Summary

  • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt delayed taking "properly tough decisions" in his Autumn Statement yesterday, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says

  • Putting off spending cuts until after 2025 could mean "the pain to come will be even greater", the think tank's director warns

  • Hunt has been defending his plans to save billions amid criticism they will pile further pressure on "squeezed middle" earners

  • The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted a huge drop in living standards, with household incomes set to fall by 7% over the next 18 months

  • The chancellor says it simply wasn't possible to raise £25bn by only taxing the wealthiest

  • On Thursday, he announced £55bn in tax rises and a squeeze in public spending that he said would tackle spiralling inflation

  • But Labour said he had picked the nation's pockets with "stealth taxes" and accused the Tories of crashing the economy and making working people pay

  1. Goodbye for nowpublished at 16:17 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt talks to a television crew outside the BBC headquarters in LondonImage source, Reuters

    For more coverage of the Autumn Statement and full reaction to Jeremy Hunt's plan, here's a few other articles worth reading:

    Our at-a-glance guide to the Autumn Statement is here

    And check out what it means for you here

    Find out why middle earners are "set for a shock" with taxes going up and prices soaring here

    And check out the views of our BBC experts here to help you navigate the cost of living crisis here

    A reminder you can find loads more on our politics and business pages.

    Thanks very much for joining us.

    Today's writers were Laura Gozzi, James FitzGerald, Marita Moloney, Jo Couzens, James Harness and Emily McGarvey.

    The editors were Chris Giles, Alexandra Fouché and Jeremy Gahagan.

  2. A round-up of today's developmentspublished at 15:58 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    We'll be ending our live coverage shortly, but here's a recap of what's been happening today:

    • The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has accused the chancellor of putting off tough decisions for two years, allowing borrowing to grow and tax as a share of the economy to rise to historic UK highs
    • IFS director Paul Johnson said the truth is "we all just got a lot poorer", adding that putting off spending cuts until after 2025 could mean "the pain to come will be even greater"
    • The Resolution Foundation think tank said the plans pile further pressure on "squeezed middle" earners
    • Jeremy Hunt has defended yesterday's Autumn Statement, denying his tax plans amount to a raid on working people, saying it was not possible to raise £25bn by only taxing the wealthiest
    • The chancellor acknowledged there were "very difficult times ahead", but said his plans gave people "certainty" on how the government would help them through the recession
    • Labour said the chancellor had picked the nation's pockets with "stealth taxes" and accused the Tories of crashing the economy and making working people pay
    • Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government should have asked those with the "broadest shoulders" to pay more

  3. Working out if you're in the 'squeezed middle'published at 15:50 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Robert Cuffe
    Head of statistics

    A stock image of a woman consulting her bills while sitting at a laptopImage source, Getty Images

    There’s no formal definition of the "squeezed middle".

    But if you think of it as the middle third, then it’s roughly people living in households which have between £30,000 and £50,000 to live on after taxes and benefits.

    You might still feel like the “middle” if you’ve got more than that, since you’re likely much closer to the average than you are to the top 1%.

    This handy tool, external from the Institute for Fiscal Studies lets you work out where you are on the UK income distribution.

    You’ll need to know how much you have to live on (after taxes and benefits) and how much council tax you pay.

  4. Fridges will cost more to run, says chocolate shop ownerpublished at 15:46 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Media caption,

    It's costing more to run our fridges, says the owner of Chocolate Fayre

    Some reaction now from the owner of a chocolate shop in Barnard Castle, County Durham.

    Kenny Walker says small companies like his suffer when the weather is warmer. To stop chocolates from melting in the heat, fridges and freezer have to keep running despite the cost.

    Kenny would like more help for businesses who are facing further rises in energy bills next year.

  5. 'Expensive car supplement' comes into playpublished at 15:27 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Theo Leggett
    BBC Business Correspondent

    On Thursday, the chancellor announced in his Autumn Statement that electric cars would lose their vehicle excise duty (VED) exemption from April 2025, and that owners of more expensive models would be affected too.

    The Autumn Statement doesn’t just ensure that electric car buyers will have to pay vehicle excise duty from 2025.

    Owners of electric models costing more than £40,000 will also have to pay the “expensive car supplement” as well.

    This is charged for five years, starting a year after the car is first registered. The current rate is £355.

    Alongside the standard rate of VED (£165), that would leave owners paying £520 a year.

    Among the models affected would be the Tesla Model 3, the second-best selling car in the UK last year, which is on sale from £48,490 upwards.

    One trade body, the Society for Motor Manufacturers, worries that the introduction of these taxes could penalise customers trying to adopt these newer, greener, technologies.

