Could this be a historic by-election?published at 21:50 BST 23 October
Gareth Lewis
BBC Wales political editor
Image source, Getty ImagesCaerphilly has traditionally been a Labour stronghold
This is a Labour stronghold - the party has won every election here, in Westminster and the Senedd, for more than 100 years.
But right from the beginning of this by-election campaign sources within Labour have been realistic about their chances.
First Minister Eluned Morgan told the recent Labour conference that the party faces a "hell of a fight" to hold on to power in next year’s Senedd election.
The party has been in power for 26 years in Cardiff Bay and there are question marks over its record on the NHS and education - spending priorities on things like the 20mph law and an expanded Senedd.
Last year the Welsh party almost tore itself apart with the row over donations to former first minister Vaughan Gething’s leadership campaign and his eventual resignation.
Despite only being back in power for 15 months at Westminster, polls also suggest that the UK Labour government and Sir Keir Starmer are unpopular.
Morgan did not use the phrase “hell of a fight” lightly, and she will also be aware that after 26 years some voters might simply want a change.
