Summary

  • Analysts from the IFS think tank have given their take on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's Budget

  • They say it is difficult to calculate what effect childcare and pension changes will have on the workforce

  • Hunt says extending free childcare to include younger children will make it easier for more parents to work

  • Independent budget watchdog the OBR expects the move will bring 60,000 more people into the workforce

  • Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves earlier criticised the speed at which his plan will be introduced, but did not offer an alternative timeframe

  • On pensions, Hunt says scrapping the £1m tax-free cap on pension savings will keep key NHS staff from retiring - but can't say how many

  • Labour has vowed to reverse the move, saying it only helps the richest in the country

  1. Analysis

    Hunt's Budget is focused on the next electionpublished at 19:54 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Faisal Islam
    Economics editor

    The big claim from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is a modest one - we are no longer going into recession, and inflation will fall faster.

    The plans to boost growth look like microsurgery: several dozen measures, designed to unlock two key self-admitted problems - poor business investment, and getting the workforce back up to full strength.

    And that surgery has a notable timing - all frontloaded to provide as big a boost possible now, before the next general election.

    But some of the biggest measures run out just after the election, and that's why the forecasts from the government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), show growth declining afterwards.

    So it's maximising the bang for the buck early, trying to get a deliverable, visible, noticeable impact for voters by the time of the election, which we're expecting by late 2024.

    Read more here.

  2. Analysis

    UK quantum computing gets a boostpublished at 19:53 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Zoe Kleinman
    Technology editor, BBC News

    In the global race to develop quantum computing the UK is keen to not get left behind.

    Quantum computing is a complicated but far more powerful form of computing than anything we have right now, even current supercomputers. It opens up many possibilities for huge advances in things like medical research and climate change modelling.

    But it is also widely believed that it will mark the end of encryption because those powerful machines will be able to crack even the most complicated of code.

    And that means that everything from your WhatsApp messages to state secrets will be wide open to exposure. Some regimes are believed to be already hoarding stolen encrypted digital documents for the day when they can be unscrambled.

    The chancellor's £2.5 billion over 10 years doesn’t really compare with the money being poured into quantum computing in China and the US, but it certainly gives the UK sector a significant boost.

  3. Parents 'incredibly angry' about another year without childcare helppublished at 19:49 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Parents around the UK have shared their disappointment at the chancellor’s announcement that the government will fund 15 hours of childcare a week for children over nine months until the age of two – from September 2024.

    Many who currently struggle with childcare costs say this help will come too late as their children will be too old be eligible by then.

    Tamer Shakran, 31, who works as an assistant branch manager at a roofing supplier in Basingstoke, said he and his partner currently spend £1,200 each month on four days of nursery a week for their daughter, who is nearly two.

    He said: "(I'm) incredibly angry about it ... This would have been an incredible help for families like mine but now we have to struggle on for another year.”

    Nora Parr, a part-time academic based in north London, said she and her partner currently pay £1,040 a month for four half-days of nursery a week for their 16-month-old daughter - said she feels “deflation” knowing it will be another year before help will be provided.

    She said: "I can't pick up a full-time role on the promise of help a year down the line.”

  4. Scottish secretary regrets whisky duty risepublished at 19:47 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Rajdeep Sandhu
    Political Correspondent, BBC Scotland's The Nine

    Scottish Secretary Alister JackImage source, PA Media

    Alister Jack, Scottish Secretary, has admitted his lobbying attempts against increasing some alcohol duties failed.

    Jack said: "Did I lobby against it, yes I did, did I lobby against it the last few years successfully yes, but this time the lobbying hasn't been successful."

    Asked if he wanted to apologise to the industry for failing in his lobbying efforts the Scottish secretary said it was a “matter of regret that whisky duty, spirits duty is going up, it’s not what I wanted for the Scottish industry."

    He said: "I understand that the industry will be upset to see duty increase". He said the Scottish whisky industry was a "buoyant" one and said the government was working hard to get trade deals and increase exports.

    Jack also urged the Scottish government to do something similar to the UK government on offering more free childcare.

    He said "I hope that the Scottish government will use that money as well to help people with the childcare which of course helps them get back into work."

  5. Stalemate in Northern Ireland could hold up much-needed cashpublished at 19:43 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Jayne McCormack
    BBC News NI political correspondent

    The Budget means Northern Ireland will get an equivalent of £130m in funding.

