Summary

  • The UK fell into recession in the second half of 2023, new figures show - we're answering your questions live

  • GDP shrank by 0.3% in the last quarter of the year, following a fall of 0.1% in the previous three-month period

  • Despite GDP falling in successive quarters, it did grow by 0.1% across the whole of 2023, the data shows

  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is an important tool for judging how well an economy's doing

  • One of PM Rishi Sunak's five pledges for last year was to "grow the economy"

  • But Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells the BBC that when the commitment was made, Sunak was "very clear, tackling inflation had to come first"

  • Labour say Sunak "can no longer credibly claim his plan is working" and, with the Lib Dems, dubbed this "Rishi Sunak's recession"

Live Reporting

Edited by Sam Hancock

  1. Analysis

    All major sectors contracting - but the dip may be short-lived

    Dharshini David
    Chief economics correspondent

    ONS statistics on GDPOffice for National Statistics

    It was a combination of higher inflation and interest rates that hit consumers' spending, pushing the UK economy further into reverse.

    But with all major sectors contracting, the economy suffered by more than expected at the end of 2023.

    That, by most economists' measures, constitutes a recession and could be enough to scupper the government's pledge to grow the economy last year.

    However, that dip may be short-lived as the jobs market remains resilient with wage growth typically outpacing inflation - or how fast prices rise, again.

    The numbers highlight a thorny issue, though - prosperity has grown at a fraction in recent years of what it did prior to the financial crisis.

  2. Two consecutive GDP falls signal recession

    We've got more detail now on this morning's GDP figures.

    Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, fell by 0.3% in the last three months of 2023, which is a sharper fall than economists were expecting.

    This gave us two consecutive falls in GDP after a decrease of 0.1% in the three months before, between July and September 2023.

    When this happens it is usually defined as a technical recession.

  3. UK entered recession at end of 2023
    Breaking

    The UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 after the economy shrank by 0.3% in the final three months of the year, official figures show.

    We'll bring you a bit more on why this happened, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shortly.

  4. Potentially crucial moment for Sunak

    Rihsi Sunak at Downing StreetPA Media

    As we've already reported this morning, growing the economy is one of the five promises that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak set out at the beginning of 2023.

    The government has since said this would be met if the economy was bigger in the three-month period of October to December 2023 than it was in the previous quarter (July-September) - but whether this happens is another issue entirely.

    Growth over 2023 was weak and forecasters have said it's unlikely that the economy will have grown by much - and it may even have shrunk.

    The figures today will give a clearer picture of what's going on, including whether Sunak has managed to deliver on this pledge or not.

  5. A graph showing GDP rising and falling from 2021 to 2023

    The economy grew in the first three months of 2023

    The UK avoided recession at the end of 2022 - after the economy performed better than expected - and then grew in the first three months of 2023 (otherwise known as Q1).

    But the economy showed zero growth between April and June (Q2), and shrank by 0.1% between July and September 2023 (Q3). That's why there's so much anticipation about what the figures today will show.

    If the latest figures show that GDP also fell between October to December (Q4), it could mean the UK went into recession at the end of 2023. If the economy grew in that time, then the UK avoided recession.

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made growing the UK economy one of his five key pledges.

  6. All important question - will the UK have fallen into recession?

    As is always the case with "the latest" economic figures, today's are a bit behind where we are now. So what we'll see at 07:00 GMT is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) performance for Q4 of last year, or the last three months of 2023.

    They'll show whether or not the UK’s economy grew or shrunk between October and December - and by how much.

    They’re especially significant because a recession is usually defined as when GDP falls for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row.

    Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter, between July and September. So if the fourth quarter follows suit, it means the UK was technically in recession at the end of 2023. (These figures can be revised at a later date and the verdict on recession could change.)

    The last time the UK's economy went into recession was in 2020, at the height of the Covid pandemic.

    An empty high streetGetty Images

  7. Economy health check incoming

    Sam Hancock
    Live reporter

    Good morning. We're less than an hour away from finding out the most recent, quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the UK economy - they'll tell us how well things are going.

    GDP, which broadly covers economic growth, measures the value of goods and services that the UK produces. It's measured by looking at output, expenditure and income.

    Basically, when the number rises it means the economy's doing well - and when it falls it’s doing badly. GDP matters because it influences how businesses act, how the government chooses to set its tax and spending policies, and what the Bank of England does with its interest rates.

    All of these things have an impact on your pocket, which is why we're going to steer you through the announcement at 07:00 GMT and bring you plenty of live updates and analysis beyond then. Grab a cuppa, or a coffee, and stay with us.