We've just had new comments from Keir Starmer's spokesman, who says there are both "moral" and economic reasons to change the welfare system.

As a reminder, the government is expected to announce changes to benefits tomorrow.

Speaking to reporters, Starmer's spokesman says: "The prime minister has been clear there is both a moral and an economic case for fixing our broken social security system that’s holding our people back, and our country back."

The spokesman adds: "Three million people are out of work for health reasons, and one in eight young people not currently in work, education or training.

"So we’ve got a duty to fix the system, to ensure that that safety net is always there for the most vulnerable and severely disabled, but also supports back into work, rather than leaving people written off.”

Asked if the reforms were being carried out because of the UK’s fiscal backdrop, the spokesman replied: "No, I think when you look at the fact that we have the highest level of working-age inactivity due to ill health in western Europe, we’re the only major economy whose employment rate hasn’t recovered since the pandemic, there is a duty to fix the broken system that is letting millions of people in this country down."

What is behind the trends in incapacity benefit?published at 12:28 Greenwich Mean Time

12:28 GMT

By Ben Chu

The number of new people claiming incapacity benefit fell in the five years from 2009-10 but has been rising in most years since 2014-15.

Analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) , externalsuggests the net falls after 2010 were due to a change in the system, which meant a larger number of reassessments of claimants who had been on benefits for some time.

The OBR says that the reason for the net rises in claimants since 2015 is likely due to higher numbers making new claims.

It cites a combination of factors as likely driving this, including further changes in the system and worsening health among the population.

There is no consensus among other experts though: some point to the impact of the pandemic, and the rise in mental ill health, especially among younger people.

Others place the emphasis on financial incentives in the welfare system - where people can get higher payments for being on sickness benefits than from being unemployed or in low-paid, part-time work.

Image source, UK Parliament

The opposition to any possible welfare cuts is not only from within the Labour Party.

The SNP's Work and Pensions spokesperson at Westminster Kirsty Blackman tells the Good Morning Scotland programme the UK government should be looking elsewhere for the money.

She says: "Labour have chosen to impose these fiscal rules. They've chosen to turbo-charge Tory austerity.

"They're aiming that squarely at disabled people right now."

You can read more about the government's fiscal rules and "headroom" in our earlier post from Henry Zeffman.

A business owner in Northampton has been speaking to our colleagues on BBC 5 Live.

He says he has suffered with mental health issues and "things should be in place for people to support that. But where is the money coming from to support that?"

He adds: "Sometimes it's easy to say it's a mental health issue.

"I think I've suffered with mental health and still do even today. And I think sometimes you have to try and do a lot of these things for yourself…

"Yes, we all get bored of jobs. We all get fed up with them. But at some point, you have to have some money. At some point, you have to get some oomph back into your life and come on let's go and do this."

Victoria Park-Froud
Journalist, BBC News

We've been getting your reaction to reforms to the welfare system, which the government is expected to announce tomorrow.

Justine Stamp, 42, from Chichester, was born with a genetic condition. She works part-time as a teacher.

"Part of the reason for being able to work part-time is that my PIP covers a mobility car, goes towards a carer, and allows me to pay for some treatment that I can’t get on the NHS," she says.

She says that if the government "fixed the NHS", she would be able to work more.

"As it stands, the time and fight it takes to get diagnoses and consistent, adequate treatment means I can’t commit to more working hours as my health is not stable enough," Justine adds.

"I currently work 14 hours a week during term time. If my PIP is to be taken away, I can’t work."

Would you be affected by changes to the welfare system? Your Voice Your BBC News wants to hear from you.

You can also get in touch in the following ways:

• Email: haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk
• WhatsApp: +44 7756 165803
• Tweet: @BBC_HaveYourSay

We'll have the first of your comments in our next post.

As we've been reporting, ministers are looking at tightening criteria to qualify for Personal Independence Payments (PIP), one of the key disability benefits.

PIP is intended to help with the extra living costs for people who have disabilities and long-term health conditions, such as the purchase of a wheelchair or having to take more taxis to get around. More than 3.6 million people currently claim PIP.

It was introduced in 2013 to replace Disability Living Allowance for people of working age, with the intention it would lead to savings of £1.4bn a year relative to the previous system by reducing the number of people eligible.

PIP was initially projected to reduce the number of claimants by 606,000 (28%) in total, yet the reform ended up saving only £100m a year by 2015.

How much people are given depends on how difficult they find everyday tasks and getting around. The maximum weekly payment is £184.30.

PIP is the second-largest element of the working-age welfare bill, with spending on this projected to almost double to £34bn by 2029-30.

It had been initially reported that the government may not increase PIP payments in line with inflation for a year - but that idea could be withdrawn after Labour MPs voiced opposition.

Earlier we brought you comments from Labour MP Diane Abbott, who called for a 2% wealth tax on people with assets over £10 million, claiming it could raise £24 billion a year.

This idea has been circulating among the left wing of the Labour Party, and elsewhere, for a while now.

In October, a dozen Labour MPs including Abbott joined a cross-party effort - which also involved the Greens, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP, Alliance and one Liberal Democrat MP - to ask the chancellor to introduce the measure in her first Budget.

Although Abbott did not name a source for her claim in the Radio 4 interview, Tax Justice UK and other campaign groups have been making the case for it in recent years.

It says the figures are based on work by the Wealth Tax Commission, a body made up of academics, policymakers and tax practitioners, which produced a report on the issue in December 2020.

Tax Justice UK said in March that if a wealth tax threshold was set at £10 million, 20,000 people would be impacted.

