Summary

  • The Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged, in a surprise move

  • It had been expected to raise the base rate from 5.25% to 5.5%

  • "Inflation has fallen a lot in recent months, and we think it will continue to do so," says Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey

  • Inflation was 6.7% in August, a surprise drop from July - despite rising petrol and diesel prices

  • The previous 14 times the Bank made a decision, it opted to increase the rate, starting at the end of 2021

  • Increasing the base rate generally leads to more expensive mortgages - which is supposed to dampen consumer spending and inflation

  • "We are starting to see the tide turn against high inflation," says Chancellor Jeremy Hunt

  1. Thanks for joining uspublished at 16:13 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    That brings us to the end of our live coverage of today's interest rate decision, but there's plenty to read if you want to know more:

    • Our Business team's report on the move to keep rates at 5.25% is here
    • Find out how high rates are hitting some mortage holders here
    • Need a bit more explanation? Find out how interest rates affect you here and why the Bank of England changes them here

    This coverage was bought to you by: Lora Jones, Michael Race, Rachel Russell, Ali Abbas Ahmadi, Andre Rhoden-Paul and Jamie Whitehead, Owen Amos, Heather Sharp and Nathan Williams.

  2. What's happened today?published at 16:06 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Bank of England, 21 Sept 2023Image source, PA

    We'll soon be closing our live coverage of the Bank of England's surprise decision to leave UK interest rates unchanged - but first, here's a recap:

    • Rates were held 5.25%, bringing an end to 14 consecutive rises designed to curb soaring inflation - the rate at which prices are rising - which has been pushing up the cost of living
    • The "base rate", set by the Bank, influences how much lenders will charge borrowers who take out a mortgage, a loan or a credit card
    • The decision follows an unexpected fall in inflation in figures released yesterday
    • Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said he thinks inflation will continue to fall but warned there is "no room for complacency"
    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the UK was starting to see the "tide turn" against high inflation
    • Labour's Rachel Reeves said Britain was worse off because of 13 years of "economic chaos and instability" under the Conservatives

  3. What did we learn about the UK economy today?published at 15:56 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Michael Race
    Business reporter, BBC News

    So in a bit of surprise move today, the Bank of England decided to leave UK interest rates unchanged.

    This, it said, was due to the rate at which consumer price rises, known as inflation, was slowing down faster than expected.

    The Bank thinks price rises will continue to slow down in the next few months, which will ease the cost of living for many.

    But as well as promising inflation signs, the Bank said it was also seeing that higher interest rates were starting to hurt the UK's economy.

    Raising interest rates is a balancing act. Too little and inflation can spiral out of control, too much and it can lead to the economy shrinking, which can lead to job losses.

    With the Bank lowering its prediction for economic growth over the summer, some economists are warning that the UK might be at risk of flirting with recession - two quarters in a row where the economy shrinks.

    Even the Bank's officials were split on whether or not to raise rates again today, with a narrow 5-4 win for those wanting no change.

    Andrew Bailey, the Bank's governor, has also warned against talk of rates going down anytime soon, saying they will remain at 5.25%, and perhaps higher, "to ensure we get the job done".

  4. 'Welcome suprise' and 'more pain to come' - think tanks weigh inpublished at 15:49 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Here's a little more reaction to today's Bank of England decision to hold interest rates at 5.25%.

    Julian Jessop, economics fellow at the free market think tank, the Institute of Economic Affairs, says the decision has been a "welcome surprise" and "the Bank has got this one about right".

    "Arguably it should have paused several months ago to assess the impact of the tight squeeze that it is already in place. But it does look like interest rates have now peaked at a much lower level than many had feared," he said.

    Meanwhile, James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation think tank, which focuses on people on low-to-middle incomes, says there's "good news that rates may have peaked".

    But he says there may still be "lots of mortgage pain to come for families" as around 4.5 million families have seen mortgages rise, and another 1.5 million will see rises by the of end 2024.

    "On top of that, the Bank is clearly not saying the fight with inflation is won; the cost of living crisis is set to continue," Smith added.

  5. This affects everyone - young and oldpublished at 15:41 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    If you are young and don't own your home, you might think today's decision and other economic matters have little effect on you. That's not the case.

    For a start, if you rent, your landlord will be looking closely at what's happening, especially if they have a mortgage.

