Summary

  • The UK fell into recession in the second half of 2023, new figures show - we're answering your questions live

  • GDP shrank by 0.3% in the last quarter of the year, following a fall of 0.1% in the previous three-month period

  • Despite GDP falling in successive quarters, it did grow by 0.1% across the whole of 2023, the data shows

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is an important tool for judging how well an economy's doing

  • One of PM Rishi Sunak's five pledges for last year was to "grow the economy"

  • But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells the BBC that when the commitment was made, Sunak was "very clear, tackling inflation had to come first"

  • Labour say Sunak "can no longer credibly claim his plan is working" and, with the Lib Dems, dubbed this "Rishi Sunak's recession"

  1. That's it from uspublished at 15:36 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Sam Hancock
    Live reporter

    It's been a busy day, with lots of figures to digest, announcements to follow and reaction to keep up with - so thanks for sticking with us. Here's a quick recap of the key points:

    • New figures - published this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - revealed that the UK fell into recession in the latter part of 2023, following successive drops in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last two quarters
    • Despite officially being in a recession, GDP did grow by 0.1% across the whole of 2023
    • It's thought the dip might not last long because the UK's jobs market remains strong and wage growth is outpacing inflation
    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said today's data was "challenging" but insisted there was "light at the end of the tunnel". Labour and other opposition parties dubbed it "Rishi's recession", with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves saying the country is "trapped in a spiral of economic decline"
    • Our cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey took your questions about what all this means, which you can catch up on in our earlier posts
    • And a final reminder that the UK isn't alone in experiencing economic difficulty right now - just look at this graphic made by our visual journalism colleagues:
    Graph showing world economiesImage source, .

    Today's coverage was brought to you by Lora Jones, Gem O'Reilly, Alex Smith, Jake Lapham, Craig Hutchison, Gabriela Pomeroy and Emily Atkinson. It was edited by James Harness and me.

  2. Watch: 'People are frightened to go out and spend'published at 15:24 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Residents of Harlow, in Essex, have been telling the BBC how they're doing financially after two days of weighty economic announcements - yesterday, unchanged inflation and today, a shrinking economy (at the end of 2023).

    Some described not being able to afford meat at the supermarket, others said it's a struggle to get anything "for your money" nowadays.

    Here's what people walking around the town centre had to say:

    Media caption,

    Watch: We asked people In Harlow how they have been affected

  3. BBC Verify

    Were Labour right about a steady decline in GDP per head?published at 15:18 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones

    Following the release of this morning’s figures, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones claimed there had been a steady decline in GDP per person over the past year - representing the “longest unbroken record in family financial decline since the 1950s when records began”.

    GDP per person is often seen as a good indicator of living standards since it tells you whether a country’s population is growing richer.

    Jones is right that GDP per person has been falling for more than a year and a half, to be precise it’s been decreasing over the past 21 months.

    This is the longest period of consistent decline on record, though not the most substantial one, and translates to a total cut of £143 per person since March 2022 (from £8,393 to £8,250). This is worked out by taking total GDP and dividing it by the total UK population.

    The second longest period of such decline was during the financial crisis when GDP per person fell for six consecutive quarters, by a total of £582.

  4. Industry leaders warn of slow growth, but optimism remainspublished at 15:04 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Our colleagues over on Radio 4 have been speaking to a number of industry leaders who've given their verdict on today's figures and the UK economy in general.

    Lord Stuart Rose, the chairman of supermarket chain Asda, told the Today programme that in order to stimulate growth, there needs to be investment in infrastructure while cutting inefficiency.

    "These things won't be popular," he warned, but "we've got a low growth economy or a no growth economy."

    Julian Metcalfe, the co-founder of sandwich chain Pret A Manger, advised anyone listening to Today who runs a business to "do everything you can to look after your customers and staff" in hard times.

    And on the World at One programme, Mark Neale, founder of retail store Mountain Warehouse said he'd enjoyed “a record year". His company is opening a number of shops across the country, he said, adding he hoped we are "well past the worst with inflation".

    A tables and chairsImage source, Getty Images
  5. A tough day for businesses and billpayers - industry groupspublished at 14:47 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    We've heard from various industry groups and think-tanks as the day's gone on - all have been reacting to the news that the UK entered a recession at the end of last year.

    Here's a quick look at what they've said:

    • The Federation of Small Businesses says the news "confirms what many small firms have been saying for some time now - it's very tough out there"
    • The Trades Union Congress suggests the UK is in "dire straits" and that household budgets are at "breaking point"
    • But the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, an anti-poverty charity, says that the fact the UK entered a technical recession will not be front of mind for those already struggling with bills and food prices
    • The Institute of Directors describes today's figures - which showed that GDP shrank by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2023 - as a "psychological blow" for bosses, but says they'll now be shifting their attention to the future
  6. BBC Verify

    The challenge of growing the economy and reducing inflationpublished at 14:36 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Rishi SunakImage source, Getty Images

    The government has never publicly said what measure should be used to assess if it had met PM Rishi Sunak's pledge to “grow the economy”, despite repeated requests.

