Image source, AFP

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says that the UK is "back on the path to healthy, sustainable growth" after the rate of inflation fell to 3.9% in November.

The government had set a target of halving inflation in 2023. Hunt says that "with inflation more than halved, we are starting to remove inflationary pressures from the economy. We are back on the path to healthy, sustainable growth."

He also acknowledges that many families are still struggling:

The current rate is still well above the Bank of England's 2% inflation target for the end of 2023.

Food and fuel drive drop in UK inflationpublished at 07:21 Greenwich Mean Time 20 December 2023

07:21 GMT 20 December 2023

Dharshini David
Chief economics correspondent

Inflation slowed by more than expected last month, thanks to the price of staples such as pasta, milk and butter.

The government has hailed the halving of inflation over the last year – but food is still 9% more expensive than it was 12 months ago.

And inflation overall is still almost twice the Bank of England’s 2% target.

The measures the Bank is monitoring particularly closely - services inflation and private sector wage growth - are easing, but may remain higher than the Bank is comfortable with.

The Bank’s governor had warned that the “last mile” in bringing it down to the 2% target would be the hardest, which is why it previously indicated that rates wouldn’t fall for some time.

But it may take some comfort from these figures; some economists are suggesting rate cuts could come by the summer.

So how come inflation - which measures the pace of price rises - has fallen by more than forecast?

A big factor was a fall in average prices for both petrol and diesel, as we heave been hearing from the chief economist at the Office for National Statistics.

The ONS says in November 2023, the average price of petrol stood at 151p per litre. That's down from 163.6p per litre in the same month last year.

As for diesel, last month the average price was 159p per litre, down from 187.9p in November 2022.

We're now hearing from Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), who says inflation has eased to "its lowest annual rate for over two years".

But, Fitzner adds, prices "remain substantially above" what they were before the war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

According to him, the biggest driver for November's inflation fall was a decrease in fuel prices.

Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter

The rate of inflation for November is lower than expected. Some economists had predicted that it would slow from 4.6% to 4.3% or even 4%.

But at 3.9%, that has beaten everyone's forecasts.

UK inflation slowed to 3.9% in the year to November, according to the Office for National Statistics - the lowest rate for two years.

It has fallen from 4.6% in October.

The inflation figure is presented as a percentage. It tells us how fast prices for goods and services are rising in the UK.

Inflation dropped to 4.6% in the year to October, down from 6.7% the month before - this was largely due to lower energy prices. It had been as high as 11.1% in October 2022.

The recent drop doesn’t mean that prices are dropping - just that they’re rising less fast than before.

Image source, .

Image source, Getty Images

As food inflation continues to impact many families' budgets, the BBC Food team has put together some advice on how to save money on Christmas food:

• Start with a budget: It helps to plan ahead and think carefully about hidden expenses, like the price of tin foil for roasting a turkey.
• Write a food list: Once you've got a budget figured out, ask which foods are most important to you and which you might not miss. For example, you might not be willing to give up Christmas pudding, but aren't that fussed about festive biscuits.
• Bargain hunt: Look out for planned offers on retailers' websites as well as for yellow sticker items which have been reduced.
• Use your freezer: Christmas foods that freeze well include meat joints and some cheeses like cheddar.
• Join up with friends and family: This means you can buy bigger pack sizes, which are often better value.

Read more from the BBC Food team here

Nicu Calcea, Colletta Smith & Tom Espiner
Business reporters

Those tucking into a traditional turkey for Christmas dinner shouldn't have to fork out much more than last year.

The price of a supermarket frozen bird has gone up by just 1.2% in a year, while fellow festive favourite the mince pie has risen by 25%.

Meanwhile, higher-end potatoes, stuffing mix and Brussels sprouts are cheaper, research for the BBC suggests.

Overall, a typical Christmas dinner costs around £32.35 this year, which is a 4.3% increase on £31 last year.

The research comes from retail tracking platform Assosia, which measured the annual change in prices for own-brand products across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl. It compares figures on 1 December 2023 with the same products on the same day in 2022.

Image source, .

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

Today we are due to get the latest official inflation figures for the UK, but ultimately, the rising cost of living can be different for everyone.

Individuals have their own inflation rate, depending on what they buy and the services they use.

One of the big issues of the last two years is that the cost of necessities – primarily heating and eating – have been driving price increases.

For those on lower incomes, and some vulnerable people, this takes up a bigger chunk of their income and so hits them harder.

Use our inflation calculator to find out how much prices are rising for you

Dharshini David
Chief economics correspondent

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

Inflation’s descent is likely to have continued last month – but prices generally were still probably 4% higher than a year ago, and food prices 9 to 10% higher.

And while the government is likely to hail the halving of inflation over the last year again, it would still be twice the Bank of England’s 2% target.

The Bank’s governor has warned that the “last mile” in bringing it down to that target will be the hardest.

The measures the Bank is monitoring particularly closely: services inflation and private sector wage growth are likely to remain higher than it is comfortable with.

It's for those reasons that the Bank has indicated that rates won’t fall for some time – in fact, unlike in other wealthy countries, it’s hinted that rates may even have to rise again if inflation in the UK remains particularly stubborn.

Image source, PA Media

Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services are rising (or, very occasionally, falling).

Soaring food and energy bills have been pushing prices up.

Although wholesale gas prices have come down very sharply since last year, they are still much higher than before the Covid pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, helping to push up the cost of living.

The soaring cost of energy has been a key factor driving the UK’s high inflation rate in recent months. Oil and gas were in greater demand as life got back to normal after Covid.

At the same time, the war in Ukraine meant less was available from Russia, putting further pressure on prices.

When inflation goes down, it doesn't mean prices drop - it means they rise less quickly.

Nadia Ragozhina
Live reporter

Image source, Getty Images

Thanks for joining our live coverage as we wait for the latest inflation figures to be announced - at 07:00. As soon as it drops, we’ll bring you all the details and analysis.

Inflation measures the pace at which prices are rising in the UK. It has been slowing down since record highs towards the end of last year.

The number we’ll get at 07:00 will tell us the UK's inflation rate in the year to November 2023.

Economists are predicting it could dip slightly lower to around 4%. The rate in October was 4.6% but a year before it had peaked at 11.1%