    Typically, it would fall to politicians in a power-sharing government at Stormont to decide how that money is spent.

    But there has been no government in Northern Ireland since February 2022 becuase of a boycott by the Democratic Unionist Party - Stormont's second largest - over post-Brexit trade arrangements.

    If power-sharing remains stalled it will fall to NI Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris to set a budget for the next financial year.

    Allocations to Stormont departments within that budget will then be the responsibility of senior civil servants, who may be reluctant to take spending decisions usually reserved for local politicians.

  6. What the Budget means for the devolved nationspublished at 19:41 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Earlier, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt presented his tax and spending plans to MPs. What does it mean for the devolved nations?

    Scotland - According to Hunt, the Budget will be worth an additional £320m to the Scottish government over the next two years.

    Hunt said the money would be on top of £1.5m of funding for the Cloddach Bridge in Moray and £8.6m for Edinburgh's festivals. He also said one of the UK's 12 new Investment Zones would be in Scotland.

    Northern Ireland - The chancellor said his Budget will mean an additional £130mfor public spending in Northern Ireland over the next two years and the Northern Ireland secretary or an incoming administration will decide how that money is allocated.

    In addition, the Budget contains an extra £3m to extend the Tackling Paramilitarism programme and £40m for third-level education.

    Wales - The chancellor announced anextension to energy bills support and £180m for the Welsh government in his budget. Other announcements include £20m to restore Holyhead Breakwater.

    The extra £180m over two years was said by the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank to be triggered mostly by the extra English spending on childcare, a matter which is devolved in Wales.

  7. 'I may still have to move back in with my parents'published at 19:38 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Ellie MonajemiImage source, Ellie Monajemi

    Young people have been telling us how the measures set out today by Jeremy Hunt like childcare and energy bill help will impact them - or not.

    Ellie Monajemi, 27, has a good job earning more than £30,000 per year, but is struggling to make ends meet.

    The rise in her energy and food bills mean she does not know if she and her partner will be able to afford to stay in the one bedroom flat they rent.

    Ellie had hoped Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would announce more help for first-time buyers at the Budget, but she was disappointed.

    "It still means I could be moving home," she says. "If we are already struggling, in debt because everything is so expensive, it's not going to be better. It's not like the wages are going up."

    Read more about Ellie's story here.

  8. Trussell Trust shares concern over plans to increase sanctionspublished at 19:28 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Emma Revie, chief executive of the Trussell Trust, which runs a network of foodbanks, said it was "vital" the chancellor's plans toreform disability benefits did not "leave disabled people wprse off".

    "We ask the government to work closely with people who will be affected to make sure that the changes do not perpetuate the need for food banks.

    She raised concerns about sanctions on people claiming benefits - which the chancellor said would become "more rigorous" - and the level of benefits payments themselves.

    “Steps to increase the use of sanctions give us cause for concern, as we know that sanctions can contribute to people needing to use food banks and can cause significant hardship for people in receipt of social security," Revie said.

    "Even after April’s uplift, the standard universal credit payment will still fall £35 short each week of covering the cost of essentials like food, heating and connectivity," she added.

  9. Fruit picking cheaper than going to gym, says farmerpublished at 19:21 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Simon Jones
    Reporting from Kent

    Clive Baxter
    Image caption,

    Clive Baxter says he needs another 50 seasonal workers at the height of picking season

    A farmer from Kent who struggles to find workers to pick fruit has welcomed attempts in the budget to get more older people to return to the workforce - saying it's a cheaper way for people to get fit than a gym membership.

    Clive Baxter - who grows apples, pears and plums near Maidstone - has 10 full-time employees, but needs another 50 seasonal workers at the height of picking season.

    He says it is difficult to find local people to do the job, and many of his part-time workers tend to come to the UK from eastern Europe on Seasonal Worker visas - but they are only allowed to stay for a maximum of six months.

    Baxter believes the government should provide farmers with funding to help train people in fruit picking, which might make the job more appealing to people living in the UK.

    He said: "The issue usually for the more experienced worker or the older person is their fitness, and some of the work on the farm, particularly fruit picking itself, is physically demanding.

    "That said, it seems to me quite a lot of people pay subscriptions to go to a gym to get fit, whereas actually they could do some of the work on farms and get paid to get fit."

    He said although he thought the government understood the pressure farmers were under to find labour, he felt ministers were also trying to keep immigration numbers down, leading to tensions.