    Then there are the prospects for work. Businesses facing high borrowing costs may be less inclined to borrow to invest and expand, which is one of the factors policymakers at the Bank of England would have considered.

    Longer term is a little more complicated. If interest rates stay high then house prices may come down, making it more affordable to be a first-time buyer.

    But then, the cost of borrowing to buy that home may be painful. The cost of renting - and so not to get tied down - also depends partly on future interest rates.

    At the moment, short-term forecasts are tricky, so predicting the outlook for our finances for decades to come is nigh on impossible.

  6. Feeling the pinch? There are options...published at 15:36 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Aerial view of houses in south-west LondonImage source, PA Media

    Despite today's decision, mortgage rates are still at a 15-year high. Here are some things to consider if you are struggling to pay your mortgage.

    You may want to extend the length of the mortgage term, although that would mean paying more in total.

    You could switch to an interest-only mortgage, which would lower monthly payments. This is best as a short-term fix, otherwise you will have to pay the remaining mortgage balance at the end of the term, says Richard Dana, head of digital mortgage broker Tembo.

    Other options could include downsizing, or trying to make money out of your property, for example by renting out a parking space – there are more tips here.

    A broker can guide you through all the different options.

    If you miss two months or more in repayments you are officially in areas. Mortgage lenders must treat customers fairly and consider reasonable requests to resolve the situation.

    Read more: What happens if I am struggling to pay my mortgage?

  7. How do UK interest rates compare with other countries?published at 15:29 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    In keeping interest rates at 5.25%, the Bank of England has followed in the footsteps of America's central bank, the Federal Reserve.

    On Wednesday, the Fed kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, but rates in the US are still at the highest level in more than two decades.

    Meanwhile last week, the European Central Bank hiked Eurozone interest rates to a record high to 4%.

    Inflation, which is the rate prices rise, is falling in the UK. But at 6.7% it remains higher than in the US, which saw a rate of 3.7% in August, and the euro area, which recorded a rate of 5.2% that month.

    Graph showing international comparisons
  8. Nationwide to cut mortgage ratespublished at 15:25 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    One early mover in the mortgage sector is the UK's biggest building society, the Nationwide.

    It has just said it will reduce rates by up to 0.31 percentage points tomorrow.

    Other lenders have been nudging down the cost of their new fixed-rate mortgages recently, including announcements from TSB earlier today and NatWest yesterday.

    Henry Jordan, from the Nationwide, says the cut in funding costs in recent weeks and today's interest rate decision were behind its own policy to reduce rates.

    But remember, homeowners getting a new fixed deal will still be paying considerably more than they did under the mortgage which is coming to an end.

  9. Talk of reducing rates very premature - Baileypublished at 15:14 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey

    We've now heard a bit more from the Bank of England's governor Andrew Bailey, who has been speaking to broadcasters.

    "We've had very good news on the inflation front," Bailey says when asked if the Bank's decision today is a turning point.

    "But we can't be complacent, our job is to get inflation back down to the 2% target and sustain it there."

    He is than asked if the next change to interest rates will be to bring them down.

    "I can tell you that we have not had any discussion on the Monetary Policy Committee about reducing rates because that would be very, very premature," he says.

    Asked whether the medicine - of successive rate rises in order to tame inflation - is working, Bailey answers "yes".

    "We can see it having the effect we hoped it would and that is reducing the inflationary rate in the economy," he says.

  10. Are high interest rates good or bad news?published at 14:58 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Michael Race
    Business Reporter, BBC News

    Interest rates are still at their highest point for 15 years and the level they are affects different people in different ways.

    Mortages:

    People with variable or tracker mortgages will be breathing a sigh of relief with the news of rates being held. It means their monthly repayments will stay the same - at least until the Bank's next rate decision.

    Those looking to secure new fixed-rate deals will still be faced with much more expensive deals than in recent years, but because lenders tend to price in rises ahead of an interest rate decision, mortgage rates could fall slightly in the coming days.

    Loans and credit cards:

    Because rates are unchanged, charges will remain at the same level for loans and credit cards that don't have fixed interest charges.