    In some private briefings to journalists, sources said it would be if the economy was bigger in the three-month period of October to December 2023 than in the previous quarter (July to September).

    That was not achieved - this morning's figures show the economy shrank 0.3% in the last three months of the year, sending it into recession.

    Overall the economy grew by only 0.1% in the whole of 2023. As we've said today, growth in the economy is measured using GDP (Gross Domestic Product) - a measure of all the activity of companies, governments and individuals.

    The pledge to grow the economy was made more difficult by the government's promise to halve inflation.

    The Bank of England put up interest rates 14 times to stop prices rising so quickly. But this also reduced spending and slowed economic growth.

    • Read more about Sunak's five priorities here
  7. Lib Dems and SNP highlight trouble for familiespublished at 14:24 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Thank you to our readers for sending in those questions, which our cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey answered in the last few posts (scroll down to see them).

    Now we've got some more political reaction to bring you following today's GDP figures.

    Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey accuses Rishi Sunak of "savaging the British economy", "decimating growth" and leaving "families to cope with spiralling prices". He adds:

    Quote Message

    It's hardworking Brits forced to pick up the tab for this mess, through high food prices, tax hikes and skyrocketing mortgage bills."

    Meanwhile, the SNP's economy spokesperson Drew Hendry says the state of the economy has "hurt families and communities" - and calls for Scottish independence from the UK.

  8. Your Questions Answered

    How much did strike action contribute to the recession?published at 14:06 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    A board at a train station showing there are stikresImage source, Getty Images
    Image caption,

    Rail strikes, among others, have continued into 2024 (file photo from January)

    Today's final question comes from Chris Jeffrey, who wants to know whether this recession would have been avoided if there had been no strikes.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS), which compiles the figures on economic growth, was clear today that there had been an impact from strike action.

    That was one of many diverse factors, which also included spending in the shops before Christmas and lower school attendances.

    It would take a brave statistician to try to strip out the effect of strikes and calculate how the economy performed otherwise.

    I'm neither a statistician, nor very brave.

  9. Your Questions Answered

    Why does economic growth matter?published at 14:01 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Tom Morgan asked this question.

    It must have been the title of many economics students' essays - and an important one at that.

    We all want to see our living standards improve, our wages rise, and our job prospects get better. That is more likely when the economy is growing.

    But, crucially, this is measured across the economy as a whole. Individuals have different experiences and circumstances, and strong economic growth does not mean everyone will be better off.

    Growth, and how to pursue it, has been central to political debate in recent history, not least among prime ministers past and present - so it breaks out far beyond those economics lessons.

  10. Your Questions Answered

    Is the UK in stagflation?published at 13:46 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Christie Thomson wants to know if the UK economy is in what's known as stagflation.

    Right ho. Sometimes economic terminology is bizarre and unclear.

    Basically stagflation is a period of a slowing economy, high inflation (the rate of rising prices) and high unemployment.

    In short: not a good position to be in.

    On this, I defer to my colleague - the BBC's economics editor Faisal Islam - who says the best way to define the overall experience of the past six months, indeed the past two years, is "zero growth" or "stagnation".

    You can read more of his analysis, peppered with some fascinating history, here.

  11. Your Questions Answered

    Is this recession worse than others we've had?published at 13:34 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Back to your questions. Bradley asks - will this recession have a potentially worse effect than in 2008?

    I'm dodging the question somewhat by saying that time will tell on that one.

    Clearly, every recession - or even just very low growth for a period of time - will have consequences for us as a nation and individually.

    What happened in 2008 - the deepest recession for 80 years - had implications for people for many years subsequently. Living standards for many failed to improve for years.

    However, various economic indicators are suggesting that this time around may well be a shallow recession and not last for too long.

    Clearly, it will still affect our lives and, indeed, politics in this country.

  12. Six things to know this lunchtimepublished at 13:25 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Sam Hancock
    Live reporter

    If you're just joining us, grab a sandwich (and perhaps a calculator - our inflation one is here) and catch up on what we've learnt so far today:

    • The UK fell into recession at the end of last year, after Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell successively in the final two quarters of 2023
    • It was the mildest start to a recession since the 1970s, though, with the last five in the UK seeing the economy shrink by more than 1% - in 2023 it shrunk by 0.5%
    • The figures also showed that all major sectors had contracted in the final three months of 2023, and GDP per person fell by 0.6%, but the dip isn't expected to last long - plus there's the news that GDP on the whole grew last year (by 0.1%) in comparison with 2022
    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt told the BBC earlier that, despite the news, the economy is resilient - while opposition parties have dubbed this "Rishi's recession" after the prime minister pledged to grow the economy
    • At a hastily-called news conference, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said Sunak had overseen the country becoming "trapped in a spiral of economic decline"
    • It's worth remembering that the UK isn't alone - the EU narrowly avoided recession in the second half of 2023 and Japan slipped into one just last night

    Our cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey will continue to answer questions from you, our readers, now. Stay tuned for those.

