Summary

  • Occasional updates and analysis from the Newsnight team

  1. Sue Lloyd Roberts finds a donorpublished at 11:45

    James Clayton, Newsnight Political producer

    The award winning Newsnight  and ITV journalist, Sue Lloyd Roberts has found a stem cell donor. Sue has an aggressive form of leukaemia. Sue said: “I was on a filming assignment in Westminster Abbey earlier this week and I thought I’d light a candle while I was there. Almost immediately afterwards, my phone went "ping" and it was an email from the hospital, telling me that there was a matching donor who was available to donate right away..."

    Sue added: "The donor, whoever it is, has come to my rescue just in time because I need to have the transplant before I slip out of remission. If the news had come any later or they’d not been available so quickly, it’s very likely I would have become too unwell to go through with the transplant.”

    BBC Director-General, Lord Hall last month opened up the BBC to the Anthony Nolan Trust to allow people to join the stem cell register.

    Sue expressed her thanks:“I am so grateful to everyone who signed up to the Anthony Nolan register after hearing my story, and to all my friends and colleagues for their support. Because of them, lives will be saved.”

    Sue Lloyd Roberts
    Image caption,

    Sue Lloyd Roberts

  2. What happens next in the Greek crisis?published at 10:55

    Duncan Weldon
    Economics correspondent

    A defiant vote last night and today the Greeks are in the mood to compromise and do a deal. Tspiras's speech last night was restrained in its rhetoric and today the finance minister has gone (and his resignation makes clear that Tspiras regardless this as making a deal more likely).

     On Wednesday last week, in his letter to the creditors Tspiras conceded on almost all the major reform points (pensions, taxes, surpluses) in return for two years of financing, on Thursday the IMF argued that Greece needs debt relief. Add those reports together and the basis for a deal. That would be a deal on "economic reform in return for debt relief" and is likely to find support from the IMF, France and Italy. 

    The biggest block is the attitude of some more hardline creditors. They are weighing up the economic costs of a Grexit vs the political fallout of a Greek win. Decision time is tomorrow's summit. The ECB could bring the situation to a head earlier, but so far in this crisis it has made clear it is unwilling to force the issue and is waiting for a political decision.

    Today the key players are the French, they're insisting talks on debt are on the table and pushing for a deal. After years of German Eurozone leadership, this may prove decisive. Difficult days are ahead but nothing is set in stone yet.

    Greek Finance Minister, Yanis VaroufakisImage source, Reuters
    Image caption,

    Greek Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis resigned this morning

  3. NEWSNIGHT LIVEpublished at 10:33 British Summer Time 6 July 2015

    Monday 6th July

    We'll have the latest on the Greek debt crisis following the no vote in the referendum. We will also be previewing Wednesday's Budget.

  4. NHS delays Duchenne drug decisionpublished at 16:40

    Katie Razzall
    Newsnight Special Correspondent

    Yesterday NHS England announced it won't approve early funding for a drug called Translana. Instead, it will leave the decision to NICE, which will review the drug and report back early next year. 

    It's a big blow to families like the ones I met for a report earlier this week. Translana is the first drug to target the underlying causes of Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a fatal genetic condition affecting mainly boys.  Joanne Fernandes, whose five-year-old son has Duchenne, told me they are in a "race against time". Only boys who are still mobile can take Translana. But this awful condition puts them in wheelchairs often long before their teens.

    Today she talked to me about her despair at the NHS England decision to delay. "The worst thing about it is the waiting. We've been waiting since January when we heard Luca could benefit from Translana. Now it'll be another eight months. These boys don't have time to wait. They will lose the opportunity to take advantage of the drug if a decision isn't taken soon."

    You can view Katie Razzall's powerful Newsnight report below: 

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  5. Tsipras calls on voters to reject 'blackmail'published at 15:45

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    After a few chaotic days of campaigning ahead of the Greek referendum on the country's international bailout, the Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has again urged voters to reject what he called ultimatums and blackmail. In a television address, Mr Tsipras called on Greeks to reject the bailout proposal on Sunday.