    Savings:

    Higher interest rates mean savers can earn more interest on the money in their bank accounts. Analysts suggest that after today's decision, banks will likely keep their rates largely the same for now, but the very best deals may not be around for much longer

    Pensions:

    Recent interest rate hikes have been good news for people on the cusp of retirement, who have benefited from better annuity rates, which determine how much guaranteed income a person gets when they swap some or all of their pension pot for a secure income.

    Analysts say providers might opt to cut annuity rates in the coming weeks, but with annual incomes currently at £7,317 from a £100,000 pension pot, the level is far above the £4,940 seen in 2021.

  11. 'Each rise has been like another knife in the back'published at 14:42 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Nicola Valentine in a garden

    "A sigh of relief" for Nicola Valentine after she heard rates where being held - but the tax accountant from Cambridgeshire is still hugely anxious because her mortgage is due to go up £300 per month.

    She says that mortgage advisers are telling her the best thing to do is fix, but adds that her gut feeling is that rates will come down in the next few years and "obviously it's risky".

    She has cancelled subscriptions, scrapped a holiday plan and stopped buying new clothes, but still does not know how she will find the extra money.

    Meanwhile 61-year-old Richard from Cambridge says he is really struggling because of previous rises - monthly interest payments on his tracker mortgage have increased from £260 to £807 per month.

    He calls today's decision a "small comfort", adding: "Each rise has been like another knife in the back."

    Read more here

    Richard looking out of a window
  12. Peak or pause? What next for your financespublished at 14:27 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    One thing that remains unclear today is whether this is the peak of interest rates, or just a pause ahead of another rise.

    That's quite significant, because consumers - just like businesses - crave some certainty.

    There is evidence, as you can see in our earlier post, that some potential property buyers have delayed decisions on whether to move home.

    That has a knock-on effect on the wider economy. For example, sofa-specialist DFS today said it had been hit by low customer demand. If you're not moving, you're less likely to buy a settee.

    And remember, the cost of living is still rising quite sharply. Food is getting more expensive. Energy bills are going down a bit in October, but are forecast to rise again in January.

    All of which suggests things aren't about to take off for our finances or for the UK economy as a whole.

  13. Why is the cost of living rising?published at 14:14 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Inflation is the increase in the price of something over time. If a bottle of milk costs £1 but £1.05 a year later, then annual milk inflation is 5%.

    The soaring cost of food and energy have been key drivers of inflation.

    Oil and gas were in greater demand as life got back to normal after Covid.

    Meanwhile, when Russia invaded Ukraine, many countries introduced sanctions against Russia - a major oil and gas producer, which sent wholesale energy prices higher.

    The war has also reduced the amount of grain available, pushing up global food prices as well as other production costs, such as fertilizer.

    However, last month a dip in the price of some food items - such as milk, cheese and vegetables - helped drive a surprise fall in inflation in August. This is likely to have been one factor in the Bank's decision not to raise rates this time around.

    Graph showing UK inflation over time, and at 6.7% in AugustImage source, .
  14. Why today’s decision weakened the poundpublished at 14:05 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Douglas Fraser
    Scotland business & economy editor

    One effect of interest rate changes -or of today’s lack of change - can be on exchange rates for the pound sterling.

    International capital goes to where it expects the best returns, and it flows freely - so if Britain does not put up interest rates while others do, and if there's anticipation that the Bank of England could lower rates ahead of others, the value of sterling declines.

    Ahead of today’s decision, sterling dropped from a mid-July peak of US$1.31 to around $1.23.

    Immediately after today’s decision, the pound dropped further - down three quarters of a cent to $1.2231.

    For travellers exchanging pounds, that makes it more expensive to buy dollars. The exchange rate with the euro has been more volatile in recent months. Today’s decision saw the pound drop from 1.1573 euros to 1.1513.

    The wider effect of that is to push up import prices for, among other things, oil, which is priced in US dollars. So if the Bank of England lets the pound slide, that adds to inflationary pressures in Britain.

    That fall might have been steeper if the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, had not held interest rates in its decision, announced yesterday, also to hold its base rate.

  15. 'Being a small landlord is just not feasible'published at 13:58 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Raphael Sheridan
    BBC economics producer

    Gerald, a landlord

    Gerald owns a flat in Camberwell, not far from Brixton in London, where he’s lived nearly his whole adult life.

    He’s a landlord and has seen the monthly payments on his variable mortgage for his second, rented property, go up from £550 to £2,100.