  6. Why the talk of the ‘squeezed middle’?published at 15:15 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Robert Cuffe
    Head of statistics

    We’re set to be 7% worse off next year on average – through a combination of rising prices, lower employment and a higher tax burden.

    That’s pretty stark – the worst fall in living standards in decades, wiping out about eight years of improvements.

    But the government is stepping in to support the poorest – rising benefits in line with inflation, removing the benefit cap for a year and additional cash payments that will cover the cost of energy price rises for the eight million poorest households.

    People who aren’t on benefits won’t get those cash payments and so will have to find (on average) £900 more for energy.

    House prices are set to fall by 9% (because interest rates are rising and the cost of buying a home or maintaining a mortgage will be too much for some).

    And freezing tax thresholds means more people will be paying tax, and more paying higher rate tax.

    Back in 1990, fewer than 4% of workers were paying the higher rate – but more than 20% will be by 2028, according to the influential think tank the IFS.

  7. IMF welcomes Hunt's budget planspublished at 15:00 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Plans unveiled yesterday by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have been welcomed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    A spokesperson said: "The announced fiscal plan navigates well the difficult trade-off between fighting inflation and protecting household incomes" during a recession.

    The praise is significant, because just several weeks ago, the IMF issued a rare criticism of the budgetary plans announced by Hunt's predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng, during the short-lived government of Liz Truss.

    Those plans risked worsening the cost-of-living crisis, the IMF said, but Hunt's new proposals represent an effort to "better protect the vulnerable and to prioritise education, health, and investment".

    Despite the warm words, there was a warning earlier that the country "just got a lot poorer". That grim pronouncement came from the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank.

  8. Another lost decade for improvements in living standards, says IFSpublished at 14:25 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Andy Verity
    BBC Economics correspondent

    You may want to look away now if you don’t want to spoil your Friday.

    Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank highlights that this could be another lost decade for improvements in living standards - if forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) prove right.

    That means wage rises failing to keep up with price rises, and taxes taking more of your income away - meaning you can buy less stuff, and gradually get worse off.

    We already had the worst decade for improvements in living standards in two centuries following the financial crisis. If we have another one, then on one measure of living standards – real household disposable incomes – we’re likely to be 32% worse off than we would have been had incomes continued to grow as they did before 2008.

    A chart by the IFS entitled "heading for another lost decade" showing that incomes failed to keep up with expectations following the global financial crisisImage source, Institute for Fiscal Studies
    Image caption,

    IFS analysis has contrasted how real incomes might have risen based on pre-2008 trends (blue dotted line), versus how they have performed in reality (green line, including dashed area showing a forecast)

    As the IFS chart above shows, from the Second World War through to the 2000s, wages consistently rose faster than prices (with a few exceptions).

    That is what changed most profoundly when banks crashed the economy with reckless lending in the noughties.

    According to the IFS, we’ve had a number of economic own goals since then which have made things worse: squeezing investment, squeezing education, Brexit and a mini-budget unleashed under former Prime Minister Liz Truss.

  9. UK house prices forecast to fallpublished at 14:03 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Expect a fall in UK house prices in the next two years, the government's official forecaster - the Office for Budget Responsibility - has said.

    A drop of 9% is expected between now and autumn 2024, it suggests.

    That will be a relief to some potential first-time buyers following a period of sharp rises in property prices.

    But it only reverses this year's increase and a squeeze on their own finances will limit their ability to save for a deposit.

    Read the full story here.

  10. County Durham pub-goers react to chancellor's planspublished at 13:47 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    The announcements contained in yesterday's Autumn Statement have an impact on all of our pockets - from pensions to tax rises.

    Watch the clip below to see how Jeremy Hunt's announcement went down with pub-goers in the north-east of England.

    Media caption,

    Autumn Statement: views from a County Durham pub

  11. Analysis

    Cuts, Brexit and the political battles to comepublished at 13:28 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Chris Mason
    Political editor

    The crucial judgement on the Autumn Statement will be, does what we heard from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt yesterday amount to making a bad situation a little less bad or does it make it worse?

    Here's the problem for the government: even if a set of ideas makes a grim situation a little less grim, it is still a grim situation.

    And it's likely ministers will get the blame for that.

    The coming political argument will be all about who is judged to be the competent and trustworthy stewards of very, very difficult times.

    Labour accept the size of the financial "black hole" set out by the Office for Budget Responsibility. So the terms of trade between the Conservatives and Labour on this match up.

    But then there are the policy choice differences between them, and the other parties.

    Take one example: Labour would go after so-called non doms, Hunt says he has chosen not to.

