Summary

  • The UK's inflation rate stayed at 8.7% in May - the same as the April rate

  • It stops the downward trend in UK inflation figures, which had been falling after a peak of 11.1% last year

  • The Office for National Statistics says rising prices for "air travel, recreational and cultural goods" helped keep inflation high

  • Falling prices for motor fuel were the largest "downward contribution"

  • Prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks rose in May - but by less than in May 2022

  • "Core" inflation - which strips out energy and food costs - is at the highest rate since 1992

  • And separate figures show UK debt is now higher than annual GDP for the first time since 1961

  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged to halve inflation this year

  1. Thanks for joining uspublished at 11:25 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Thank you for joining our live coverage this morning, which is closing soon.

    We'll be back tomorrow when the Bank of England is expected to increase interest rates - which has a knock-on effect on mortgage rates.

    The writers on today's live page were Tom Espiner, James Gregory and James Harness. The page was edited by Emily McGarvey.

    Read our main inflation story here.

  2. What has been happening today?published at 11:23 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Before we go, here's a reminder of what has been happening this morning:

    • Inflation, which measures the pace of price rises, stayed at 8.7% in May - the same as April
    • That means something that cost £1 last May now typically costs more than £1.08
    • Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose by 7.1% - its highest level for 31 years
    • The pace of food prices fell slightly to 18.3%
    • The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 4.75%, up from 4.5%, tomorrow
    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the government would "not hesitate" in its resolve to support the Bank, but Labour's Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves blamed the government for failing to "get a grip" of inflation
    • And separate figures show UK debt is now higher than annual GDP for the first time since 1961
  3. Analysis

    Mortgage rates expected to risepublished at 11:15 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    These aren’t great figures for anyone borrowing money.

    For millions of people, of course, the biggest loan is their mortgage.

    This continues a chain reaction which sees sticky inflation create an expectation in the markets of further interest rate rises by the Bank of England, and - in turn - more mortgage rate rises.

    A typical two-year mortgage deal now has an interest rate of 6.15%, meaning those rolling off cheaper fixed deals face having to pay hundreds of pounds more a month in repayments on their next deal.

    After today’s figures, analysts and mortgage brokers expect that typical rate to rise further.

  4. How expensive is the food we buy?published at 11:07 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    We've taken today's inflation rate - which has remained at 8.7% - and compared the price of certain items to last May.

    A chart showing how food prices have increased in the year to May
  5. BBC Verify

    How does UK food inflation compare with other European countries?published at 11:01 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Chart comparing food price inflation in the UK, Germany, Portugal and Sweden for the past year. All four rose sharply but all except the UK have fallen back in recent months.

    Today’s inflation figures show that the rate at which food prices are increasing in the UK has fallen slightly, but costs are still going up quickly.

    Yesterday, Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride told Radio 4: "In Germany, Portugal and Sweden it's running at about 20%, so higher than it is here."

    He was talking about figures from earlier in the year. But it is not true for the April figures (which he would have seen) or indeed the May figures (which came out this morning).

    In the UK food prices went up by more than 18% in the year to May. By comparison, in the countries that Stride was talking about, the rate of increase has fallen.

    In Portugal food inflation is below 10%. In Germany the figure is 14.5%.

    You can read more about why UK food prices may be falling more slowly in the UK here.

  6. Core inflation rises to 31 year highpublished at 10:51 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    While overall inflation has remained the same and has been on a general downward trajectory this year, core Consumer Price Index inflation has risen to 7.1% in May - that's up from 6.8% in April and the highest its been since 1992.

    Core inflation excludes the price of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco and is seen as a key figure for the Bank of England when it sets interest rates.

    A chart of Office for National Statistics figures showing core inflation has risen to 7.1%.
  7. WATCH: Short-term mortgage support won't reduce inflation - Huntpublished at 10:44 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Media caption,

    Jeremy Hunt says the UK needs to 'squeeze every last drop' of inflation out of the economy

    Earlier we spoke to the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt who reiterated that although he understands the pressures inflation and interest rate rises have on family budgets, he does not believe mortgage relief will solve the problem.

    Watch the clip above to hear what he says.

  8. Mortgage rates likely to rise for some homeownerspublished at 10:40 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    The Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates from 4.5% to 4.75% on Thursday as it strives to bring down inflation.

    Some economists are saying the Bank could tighten the screws even further, and go for a 0.5% jump.

    This means mortgage rates are likely to go up again for people looking to re-mortgage, and for homeowners on variable rates.

    Around 800,000 people are expected to re-mortgage next year.

    Today it was announced that the rate for a typical two-year fixed mortgage deal was 6.15%. And the standard variable rate as of 1 June 2023 was 7.52%, according to financial data firm Moneyfacts.

    Mortgage lenders have been pulling deals and rapidly putting up rates in recent weeks.

    And yesterday the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt ruled out any major scheme to bail out homeowners.

  9. 'Hunt has no idea what it's like for people on the ground'published at 10:33 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Radio 5 Live's Nicky Campbell has been asking his audience if inflation is affecting them.

