Image source, Getty Images

We've got some explanation for the surprise holding of inflation at 3.8% from the ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner.

He says there was a variety of price movements which contributed to the continuing price rises, with petrol prices and airfares driving costs up, whereas cultural purchases - such as live events - offset that with lower prices.

He also says that food and non-alcoholic prices fell for the first time since May last year.

Image source, Getty Images

It looks like transport is one of the main driving forces behind inflation staying at 3.8%.

The Office for National Statistics says petrol prices and airfares didn't fall as much this September as they did last year.

But lower prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks helped offset that.

Prices are rising a little more slowly than expected and at the same rate as in July and August - which was also 3.8%.

Economists and the Bank of England had been predicting a 4% rise in the year to September.

Inflation in the UK holds steady at 3.8% in the year to September, the Office for National Statistics says.

We'll bring you more analysis and reaction on this shortly.

Consumers are hesitant to spendpublished at 06:49 BST 22 October

06:49 BST 22 October

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

Image source, Getty Images

Food, energy, water, travel… the bills just seem to keep mounting.

Such increases mean inflation may have hit 4% last month (we'll find out if that's the case in just a few minutes).

Many reflect global commodity price moves – but domestic factors play a part too.

Economists, including those at the Bank of England, have highlighted that the impact of government policies such as higher taxes and minimum wages have pushed up costs for some businesses and so prices in consumer facing sectors such as retail and hospitality.

And these figures could underscore that the Bank may not be in a hurry to cut rates again, as it focuses on getting inflation back down.

But there may be hope ahead: analysts think the bulk of the rise in costs is filtering through, the inflation rate should drop back, as prices rise at a slower rate as we head into 2026.

And that matters – not just for households but the economy, too.

Wages are now generally rising faster than prices (and these inflation figures should mean a more generous increase in benefits next year, too).

But scarred by the cost of living rises of the last few years, and nervous of what may yet lie ahead, consumers are hesitant to spend, holding back growth.

Tommy Lumby
BBC business data journalist

The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4% at its September meeting - the lowest level for more than two years.

The decision had been widely expected given that prices are still rising at a rate well above the Bank's target of 2%.

The Bank's governor Andrew Bailey said the UK was "not out of the woods yet" when it came to inflation, so any future rate cuts would “need to be made gradually and carefully".

The next interest rate setting decision is on 6 November.

At one point a further interest rate cut had been expected, but economists are now less sure this will happen.

Announcements in the Budget on 26 November could also influence the Bank's future decisions.

Tommy Lumby
BBC business data journalist

Prices across the UK economy rose at an estimated 3.8% in the year to August 2025, the same as in the 12 months to July.

The July and August figure is the highest recorded since January 2024, when the rate was 4%.

That was still well below the highs seen in late-2022, as the chart below shows.

The cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks continued to grow, with beef, butter, chocolate and coffee seeing particularly sharp increases.

Image source, Getty Images

Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services are rising.

If inflation is low, prices are only rising slowly. If inflation is high, you might notice the price of things you buy going up when you shop.

If the rate of inflation falls, that doesn’t mean prices are falling - it means prices are increasing at a slower rate.

Here’s an example:

• If a bottle of milk cost £1 in September 2024
• But costs £1.05 in September 2025...
• Then annual inflation for milk is 5%

If annual inflation was 2%, then the bottle of milk would cost £1.02 - still more than a year ago.

Milk is just one thing bought by shoppers across the UK. The Office for National Statistics tracks the prices of hundreds of items, from regular supermarket goods and fuel to travel costs and home furnishings.

It uses that “basket of goods” to update the main rate of inflation, the Consumer Prices Index, each month.

Lucy Hooker
Business reporter

Image source, EPA-EFE

Today we’ll get the latest data on UK inflation - the rate is expected to rise slightly, from 3.8% in the year to August, to 4% in the year to September.

If this happens, it would mean prices are rising at twice the pace that the Bank of England is aiming for - that is its 2% target.

It would also be the highest inflation rate since January 2024.

September's inflation data is especially significant, as it is normally used to calculate how much a range of benefits go up by in April. The biggest of these is universal credit.

The Office for National Statistics will publish the latest data at 07:00 BST, and we’ll bring you updates and analysis from our correspondents as soon as we have it.