    Then there is income tax. The government chose to make the best paid pay more. And they chose that, over time, more people should pay income tax and pay more of it.

    Read the analysis in full here.

  12. Hunt hoping for good news but things could be even worse, warns IFSpublished at 13:13 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    British one pound coinsImage source, PA Media

    As we've reported, the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has accused Chancellor Jeremy Hunt of putting off tough decisions with his Autumn Statement.

    Director Paul Johnson said that rather than implement a painful package of spending cuts that could turn out to have been unnecessary, Hunt is hoping good news comes along and the cuts won't be necessary.

    But the economist warned "uncertainty runs in both directions" and things could turn out to be even worse predicted and the pain to come even greater.

    This is a chancellor erring on the side of caution in terms of protecting spending and the economy in the short run, rather than prioritising the shoring up of public finances, says Johnson.

    Acknowledging Hunt was "hemmed in" by issues including "dreadful growth prospects" he said he saw "no sense of strategy" in yesterday's statement.

  13. What's been happening so far today?published at 13:00 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    If you're just joining us or need a reminder of the latest, here's a recap of today's developments:

    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has defended yesterday's Autumn Statement, denying his tax plans amount to a raid on working people
    • Hunt acknowledged there were "very difficult times ahead", but said his plans gave people "certainty" on how the government would help them through the recession
    • The Resolution Foundation think tank says the plans pile further pressure on "squeezed middle" earners
    • The government has yet to make a decision about raising fuel duty and has delayed a cap on social care costs, but Hunt insists he is not deferring difficult decisions
    • But the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has accused Hunt of deciding to allow borrowing to grow, putting off difficult decisions for two years and allowing tax as a share of the economy to rise to historic highs for the UK. "The truth is we all just got a lot poorer," said its director Paul Johnson
    • Labour said the chancellor had picked the nation's pockets with "stealth taxes" and accused the Tories of crashing the economy and making working people pay
    • Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said "fairer choices" could have been made and that the government should have asked those with the "broadest shoulders" to pay more
    • The SNP's leader in Westminster Ian Blackford accused Hunt of making "political choices" to cut public spending. He suggested the government could have gone further with its windfall tax on the oil and gas industry, and chosen to tax those with non-dom status
  14. Analysis

    Question marks remain over future cuts and spendingpublished at 12:53 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Iain Watson
    Political correspondent

    Everyone is going to be affected one way or another by the Autumn Statement. Businesses are especially anxious to find out what help they'll get with energy bills after the six-month assistance runs out next year.

    People will still be working out what this means for their household budgets, and that isn't quite clear.

    For example, we'll know further down the line after the next election the government is pencilling in real terms cuts for many departments, but won't tell us where the axe will fall.

    They're going to have an efficiency review, and that's also still a bit of a mystery.

    File photo of a phone showing an energy bill alongside some pound notes and coinsImage source, PA Media

    What we do know is household fuel bills are going to go up substantially unless you're a pensioner or on benefits - if you're not, then you could see this rising by £500 a year.

    It's interesting that the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) was saying this morning that "middle Britain" could be in for a shock because there are people who are seen to be too well-off to get state help, but on the other hand are already struggling with high fuel costs.

    The other area where there's a potential question mark is how much extra people have to pay in council tax next year.

    The Treasury is assuming that 95% of councils will increase council taxes, but you won't necessarily know until much later whether it will be your council.

  15. Analysis

    Concerns social care reform being kicked into long grasspublished at 12:34 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Alison Holt
    Social affairs correspondent

    Andrew Dilnot led an inquiry over a decade ago, which recommended that there should be a limit to the amount any one person should have to pay for care over their lifetime.

    At the moment, we have a system where if you have savings or assets worth above £23,250 then you pay for all the support you need with day to day living.

    If you have less than that, then you'll get some help from your local authority. The point the inquiry made was that unfairness was built into the existing system.

    Some people, for instance those with dementia, could pay catastrophic costs across their lifetime for the support they needed to survive.

    Dilnot's plan was to set a clear limit on care costs to give people the certainty which would allow families to plan. Last year, the government said it would set a cap at £86,000.

    They also said they would raise that £23,250 threshold at which people get some council support up to £100,000 .

    That was due to come in October next year, but it is now being delayed by at least two years.

    The concern is that by pushing it back beyond the next election, the plans are effectively being kicked into the long grass.

    Remember, this is a system that government after government, of all political hues, have said there's a problem here, we should be trying to fix it. So far, all of them have in the end ducked it.

  16. Social care sector let down, again - economistpublished at 12:22 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Sir Andrew Dilnot during an interview with BBC News

    Where social care is concerned, the Autumn Statement saw further funding pledged for the sector in England, which is set to benefit from £2.8bn extra next year and £4.7bn the year after.