    Karen in Wiltshire says she's currently unable to work as the cost of a second car and childcare is too expensive.

    "It's all very well a politician saying 'we've just got to hold on'," she says. "Well, he might be able to hold on but that doesn't mean everybody else can."

    Diane in Haworth, West Yorkshire, runs a small shop with four employees.

    She says if her customers don't have enough money to buy from her then she won't be able to pay her staff wages.

    Speaking about the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, she says he has "no idea what it's like on the ground for people with no money".

    Bob in Welshpool says he doesn't understand the logic of putting interest rates to cool down an overheated economy.

    "How can anybody look around at the country as it is at the moment and describe this as an overheated consumer economy is beyond me because people are struggling," he says.

    "It isn't going to stop spending because they're already not overspending... we're struggling with food, fuel and accommodation."

  10. BoE must create a recession to curb inflation - economistpublished at 10:28 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    A headshot of Karen WardImage source, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
    Image caption,

    Karen Ward says the Bank will have to "create a recession"

    The Bank of England will have to “create a recession” to bring inflation down, says a member of the chancellor’s economic advisory council.

    Karen Ward told the BBC’s Today programme that there are signs that a price-wage spiral is emerging, which the Bank "has to nip in the bud".

    It has to create "uncertainty and frailty” so companies feel nervous about the future, says Ward.

    This “weakness” in economic activity “eventually gets rid of inflation," she adds.

    Ward, who is also a strategist at JP Morgan, says the Bank made a “slight misjudgement” about the strength of domestic inflation, as it thought price increases in food and energy caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would “come and quickly go”.

    “That’s just not the right narrative now.”

  11. What's happened so far this morning?published at 10:23 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    The latest inflation figures were revealed this morning at 07:00 BST by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Here are the key things to know:

    • Inflation, which measures the pace prices rise at, stayed at 8.7% in May, the same as April
    • The pace of food prices fell slightly to 18.3% from April's 19.0% but they remain much higher than a year ago
    • The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 4.75%, up from 4.5%, in a bid to reduce inflation
    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the government would "not hesitate" in its resolve to support the Bank as it "seeks to squeeze inflation out of our economy"
    • Core inflation – which strips out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco - rose by 7.1% in the year to May, the highest level since 1992
    • Other figures show UK debt is now higher than annual GDP for the first time since 1961
    • Labour’s Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves blamed the government for failing to "get a grip" of inflation while Lib Dem Treasury Spokesperson Sarah Olney said homeowners now “face the likelihood of even more interest rate hikes”
  12. Analysis

    Have Bank of England's rate hikes become less effective?published at 09:57 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Dharshini David
    Economics Correspondent

    Hiking rates should persuade consumers to spend less - as their cost of borrowing rises or rates on savings accounts increase - giving businesses less scope to raise prices.

    But that lever may have become less effective.

    Twenty years ago, over seven out of 10 residential mortgages were on variable or tracker rates, immediately impacted by rate hikes. Today, it’s 15%. Even adding in the 1.8 million who are remortgaging this year, it’s still, contrary to a couple of decades ago, the minority of mortgage holders affected. The impact of rate hikes is less widespread and is taking longer to filter through.

    Banks and building societies have been slow to pass on rate hikes to savers this time - gives customers less of an incentive to stash cash.

    Higher rates also should mean businesses have less scope to give workers inflation-matching pay rises (which may, the Bank fears, fuel further inflation) - but worker shortages makes it harder to resist wage demands.

    But with these figures suggesting there’s more spending to be targeted, the Bank may be feeling more trigger happy when it comes to raising rates. There’s fewer mortgage holders in the firing line but they’ll feel particularly acute pain.

  13. 'I'm being hit by long Covid and cost of living crisis'published at 09:38 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Faisal Islam
    Economics editor

    Andrew Wood

    Andrew Wood is a sports psychologist based in Shrewsbury who worked with the England Blind Football Team and at a university.

    He was physically fit and used to run ultra-marathons until he caught Covid. This turned into long Covid, leaving him unable to work.

    At his worst points during 2022 he was bedbound and unable to talk. Now he is also struggling with the cost of living crisis.

    "I lost both my jobs, almost lost our house, and then everything has gone up in price - petrol prices, food prices, our weekly shop prices, the gas bill seems to be gone up, electricity bills have gone up and also mortgage rates," he says. "And it's not by a small margin either."

    Wood estimates his monthly payments will double when his mortgage deal comes up for renewal in the next couple of weeks.

    "It is overwhelming," he says. "Especially when you've got two children and are paying for child care and schools and clubs.

    "You're trying to be the best parent that you possibly can be, but you have to compromise within all of those things. To try and make it work I guess."

  14. Markets expect interest rates to risepublished at 09:24 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    The rapid pace of price rises in the UK has been more "sticky" than in other big economies in the world, with inflation running at the highest in the G7, ahead of Italy, which recorded a rate of 8.0% in May.

    Markets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates on Thursday to 4.75% from 4.5%.

    Before today's inflation data, markets had predicted UK rates to get as high as 6% by early 2024.

