Could this escalate?published at 11:00 British Summer Time 14 August
Frank Gardner
Security correspondent
That depends on how Russia responds.
When things went badly for Moscow earlier on in this war, or whenever the West publicly contemplated supplying Ukraine with more powerful weapons, then President Putin liked to remind everyone that he controlled the world’s biggest arsenal of nuclear weapons.
Russian military doctrine sets out a number of scenarios that would call for that arsenal to be deployed - the most relevant one here is "if the Motherland is threatened".
Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia does constitute the first time a foreign army has invaded that country since 1941 but this is not a march on Moscow; Ukraine has made it clear it that this is only a temporary measure.
It is a strategic ploy by President Zelensky to both bring the war home to Russians and better position his country for when the time comes to negotiate a peace deal in earnest.
Putin has vowed "a fitting response" but he knows what Nato’s red lines are and for now, he is likely to focus on punishing Ukraine and possibly stepping up cyber attacks on its Western allies.