But critics of wealth taxes claim they have not been beneficial in countries that have tried them, and argue people would leave the UK as a result - meaning the overall tax take could fall.

In 2023, Rachel Reeves, then shadow chancellor, ruled out introducing a wealth tax if elected, and said: "I don't see the way to prosperity as being through taxation."

Lack of 'headroom' pushes Labour into difficult decisionspublished at 10:14 Greenwich Mean Time

10:14 GMT

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

This is one of the most significant moments of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership so far.

The reason reform of the benefits system is being announced now is because the cuts form part of the Spring Statement on 26 March.

Initially this was expected to be a pared-back parliamentary moment with Rachel Reeves only required to formally acknowledge new economic forecasts produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Over recent weeks, however, it has become clear that the OBR has told Rachel Reeves that the £9.9 billion "headroom" she had at the time of her October Budget has since been wiped out by the rising cost of government borrowing – requiring savings. This was the buffer Reeves had against meeting her own borrowing rules.

There are some Labour MPs, including ministers, who believe that instead of responding by pursuing severe spending cuts, Reeves and Starmer should consider changing those rules so that the government can borrow more money, or increase tax.

Reeves’ allies, though, argue that this would spook the financial markets and result in the cost of borrowing going up even further, exacerbating the issues she is now trying to solve.

On tax, the chancellor is constrained by commitments Labour made during the general election not to increase income tax or VAT.

There is significant unease among Labour MPs about the welfare cuts, spreading far beyond Starmer’s usual internal opponents. It is unclear as yet, though, whether that will harden into public opposition.

Image source, Getty Images

Government minister Emma Reynolds says it is the "moral duty" of the Labour Party - "the party of work" - to help people back into work where possible.

"We believe that the system as we have it is failing young people, and failing many of those people you are talking about, because it is very binary - either the system tells you you can work and you claim job seekers' allowance, or it tells you that you can’t work," she tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Responding to questions on a "wealth tax" - see our earlier post - Reynolds says the October Budget already raised taxes on the wealthiest, so "for the time being we’re not going to come forward with a wealth tax".

On what might be announced tomorrow, Reynolds won't comment, and asks her critical colleagues to be "patient" until the details are set out by the Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall.

But she insists "the severely disabled and the most vulnerable will always get support" and that there will always be "a safety net".

Professor Sir Sam Everington is on the council of the Royal College of General Practitioners and has been a GP in east London since 1989 – he spoke to BBC Radio 4's Today programme this morning.

Asked about the rise in health related benefits since 2019, and the forecasts of rises to come, he says it's a "massive problem".

He warns of a process called "deconditioning", saying: "If you take an 80-year-old and put them in a hospital bed for 10 days, they lose 10% of their muscle strength, and it’s the equivalent of 10 years inactivity.

"Well we now know that you get virtually the same in the younger age group when you sign them off sick."

He says there is no doubt too many people who could be working are being signed off sick, warning the impact on mental, physical and social health can be "dreadful”.

He says there are situations in which people cannot work, but says in general there needs to be a reversal from "sick note" to "fit note" - to describe what people can do, rather than a binary decision about "sick or not sick".

“We need a cultural understanding, particularly in the medical profession, that work is absolutely part of the treatment," he says.

Faisal Islam
Economics editor

In the next 24 hours and then over the following fortnight up until the Spring Statement, the government is going to talk a lot about a broken welfare system that is failing the people who use it, the economy and taxpayers.

Taking a tough call on fixing it goes against the instincts of much of the Labour Party and has already sparked an internal backlash that could rise to ministerial level, as well as protests.

The government is making two key related judgements. The first is that the country cannot afford to sustain recent ballooning increases in the health-related benefit bill and caseload, in particular for mental illness.

At the same time, it will argue that a job is the best medicine.

Underlying this is an assumption that a health-related benefits system that was built-up to deal with industrial injuries can't apply to the post-pandemic service economy workforce.

The net result is likely to be significant changes to Personal Independence Payments, aiming to reduce eligibility for the highest levels of payments, especially among those of working age with mental illness.

In addition, there will be a levelling of the generosity of the health component of Universal Credit. This will save billions of pounds, and about a billion of that will be reinvested in trying to help get those capable of part-time work some help for a partial return.

• Read more from Faisal here

Labour MP Diane Abbott says she wants to see a wealth tax introduced to pay for the rising costs of welfare.

Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme how she would meet the bill, Abbott claims a 2% “wealth tax” on people with assets over £10 million would raise £24 billion a year.

Challenged over whether such a move could have negative economic effects - for example, by encouraging wealthy people to leave the UK - she says it “shouldn’t have some massive effect”.

Abbott also criticised the idea that people choose to live on benefits as a lifestyle choice.

“Being on welfare is very depressing, it’s very humiliating, it sort of brings you down...I have no sympathy with the idea that the way to get people out of welfare is to cut the money they have to live on, I have no sympathy with the idea that it’s a lifestyle choice,” she says.

Aoife Walsh
Live reporter

Welcome to our coverage of Westminster, as the government prepares to announce changes to the welfare system tomorrow.

Ministers are looking at tightening the eligibility criteria for a key disability benefit - the Personal Independence Payment (PIP) - which is claimed by more than 3.6 million people.

However, the BBC understands there will not be an inflation freeze on the payments - something that had been suggested.

There is unease among Labour MPs about the welfare changes, spreading far beyond Prime Minister Keir Starmer's usual internal opponents. This morning, Diane Abbott has voiced her concerns - we'll have more on that in our next post.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is due to answer regular departmental questions in the House of Commons from 14:30 GMT.

We'll bring you the latest updates, reaction and analysis here, so stay with us.