    International comparison of inflation ratesImage source, .
  15. 'So tired of hearing that interest rates must rise'published at 09:12 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Sean Farrington
    Presenter, Today programme business and Wake up to Money

    Listeners have been getting in touch with BBC Radio 5 Live's Wake Up to Money in the wake of the latest inflation figures. Bob from the Welsh Borders texted to say he is:

    Quote Message

    So tired of hearing the mantra that interest rates must rise to tackle inflation”

    This is a view that summed up many listeners and a few bosses I've spoken to this morning.

    The boss of one of our biggest food wholesalers, Bidfood, told me on the Today programme that raising rates is not the right thing to do.

    Quote Message

    It’s stifling the economy. Inflation is coming from external factors, it’s not coming from flagrant spending by the population."

    Plenty need convincing, as mortgage rates and borrowing costs rocket. And listeners aren’t short of alternatives.

    Here’s one from Lee in Sheffield:

    Quote Message

    Increase tax so everyone shares the pain.”

    It’s a hot debate.

  16. Which foods have gone up the most?published at 09:01 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Food prices graphImage source, .BBC

    The pace of food price rises has been absolutely through the roof - it was 19% in the year to April. It fell slightly in May, but it was still high at 18.3%.

    So what does this mean in the real world?

    Staple foods have been massively going up in price, and this chart shows which items have gone up the most.

    In May 2022, a kilogram of granulated white sugar cost 73p. That is now up to £1.10.

    A cucumber which would have cost you 57p now costs 84p.

    Baked beans that cost 76p for a can now cost £1.07.

    Add all of these price rises up over a typical shop, and many people are really feeling the pinch.

  17. Analysis

    Getting inflation down could mean cranking up interest ratespublished at 08:53 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Chris Mason
    Political editor

    Speaking to MPs, from ministers to backbenchers and across all the parties, and inflation is the big topic.

    Back to the present, if you like, after 10 days of Westminster being consumed by looking at Boris Johnson’s conduct in the rear view mirror.

    The government is in a bind: it is desperate to get inflation down, and yet it is stuck. It is desperate to be able to point to a sense of people feeling better off.

    But getting inflation down will make many people feel worse off - because the Bank of England cranking up interest rates is a key way to do it.

    Those timeless trade offs of economics and politics never go away.

    What is different this time — courtesy of the government’s colossal interventions in the last few years around Covid and soaring energy bills due to the war in Ukraine — is there is arguably a greater expectation ministers can or should intervene again.

    This expectation, or hope, extends to some Tory MPs. The former party chairman Sir Jake Berry has called, for instance, for the return of Mortgage Interest Tax Relief at Source - a Conservative policy in the 1980s and 90s.

    The Chancellor has rejected this idea.

    Privately, some ministers and Conservative MPs are exasperated, arguing that not only does there have to be a limit to what government can do and can afford, but a large scale intervention would make inflation worse.

  18. Is Brexit behind the UK's inflation shock?published at 08:49 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Union flag in appleImage source, Getty Images

    The shockwaves triggered by the impact of Russia's invasion on food and energy bills have been felt globally. But inflation in the UK has climbed faster and been more stubborn than in the US and EU.

    Some, including Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, claim Brexit may be to blame. But it's a complex picture.

    Singling out the impact of Brexit isn't easy, especially with the effects of a pandemic and a war. But there is evidence that the red tape - the form filling and other hurdles - required to bring goods into the country may have added to food bills.

    Read more here.

  19. Analysis

    Food prices fall but remain 18% higher than last yearpublished at 08:39 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    Dharshini David
    Economics Correspondent

    The retailers’ industry body, the BRC, has hailed the fall in food price inflation for the second consecutive month as “a really positive sign”.

    But this is still an exceptionally grim part of our inflation outbreak.

    Food prices are still 18% above what they were a year ago - the groceries that would have cost £60 now add up to over £70, they’ve risen over twice as fast as the general cost of living.

    Global food commodities prices fell back from the spike prompted by the war in Ukraine some months ago - so why haven’t we felt the benefits yet?

    Producers and retailers fix many contracts for the goods they buy months in advance - so changes take time to filter through. And they’ve faced soaring energy and wage bills which have been eating into profit margins.

    There are some items - eggs, cheese, milk - where prices cuts are widely appearing.

    But unless the rate of increases in overall food bills slows more drastically soon, supermarkets and manufacturers will face more awkward queries about profiteering.

  20. How much are prices rising for you?published at 08:28 British Summer Time 21 June 2023

    inflation calculatorImage source, .

    Every month there's a new figure for inflation - it estimates how much prices are rising across all the goods and services in the economy.

    As we've been reporting, in the 12 months to May 2023 the figure was 8.7%. That means things costing £1 in May 2022 cost more than £1.08 in May 2023.

    But your own inflation figure will depend on what you spend your money on.

    Our personal inflation calculator, built by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in collaboration with the BBC, shows you what the inflation rate is for your household, and identifies the items in your household budget that have gone up the most in price over the past year.

    Try our personal inflation calculator.