    "Saying no to a non-viable solution does not mean breaking up with Europe, it means continuing the negotiation for better terms for Greece. I am calling upon you to say no to ultimatum, to blackmail, to the campaign of terror." 

    Greek voters will decide on Sunday whether they support the terms of further international loans, following months of tough talks with creditors. EU leaders have warned that a "no" vote could see Greece leave the Eurozone. Greece's economy is already under pressure after the country lost access to fresh funds. Banks have been shut and limits imposed on cash withdrawals.

    reek Prime Minister Alexis TsiprasImage source, AFP/Getty Images
    Image caption,

    Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras

  6. Cutting remarks from the Dalai Lamapublished at 14:37

    Marc Williams
    Newsnight Election Producer

    Dalai Lama interviewed by Emily MaitlisImage source, Office of HH The Dalai Lama

    One of the jobs which frequently finds its way onto a Newsnight producer's desk is the "cutdown": taking a long-form interview or film and getting it down to a length that won't make a Newsnight running order burst at the seams (particularly on the half-hour Friday programme). 

    Helpfully, there are many occasions when this job practically does itself. If it's a politician, then there will often be oodles of hesitation, repetition or deviation which are a honeypot for possible edits. 

    But not always. This past Monday, I perched a couple of feet from the Dalai Lama in a hotel suite next to Heathrow Airport as Emily interviewed him for over an hour. A half hour cut of it is going out at 7pm this Sunday on BBC4, but the interview could easily have gone out in its entirety.

    For tonight on Newsnight, however, I had to get that down to a svelte eight minutes. The danger is clear: you condense or chop so much that nuance is sandpapered away and the dynamic between interviewer and interviewee is lost.

    There were plenty of lovely exchanges between Emily and the Dalai Lama which had to bite the dust so as to ensure that our audience tonight wouldn't feel like the interview ducked matters of substance. Terrible casualties of this included a story from his childhood about how a huge black camel disturbed him as he used the toilet and his views on Bradford City FC. Watch the BBC4 version if your interest is piqued.

    Here are the highlights of what made the cut:

    • He talks about whether he could be the last Dalai Lama. In his view, because the institution dates from feudal times, whether it continued or not after his death should depend on whether a majority of the Tibetan people support it;
    • He says that the new Chinese leadership is more “realistic” about Tibet and he sees hope for the future (although he does also say that “totalitarian regimes can be unpredictable”);
    • He defends himself against the accusations of Shugden Buddhists, saying that Shugden advocates sectarianism;
    • He talks with emotion about the terrorist attacks in Tunisia and how he believes the fact that ISIS members wear masks in their videos demonstrates that they know that what they are doing is wrong.
  7. Greece's desperate gamblepublished at 12:25

    Duncan Weldon
    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Greece now faces a terrible choice and the Syriza government has found itself in a dreadful position. A yes vote will spell trouble to the government and, in the best case, lead to a deal which will lock in years more austerity in an already depressed economy.

    A no vote could quickly spiral into a euro exit and an (even more serious) economic crisis with bank failure, food and fuel shortages and a huge jump in unemployment. Whatever happens now, the economy is back in recession and times are tough. The banks are closed and whilst normal life goes on, things are getting tougher.

    The referendum due on Sunday feels less and less like a pre-planned move and more and more like a desperate gamble. So how did this happen? How did Syriza go from an electoral mandate, high hopes and much mainstream economic support to this total mess?

    On one level, their policy offer always seemed impossible: end austerity, get a debt write down and keep the euro was a combination that always seemed unlikely.  But with support for the Euro high, that's what they offered.  

    Fundamentally this seems to have been a huge strategic miscalculation. Syriza's economic-diplomacy was based on three assumptions. Three assumptions that have all been proved false. 

    First - contagion. The assumption was that the risk of a Grexit would see markets fretting that Portugal, Spain or even Italy would be next. The yield (or interest rate) on their sovereign bonds would rise as uncertainty increased.

    That hasn't happened. The markets have decided that what happens in Greece, stays in Greece. That's partly about the fact that Greece is now less financially interconnected into Europe, it's partly about the actions the ECB has taken to guarantee that the Euro can ride out a crisis but it's also about politics. The depression in Greece has been so severe, that an exact repetition of the events that brought Syriza to power seem less likely elsewhere.