    Meanwhile, a planned £86,000 cap on personal social care contributions, which had been due in October 2023, has been delayed by two years.

    Andrew Dilnot, who devised the policy more than a decade ago, says there is no excuse for the two-year delay, stating that successive governments have failed to fix the sector.

    "I think people across the country should be angry about this, this isn't by any means the first time social care has been let down," he tells BBC News.

    "It really is time for us to think about social care and for really vulnerable people that are protected by it as a top priority, not the one that can be put aside."

  17. How changes to tax thresholds affect youpublished at 12:11 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Robert Cuffe
    Head of statistics

    One policy from the chancellor’s plans that’s set to affect the “squeezed middle” is a decision to freeze tax thresholds - here’s why.

    Freezing thresholds, as the chancellor pledged to do yesterday, means you will pay more tax.

    Say you’re lucky enough next April to get a pay rise that just about keeps pace with inflation at that time (which is forecast to be about 7%).

    Your pay cheque will be bigger, but you won’t actually be any better off: prices have risen by as much as your salary.

    Actually, you’ll be worse off: the government will take about £300 out of your increased wages if you’re a basic rate taxpayer.

    If you’re a higher rate taxpayer, they’ll take about £670.

    A BBC bar chart based on figures from Ernst & Young shows how the extra tax and National Insurance you pay each year will depend on which tax band you're in - £298 for the basic rate, £670 for the higher rate, and £761 for the additional rateImage source, .

    As the above bar chart shows, those on the top rate of income tax would pay little more than those in the income-category below – showing it really is the "squeezed middle" who stand to be most affected by this policy.

    Until 2021, the government used to lift the amount you could earn before paying tax (or higher rate tax) each year so that people wouldn’t get trapped in this way.

    But they’ve “frozen” the thresholds until 2028, bringing more than three million people into paying tax and another 2.5 million into paying higher rate tax by 2028.

    And of course, it costs £300 next year, even more the year after, and even more the year after that.

  18. WATCH: 'It keeps getting worse' - reaction to Hunt's planspublished at 11:54 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    We speak to people in Gloucester about their reaction to the Chancellor's Autumn Statement.

  19. BBC experts on six things you need to knowpublished at 11:33 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Photo composite of BBC experts

    As we've seen, what came out of the Autumn Statement will affect your take-home pay and household budget.

    BBC News has experts dedicated to helping audiences navigate the cost-of-living crisis - we've compiled all their advice and insight into this page. Here is an overview:

    • Cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey says any raises or increases in salary before 2028 will mean a greater proportion of your income is taxed
    • Cost of living correspondent Coletta Smith explains what help is available for those worrying over the forecasted rise in energy bills coming in April
    • Business journalist Hannah Miller tackles the benefits question - and says that despite the record boost to benefits and the state pension, many won't really feel they're better off
    • Employment correspondent Zoe Conway talks us through changes to the minimum wage and explains why you might get a call from an "employment coach"
    • Economics editor Faisal Islam looks at the bigger picture as unemployment rises and household incomes fall
    • And business editor Simon Jack tells us the glaring omission in the government's spending plans is how much support businesses will get towards their energy bills next year
  20. 'They never seem to look after the middle families' - your views on the Autumn Statementpublished at 11:19 Greenwich Mean Time 18 November 2022

    Our colleagues at BBC Radio 5 Live have been hearing reactions to the Autumn Statement from people around the UK.

    Sharron in Coventry is disabled and doesn't qualify for benefits as her husband earns just over the means-testing threshold.

    She says the Autumn Statement will mean her family are "having to pay more" in tax, but still don't qualify for help.

    "They never seem to look after the middle families," she says, "it's always taking more from us, but we already struggle as it is."

    Mike in Norfolk and his partner (picture provided by Mike)Image source, .
    Image caption,

    Mike may have to cut hours for his staff

    Mike in Norfolk runs a small business and says he may have to cut hours for his staff because he can't afford to pay the increased minimum wage.

    "In real terms, the increase in the national living wage, which we support highly, in a 37-hour week is roughly a £2,000 increase a year," he says.

    "If you've got five members of staff, that's another £10,000 off your bottom line."

    James in Manchester is the main breadwinner of his household, earning between £125,000 and £150,000 a year, with his partner earning a much lower wage in the NHS.

    He says nobody is going to feel sorry for him as he earns a large wage, but he says he's concerned for the future as his mortgage is set to double in 18 months' time.

    "I'm aware there are the world's tiniest violins playing," he says, "but [our finances] are already squeezed."