  10. How 'green' is nuclear power?published at 19:17 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Esme Stallard
    Climate and science reporter

    The chancellor also had news for the nuclear power industry in today's Budget - he says nuclear will now be classed as “environmentally sustainable” by the UK government following consultation.

    This matters because it will give the industry access to some of the benefits that renewable energy currently receives such as lower taxes on investments.

    Scientifically, nuclear power is not a renewable energy source like solar or wind as the radioactive materials used to make nuclear energy are finite.

    But unlike fossil fuels, nuclear power stations do not produce greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide or methane.

    The UK needs an energy system that is almost free from emissions to achieve its climate goals. And the government hopes nuclear will plug the gap when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.

    Public concerns over the safety of nuclear power have always been one of the barriers to its expansion in UK and other countries globally.

    The International Atomic Energy Agency says nuclear power plants are among "the safest and most secure facilities in the world", external.

    But a number of high profile accidents including Fukushima and Chernobyl have seen large amounts of radioactive material released into the environment.

    Read more here.

  11. Millions more to pay tax, as thresholds not rising with inflationpublished at 19:02 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Dharshini David
    Economics Correspondent

    The chancellor is set to raise over £30 billion in tax by 2028 - equal to increasing the basic income tax rate by more than 4p - by doing nothing at all, as earnings thresholds at which taxes are paid won’t rise with inflation.

    The bulk of that money will come from taxes on employees' income, as 3.2 million new income tax payers will be created, according to the government’s forecasters.

    That in part reflects higher expected employment rates, but is mostly because more existing employees will be liable for tax.

    It will also mean 169,000 more people will have to pay VAT - many of them very small businesses or even self-employed people - as the threshold is frozen at £85,000.

    The forecasters reckon that will deter some from raising their income past that level - the opposite of the enterprise the chancellor says he wants to encourage.

  12. 'A lot of people are too disabled to work'published at 18:55 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Gem O'Reilly
    BBC News

    SusanImage source, Susan
    Image caption,

    Susan says she was told she was unemployable

    Among the measures announced today was the scrapping of the work capability assessment - the test that determines whether a disabled person has to look for work or not.

    I've been speaking to Susan - a 63-year-old Londoner who has an autoimmune disease, spinal and bowel conditions - who says the reform is "a good thing for people who can work" but asks how they will determine who can and cannot work?

    "A lot of people are too disabled to work. For example, with my autoimmune disease if I’m in a public setting, I could pick up an infection, therefore I cannot work."

    Susan says the reform on disabled people being able to seek work without losing financial support is positive. However she thinks there is little emphasis on those who don't have the ability to physically go out.

    She added: "I feel like they're trying to get people off disability benefits and back into the workforce but not everybody is able to work."

    When I asked her about what she wants, she said a better understanding of disabled people’s day-to-day needs and for the government to take into account individual cases.

  13. How much extra will nurseries be paid?published at 18:43 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Reality Check

    While the chancellor has increased the amount of free childcare available for pre-school children, the nurseries have been calling for more money to pay for those children who already get government-funded provision.

    Jeremy Hunt said he would increase that funding “by £204m from this September rising to £288m next year. This is an average of a 30% increase in the two-year-old rate this year.”

    We got in touch with the Treasury to ask for more details and they told us that the amount paid for two year olds is going up from £6 to £8 an hour, which is what the chancellor was referring to.

    But funding for three and four year olds is going up from £5.29 to £5.50 an hour, which is only about 4%.

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated this afternoon that the extra £288m is about a 7.5% increase in the current budget.

  14. Budget is bleak but better than some thought it would bepublished at 18:36 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Chris Mason
    Political editor

    A steady as she goes Budget. That’s how one senior figure described today to me.

    Fireworks have rather gone out of fashion after the political pyrotechnics of the last year.

    Against a backdrop that is bleak but better than some thought it would be, Jeremy Hunt sought to present himself as a responsible and cautious economic custodian, seeking to address some of the most thorny of problems.

    One of the biggest: luring people back to work, whether young parents or people in their 50s and 60s.

    The provision of childcare in England is a keenly fought political space; the Conservatives want to appear competitive as Labour sets out its rival pitch.

    There is deep pride within government at having settled things down after all the recent turbulence.

    But beyond that achievement, the political and economic landscape for the chancellor remains gloomy.

    Wages stagnant for many year, after year, after year.

