2020 border clash put brakes on this momentum and it has taken seven long years for Modi to visit China again.

The key to making further progress will depend on how the two countries deal with their border issues.

Tens of thousands of troops from both countries are still deployed at their contested borders - though there are ongoing talks between their civilian and military leaders to ease the situation.

The US-imposed 50% tariffs on India has caused some anger

Both Chinese and Indian readouts after the meeting this weekend talked about maintaining peace at the border and "not turning their differences into disputes".

For India, there is the issue of a burgeoning trade deficit with China, amounting to more than $99bn (£73bn).

Both countries still have high tariffs and duties against each other in many sectors.

Beijing would want India to open its market of 1.4 billion people to Chinese products, but Delhi would be wary of doing that without addressing the deficit.

The outreach to China, which started with Modi meeting Xi in Kazan last year, may have been supercharged by Trump tariffs, but ground realities for India remain unchanged.

The Modi-Xi meeting is being seen as part of India's policy of "strategic autonomy" but it will also cause more geopolitical challenges for Delhi.

India is due to host the Quad (which includes Japan, Australia and the US) summit later this year. The forum was largely seen as a challenge to China's dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.

It's not clear if Trump will attend, but if he does and says something against China, it will immediately test the renewed synergy between Delhi and Beijing.

Delhi is also part of several other multilateral forums that are perceived as anti-China and anti-Russia.

How Delhi plays its strategic autonomy in the next few months will very much influence the direction India-China ties take.

For now, it's clear that India-US ties are at an all-time low. A Trump aide recently called the Russia-Ukraine conflict "Modi's war".

Delhi has also consistently denied that Trump played any role in the ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May – this has become a constant irritant for the US president.

Despite this, India has refrained from imposing retaliatory tariffs against the US and has left the door ajar for further negotiations. After all, the US is India's biggest trading partner.

Will going closer to China help India's negotiations with the US or will it have the opposite impact?

This is the question that will likely dominate geopolitical discussions in Delhi and beyond in the coming months.

Tensions ran high following the Galwan Valley incident in 2020 - but they have since cooled down somewhat

The view from China

When Xi Jinping met Narendra Modi he used what has become his favourite catchphrase for China-India relations: "The dragon and the elephant should come together".

During "this period of transformation," he added that it was vital for the world's most populous nations to be friends and good neighbours.

In a case of spectacular timing, Prime Minister Modi's visit has coincided with Donald Trump's tariffs of up to 50% on India exports to the US.

This represents quite a hit on the country's economy so New Delhi would be looking around for other business partners.

Look no further than right here, Xi may well say, as his administration attempts to rebuild from the wreckage of China-India relations following years of tension between the two.

And, if their official readouts are anything to go by, Modi's attendance at the Tianjin Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation seems to have paid off.

His published comments to Xi were much more specific than the those coming the other way.

There is now a very good window for Beijing and New Delhi to repair their strained relationship.

China's leader knows that Donald Trump's tariff onslaught is pushing India away from the United States and that this great economic rival needs other partnerships.

Considerable obstacles remain.

They include China's backing of India's key rival Pakistan; interaction of all types has been in the doldrums; angry rhetoric from both governments (over many years) has created a climate of suspicion between the Asian heavyweights and their high-mountain border dispute has stirred nationalist sentiment on both sides of the frontier.

However, with the latter of these, this meeting would appear to confirm that pressure has already eased.

Last Thursday China's Defence Ministry spokesman was talking up the success of discussions between the representatives of China and India aimed at stopping the clashes along their disputed border.

He spoke of "win-win cooperation" and celebrating the 75th anniversary of ties between the two nations.

Xi also knows that the symbolism of having Modi in China right now is considerable, that images of them shaking hands and standing side-by-by side – as the Trump tariffs on India kick in – can be a powerful propaganda tool which is made even more significant by the fact that this is a multilateral gathering.

The two will not only be joined by Vladimir Putin but by the other SCO governments like Turkey (a member of Nato), Saudi Arabia (a key US ally), Iran (a key enemy of the US) as well as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan.

And all of this in the days before Beijing holds a massive display of military might with a parade through the heart of the capital.