Size doesn't matter - it's all about speed

  • Published
Rishi SunakImage source, Getty Images

The size of yesterday's intervention by the chancellor was impressive.

At over 15% of total national income it's a package that measures up favourably against measures announced by other countries including France and the US.

However, in this fast-moving environment it's not about the size and supply of credit, it's about speed and demand.

Far and away the most popular measure among business owners was the immediate 12-month holiday on business rates.

But to be honest, most businesses I've spoken to in the last 48 hours had no intention of paying their rates anyway.

That also applies to VAT which the government may waive imminently.

Hospitality groups are also circulating a template letter for members to fill in with their own details to ask for significant rent reductions.

But again, many are taking matters into their own hands by withholding rent payments.

But the biggest cost most businesses face are staff wages, and it is here that the government will need to think boldly and creatively to prevent what is a severe but hopefully temporary crisis turning into a long-term economic malaise.

The head of the CBI has urged the government to use the National Insurance system to reverse the flow of cash from government to business.

Printing cash

In the US, the government is considering "helicopter money" - using the central bank to create money which is sent directly to citizens.

It is a measure of how serious the current situation is that this is getting serious consideration - having been dismissed by most during the financial crisis of ten years ago as a step too far.

The supermarkets will be key in any strategy and we are already seeing them cut opening times, ration popular items and accelerate payments to their suppliers.

Delivery services like Deliveroo are working up proposals to cut the price of using their app, but as one hospitality business owner told me, the problem is that "many of these technology platforms are not yet turning a profit so their ability to help is limited".

The Business Secretary, Alok Sharma, told the BBC that new measures to help firms are imminent.

Getting ahead of this crisis will be a very significant challenge. The usual rule book is being ripped up.

Brexit extension?

One question that business owners are repeatedly asking me is whether the government is serious about pressing ahead with a potentially disruptive departure from the EU this December.

Ministers have already conceded that there will be additional cost and friction - HMRC estimates that over 200 million additional customs declarations will cost UK businesses £6.5bn and require considerable management focus.

Given that the negotiations will be severely disrupted by this health emergency - many are asking whether it would be wiser to request an extension of the transition period beyond the end of December.