    Income tax going up for millions as the thresholds remain the same and wages rise.

    Expect to see Labour leap on the pensions perks for the very best paid - and push that to a vote next Tuesday.

    The chancellor told me the economy has recovered from Liz Truss's brief and disastrous stint as prime minister.

    But opinion polls suggest voters have not yet forgiven the Conservatives.

  15. WATCH: Martin Lewis explains childcare announcementpublished at 18:26 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    In case you missed it earlier today, personal finance expert Martin Lewis can take you through the changes to childcare provision laid out in the Budget, and how exactly they will be introduced.

    You can listen to his podcast on BBC Sounds here.

  16. More help is going towards younger people than the retired - Huntpublished at 18:21 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    The chancellor was asked what he’d say to people who consider this Budget to be for the rich, allowing people who are already well off to save more into their pensions.

    Jeremy Hunt said he wants to help older people to stay in work, and that “by definition” older people will generally be on higher salaries.

    “But nearly five times more help is going to young parents to help them with childcare costs - a nearly 60% reduction in childcare costs,” says Hunt.

    He says it will make a difference to small businesses who worry about losing employees when they start a family.

  17. Childcare changes 'can't happen overnight' - Huntpublished at 18:14 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Jeremy HuntImage source, Pool

    In his interview with Chris Mason, the chancellor was asked why the childcare support he announced in the Budget won’t be fully implemented until September 2025.

    “We’re willing to start it as soon as possible,” said Hunt, “but the advice we had is that it’s such a big change in the market that it wouldn’t be possible to do it overnight”.

    Hunt says to implement the changes “in an orderly way” it needs to be “ramped up” over two years.

    Mason asked the chancellor if he was a “tax-hiking chancellor” given the freeze to the income tax threshold.

    “Conservatives cut taxes when they can,” replied Hunt.

    The chancellor says billions of pounds were spent during the pandemic and the energy crisis, so the Conservative government “will always be responsible with public finances”.

    “We’re not going to run out of money like the last Labour government, but to do that there are consequences.”

  18. If you want to work, we want to help you, says Huntpublished at 18:10 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Media caption,

    If you want to work, we want to help you - Jeremy Hunt

    Hunt tells Mason: "This is the most ambitious package of reforms to get rid of the barriers, to help us fill a million vacancies - and it's just the start.

    "The OBR say that it could help get a quarter of a million people back to work.

    "That doesn't matter if you're an older person, someone who's disabled, someone who's looking for work, a parent worried about childcare costs. The government is on your side, if you want to work we want to help you."

  19. Hunt promises 'better jobs and opportunities' for young peoplepublished at 18:01 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023
    Breaking

    Jeremy Hunt has told the BBC's Chris Mason in an interview that his Budget is a "growth plan that will mean there are better jobs and better opportunities" for young people.

    "We're going to fill [the] one million vacancies that companies up and down the country have, so they can grow faster. And we're going to encourage them to invest more with one of the most competitive regimes in the world."

    Hunt adds that 500,000 people left the labour force during the Covid lockdowns, that did not happen elsewhere, and that is why he has announced measures to encourage people back to work.

    On the continuing public sector strikes, he says: "We want it sorted out as soon as we can. We're willing to sit down and talk with all the unions who are on strike.

    "The one thing we won’t do is agree to a pay settlement that means inflation stays high because inflation is the root cause of people's anger.

    "We're willing to offer more, but we won't do anything that causes inflation to stay up because that would mean we would still have these strikes in a year’s time."

  20. In others news... global stock markets are plungingpublished at 17:55 Greenwich Mean Time 15 March 2023

    Dearbail Jordan
    Business reporter

    Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank imagesImage source, EPA

    Fears over the stability of the global banking industry show no sign of abating.

    Stock markets across the UK, the US and Europe have tumbled after being spooked by the state of affairs at Credit Suisse.

    The Swiss banking giant's share price plunged by as much as 30% at one point on Wednesday.

    Credit Suisse has been troubled for a long time, rocked by a series of scandals.

    However, its most recent discovery of "material weaknesses" in the way it prepares its financial accounts comes at a very bad time for the global banking industry.

    Just last week Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed, followed by Signature Bank in New York.

    Stock markets are sinking because is it is not yet clear whether the issues that brought down SVB are specific to the bank or are part of an industry-wide problem. It is also not known yet if Credit Suisse is exposed to SVB.