    He says that higher interest rates meant he had to pass on extra costs to his tenant, who then moved out.

    He wants to see the properly rented out to a local person, but says few people in the area could afford the rent at £1,600-£1,700 per month.

    He has now looked at listing the house on Airbnb for short-term lets as “it’s the only way we can cover the cost of owning the property".

    “I’d rather give it to a Londoner who might need a property," he says. "But if it’s financially not feasible, you have no choice.”

    He says there's "no benefit" being a landlord on a small scale, as an individual with a second property. "It’s just not feasible,” he adds.

  16. Now is the time to act, says savings adviserpublished at 13:47 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Savers have benefitted from rising rates, with some of the returns available better than anything seen for about 15 years.

    But if this is the end of the series of rate rises then these offers might not last for long.

    Anna Bowes, from the independent Savings Champion website, says shopping around for a good deal has just got more urgent.

    "I would not be surprised to see competition waning, and that might start products being pulled," she tells me.

    So, she says, it's a good time for savers to make a decision about where to put their money.

  17. What's been happening?published at 13:34 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    If you're just joining us or need a recap, the Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold for the first time in nearly two years.

    • They will remain at 5.25% - bringing an end to 14 consecutive rises since late 2021 designed to curb inflation
    • The decision refers to the "base rate" set by the Bank of England, the UK's central bank which is independent of the government
    • This rate influences how much lenders will charge borrowers who take out a mortgage, a loan or a credit card
    • The decision follows an unexpected fall in inflation - the rate at which prices are rising - in figures released yesterday
    • Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said he thinks inflation will continue to fall but warned there is "no room for complacency"
    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the UK was starting to see the tide turn against high inflation and the government was on track to halve inflation this year
    • Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the UK is worse off because of 13 years of economic chaos and instability under the Conservatives

    Stay with us for more updates and analysis.

  18. 'I am not going to jump into anything'published at 13:18 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Huw Thomas
    Correspondent, BBC Wales

    Michael Cassemis

    While many might welcome the pause, for now, in interest rates rising, higher rates are already impacting people's finances.

    First-time buyer Michael Cassemis, from Cardiff, has delayed committing to a house purchase because of the uncertainty about interest rates.

    “I’m not going to jump into anything at the moment,” the 26-year-old says. “I’ve been looking, but I’m just too worried to go through with it just in case anything happens.”

    Michael is five years younger than the average age of a first-time buyer in Wales, and has managed to save enough for a deposit. But he is concerned that high interest rates are delaying the ambition of owning his own home.

    “It is an awful lot of money, especially when you don’t have that help from others - handouts and stuff," he says.

  19. What do businesses make of the decision to hold rates?published at 13:04 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Lora Jones
    Business reporter, BBC News

    Business groups and industry bodies have been weighing in on today's decision by the Bank of England to hold interest rates at 5.25%.

    The Institute of Directors (IoD), which represents business leaders, said to raise rates further "would have risked administering an overdose before the existing medicine has had enough time to full take effect", with some firms struggling with rising costs, rents and wage bills.

    The Federation of Small Businesses said that small firms wanted to see the interest rate "plateau" become permanent.

    Its national chair Martin McTague said: “It’s been a long slog to get to this point, and many small firms have suffered financially along the way, with margins and cash reserves battered by both the phenomenon the Bank tried to control, inflation, and the ‘cure’ it applied in the form of fourteen consecutive rises in the base rate."

    Meanwhile, BusinessLDN, a group which lobbies for business in London, said it was worried previous rate rises would "choke off growth altogether" and suggested that the government could do more to boost growth and should use its Autumn Statement to set out its plans.

  20. Could the UK be flirting with recession?published at 12:59 British Summer Time 21 September 2023

    Dharshini David
    Chief economics correspondent

    Interest rates battle inflation by squeezing spending and inflation and so limiting the amount businesses can push up prices.

    The problem is getting the balance right - go too far and you push the economy into reverse.

    Hanging over the decision not to change rates may be a fear that the interest rate panel has already gone too far.

    On the back of the latest evidence, the Bank’s economists have slashed their prediction for growth over the summer, now expecting the economy to grow by 0.1% - with a risk that weaker position continues.

    It’s an acknowledgement, as some independent economists have already been warning, that the UK might be at risk of flirting with recession - just as many households and businesses are already feeling under pressure.