Andy Verity
BBC Economics correspondent

Figures will be released shortly that are expected to show the rate of inflation has slowed down in the year to November compared with the previous figure.

Analysts expect the figures to show a rise in the cost of living of 10.9% – compared with 11.1% in the year to October – as global inflationary pressures start to ease.

If the average forecast proves accurate, a 10.9% rise in the cost of living would still be the second fastest rate of inflation in more than four decades.

It’s been driven up, overwhelmingly, by global inflationary pressures – and global pressures are also expected to drive it down again.

Wholesale gas for delivery in March for example still costs nearly twice what it did a year ago – but less than half its peak price in the summer.

And at $81 a barrel, the price of Brent crude oil is only $7 higher than a year ago. In the United States yesterday, the markets rallied after inflation fell back by more than expected to 7.1%, down from 7.7% the previous month.

Some UK-specific factors have exacerbated the situation here – such as post-Brexit trade barriers boosting the cost of importing food, and the weakening value of the pound over the past year.

Nevertheless, the rate of inflation is expected slowly to fall from its peak in the coming months – to average 7.4% in 2023.

Hannah Miller
BBC Breakfast business presenter

When I meet Kayleigh Mason at her home in Walsall she tells me she’s daunted by Christmas. Her 10-year-old son William loves helicopers, space, gaming, coding and animals but this year he knows not to ask for many presents.

“He knows that things are tight,” his mum says.

William has special educational needs and a progressive muscle wasting disease which mean he finds it difficult to walk, swallow and grip with his hands.

“I don’t think anybody realises the additional costs of having an SEN child or a disabled relative in the family,” says Kayleigh.

She tells me she worries about not being able to afford diesel to take William to his vital hospital appointments in Oswestry, Birmingham and Stoke-on-Trent.

Kayleigh, who works at a bakery, said: “Yesterday I had to go to work at 4am, pick him up and travel 110 miles with him for an appointment.

It was an 18-20 hour day so I could get to work and not lose any money.” William can sometimes have two hospital appointments a week, she says.

“Then there’s the electricity bills, as we have a wet room with a pump, the extra adaptations that he needs that don’t come on the NHS, all those costs are a massive impact on us.”

Kayleigh says she usually loves Christmas but doesn’t want to think about this year.

“I haven’t put any decorations up I just want it to be over as quickly as possible this year. I want to make it special but it’s hard.”

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

It is well worth repeating that inflation affects people in different ways.

The ONS gives us a general rate of price increases - but some have a higher rate than others.

Why? Those on lower incomes, for example, spend a higher proportion of their income on food and domestic energy - the cost of which have risen sharply.

So, they are likely to have a higher than typical personal inflation rate.

Young people may be in a similar position, and a survey by the TSB bank suggests many have been turning to debt to cover these bills.

Its own internal data suggests that the proportion of 18 to 24-year-old customers going overdrawn is 10% higher than a year ago. People who struggle to make debt repayments can quite quickly find themselves with a problem.

Ramzan Karmali
BBC Business reporter

Jarrod Ayling, chief executive of Purple Jay Nurseries in London gave staff a 7% pay rise in April and this month has put wages up by another 9% - a total increase of 16%.

He says he upped wages after staff told him they were struggling to pay bills and some had asked for advances.

The nursery chain, which has four branches across South East London and looks after about 350 children, is also facing soaring electricity and food bills.

"We are going to have to pass these costs on to parents realistically and of course it's going to put pressure on them because their bills are going up.

"We are noticing that parents are reducing hours and days at the moment...and the risk is that they'll leave us altogether."

Mr Ayling also says he fears if he does not put up wages in line with competitors he could lose the staff he has.

He says: "It's extremely hard to get staff at the moment because the early years workforce has been depleted since Brexit and Covid so increasing the wage has increased the number of staff applying but it's still slim."

Dearbail Jordan & Lora Jones
Business reporters

Image source, Getty Images

Christmas dinner will be nearly 22% more expensive this year than in 2021, according to new research for the BBC.

The price of seven key items has risen by £5.36 over a year, with chipolatas - the crucial ingredient in pigs-in-blankets - seeing the steepest jump.

As households grapple with cost of living pressures, many will be looking for cheaper options for the big day.

Retail research firm Assosia analysed the average price of seven products across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons and Lidl as well as Aldi click-and-collect.

A basic Christmas dinner for five people - comprising a frozen medium-sized turkey, stuffing balls, Brussels sprouts, roast potatoes, pork chipolatas, onion gravy and mince pies for dessert - will cost £30.03 compared to £24.67 last year.

The price of every item on our list - except for the divisive Brussels sprout - has increased at more than the rate of inflation, which reached 11.1% in October.

Read more here.

Image source, .

Lower inflation does not mean prices will go down. It just means they stop rising as quickly.

The Bank previously said it expects inflation, external to peak at 11%, but this figure has now been breached. It said it thinks inflation will slow from the middle of 2023, falling to around 5% by the end of the year.

By 2024, the Bank projects it will have fallen to 1.4%. But with continuing uncertainty over energy prices and the government's tax and spending plans, it is hard to predict what will happen.

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

Monthly inflation figures, to some degree, tell us something we already know.

They quantify exactly how much prices increased in November compared with a year ago - which you may well have seen in your grocery bills and so on.

The impact, however, is forward looking. It tells us that our finances will continue to be stretched.

A survey of more than 6,000 people by the Financial Fairness Trust suggests there has been an 80% increase in the number of people who have no confidence in their financial future.

Academics say that will cause anxiety and have an impact on mental health and, as people cut back on food and heating, it could affect physical health too.

The cost of energy is a key reason why things are getting more expensive.

Oil and gas prices increased because energy was in greater demand as life got back to normal after Covid.

At the same time, the war in Ukraine meant less was available from Russia, putting further pressure on prices. The war in Ukraine also led to food prices going up, by reducing the amount of grain available.

The price of food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by 16.2% in the year to October, up from 14.5% in September.

We'll all be doing a few sums when the figures come out shortly.

To make things simple, we have a personal inflation calculator, which we've built in collaboration with the Office for National Statistics.

It shows you what the inflation rate is for your household, and identifies the items in your household budget that have gone up the most in price over the past year.

Click here to give it a go.

Image source, Getty Images

To come up with an inflation figure, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) keeps track of the prices of hundreds of everyday items.

This is known as the "basket, external of goods", external.

The basket is constantly updated. Tinned beans and sports bras were added in 2022, reflecting growing interest in plant-based diets and exercise.

Each month's inflation figure shows how much these prices have risen since the same date last year.

You can calculate inflation in a number of different ways, but the main measure is the Consumer Prices Index which was 11.1% in October.

Good morning and welcome along as we bring you latest on the rate of inflation in the UK.

At 07:00 GMT, figures showing how fast prices are rising will be released by the Office for National Statistics.

Inflation hit 11.1% in the UK in October, the highest it’s been for 41 years and up from 10.1% in September, largely as a result of rising food and energy prices.

The Bank of England put up interest rates to 3% in a bid to cool spiralling inflation.

It’s possible that the big leap in inflation in October will mark the peak, according to analysts Capital Economics.

Stay with us.