  13. GDP is down - and GDP per person is down even morepublished at 13:07 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    While we wait for the next question to be answered, let's take a look at some more of today's data.

    The headline figure concerns Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - which, in short, is a measure of total economic output.

    GDP fell in the UK in the final two quarters of 2023, by 0.1% and 0.3%, meaning the economy fell into recession.

    But when you consider GDP per person, the news is worse. That's because the UK's population is growing - so the total GDP is spread across more people.

    In the final quarter of 2023, GDP per person fell by 0.6%, and by almost 0.4% in the quarter before that. In fact, GDP per person hasn't grown since the first quarter of 2022.

    GDP per capita chart since 2021
  14. Your Questions Answered

    What does this mean for house prices?published at 12:53 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Peter Hendry wonders how today's GDP figures will affect the UK housing market.

    Well, this is a question that can be asked at any point in time, and it is probably worth drawing back the lens a little.

    Normally, you might expect interest rates to be cut in a recession (there's more on why that isn't happening here). That, in turn, would bring down mortgage rates and give the housing market a bit of a lift.

    In fact, there have been mortgage rate cuts since the start of the year, although they have now stalled.

    But equally, a stagnant economy may make people think about the security of their jobs - and so potentially delay big financial decisions like buying a home.

    Houses with for sale signs outside themImage source, Getty Images
  15. Want more questions? Press play abovepublished at 12:39 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Experts, including our very own cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey, are answering more of your questions now in our live stream.

    You can tune in by hitting the Play button at the top of this page.

    Kevin will be back here soon to answer more questions in text. Don't go anywhere!

  16. Your Questions Answered

    Are any other countries doing any better?published at 12:26 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Jonathan, in East Yorkshire, asks whether there are currently any countries with positive growth?

    Jonathan also points out, quite correctly, that Japan has fallen into recession and the EU only narrowly avoided it.

    Comparisons with other countries can be helpful although, obviously, you are never comparing apples with apples.

    Often in these circumstances, we look across the pond. In the US, the economy grew by a healthy 3.3% in the final three months of 2023.

    That sits alongside a fairly strong jobs market and a falling inflation rate (albeit from a high level). My colleague Erin Delmore has been delving into some of the reasons behind this.

  17. Your Questions Answered

    Will the Bank of England go for growth?published at 12:10 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Bank of England buildingImage source, Reuters

    Does the Bank of England have any targets for growth? Mike Bramham asks.

    The Bank’s remit is to use monetary policy (primarily interest rates) to keep inflation - the rate of rising prices - at 2%.

    That is the focus, but policymakers at the Bank will be acutely aware that high interest rates have an impact on growth. For example, businesses are less likely to borrow to buy new machinery when interest rates are high.

    So, it's a balancing act - and one which not everyone thinks the Bank has got correct.

    It says it supports governments in aims of economic growth and jobs but, ultimately, that inflation target is central for the central Bank.

  18. Your Questions Answered

    Will interest rates come down anytime soon?published at 12:04 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Tom, in Barrow-in-Furness, wants to get a loan to replace his car - and wants to know if interest rates will fall soon.

    There are millions of people who would like to know the answer to that one, Tom! Of course, we don’t know for sure.

    One thing is certain - none of today's news will be a surprise to the Bank of England, which sets interest rates. It knows that prices have been rising and the UK economy relatively stagnant.

    The Bank’s governor repeated yesterday that policymakers are discussing how long interest rates have to stay at their current level of 5.25%, before they can start cutting.

    Analysts think June is the most likely date for a drop, so you might have to keep the old motor going for a bit longer yet.

  19. It's time to answer your questions - stay tunedpublished at 12:02 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    In the next few posts, the BBC's cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey will answer some of the questions you, our readers, have been sending in.

    Remember - if you have a question about the UK falling into recession and what it means for you, you can get in touch too:

    In some cases a selection of your comments and questions will be published, displaying your name and location as you provide it unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published.

  20. Postpublished at 11:57 Greenwich Mean Time 15 February

    Lora Jones
    Business reporter

    Inflation and interest rates chart

    Let's briefly look at what today's GDP figures mean for interest rates moving forward.

    In a bid to slow the rate at which prices are rising, the Bank of England previously increased interest rates - its base rate (the reference point for how much banks and building societies pay savers and charge borrowers in interest) currently stands at 5.25%, the highest level in 16 years.

    The theory behind this is that by making borrowing more expensive, people will have less money to spend and are encouraged to save more. In turn, this is meant to reduce demand and slow the pace of price rises - but it's a balancing act.

    By increasing borrowing costs, there is a risk of harming the economy as businesses could stop investing and jobs could be cut.

    There have been concerns about the UK's weak economic growth for a while - that doesn't mean interest rates will be cut anytime soon, though. The Bank has said it needs "firm evidence" that inflation is under control before doing so.

    So does this morning's news change much for the BoE? In short, experts say probably not.

    Speaking in front of the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee yesterday, BoE governor Andrew Bailey said what's more important is the fact we're now "seeing some signs of the beginning of a pick-up" in the UK economy.