    The effect of this is that Syriza thought that threatening Grexit was mutually assured destruction for them and the Eurozone. But instead it looks like a plan to blow yourself up if you don't get what you want.

    Secondly, Syriza assumed that the Greek economy was growing and that it was running a primary surplus (a budget surplus once interest payments are excluded).

    Traditionally debtors with a primary surplus have a strong hand. They can default on debts and, as the budget is balanced once interest is excluded, not need to borrow in the short term.

    Again, this hasn't been the case - the uncertainty over the future coupled with the severe liquidity squeeze on Greek banks imposed by the ECB has driven the economy into recession. The budget position is much worse than expected.

    Finally, they made political assumptions. They assumed Socialist and Social Democrat governments in countries like France and Italy would offer support. Early good relations here were hampered by amateurish diplomacy. Good will was quickly burned.

    They assumed that geopolitics would be a possibly decisive factor, that faced with cracks in European unity the U.S. would apply pressure for a deal. But whilst there has been some U.S. pressure it hasn't been enough.

    If one of these three assumptions had been correct, then the government's strategy might have had a chance of working, if two or all three had been right, they'd be in a strong position to win a good deal - keeping them in the Euro, writing down debt and winning strong concessions on their manifesto.

    The trouble is all three calculations have been proved wrong and yet they have carried on with a failing strategy regardless. Boxed into a corner, unable to implement their manifesto but unwilling to explain why to the Greek people - the referendum was their last resort. All three of Syriza's assumptions were reasonable but no plan survives contact with the enemy and their own lack of a fall back option has left them where they are today.

    Parthenon
  8. Hard decisions after Greek referendumpublished at 10:55

    Duncan Weldon
    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Sunday's vote is unlike any democratic event I've encountered before. Organised in just over a week, the country's future hangs in the balance but an unpredictable way. The Council of Europe have already expressed serious concerns over the nature of the vote - and I can see their point. Asking a two paragraph long question (technically on a specific proposal which has already expired) is a strange way to seek a mandate from the people.

    The outcome of the referendum is obviously binary: yes or no. But the outcomes that flow from those are much more complicated. If it's a yes vote, we'd be likely to see ministers resigning and possibly either fresh elections or a rejigging of the current coalition.

    A deal with Europe could follow - but any deal needs to be done by the 20th July when a key payment to the ECB is due. If the ECB reacted to a yes vote and new talks well, then some of the pressure on the Greek banks would be relieved.

    But a yes doesn't mean a deal is easy. The specific offer the Greeks are voting on is gone. And many of the creditors will seriously distrust the ability of the Syriza government to implement a deal they campaigned against.

    A no, on the other hand, would take Greece closer to a Euro exit. The Government deeply dispute that - they argue that a no would give them a mandate for further talks. Some of the creditors sound happier to continue talks, but others are after a no vote, Greece would have shown an unwillingness to do a deal. They don't want to reward brinksmanship.

    What is clear is that the chance of a Grexit rises if the vote is no and declines if it's a yes. And by contrast the chance of the government surviving in its current form is higher under a no than a yes.

    Having now spent a good few weeks in Greece over the last month, I think there are two points worth making. The county feels divided - and this referendum isn't going to help with that. And secondly, for all the talk of Greece voting on its future, the central issue is being avoided.

    The real issue is that a substantial number of the Greek people want to both remain in the Euro and want a better deal from their creditors. That option, so far, hasn't been available. The forced choice - would you rather leave the Euro or keep with tough conditions - is still being avoided.

    Greek flag in front on Syntagma SquareImage source, Reuters
  9. NEWSNIGHT LIVEpublished at 11:24 British Summer Time 3 July 2015

    Friday 3rd July

    Stories today include the latest in the Greek debt crisis, and the future of children's charity, Kids Company.

  10. Postpublished at 17:53 British Summer Time 2 July 2015

    Duncan Weldon
    Economics correspondent in Athens

  11. Fallon urges MPs to consider airstrikes against ISpublished at 16:48

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    The Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, has told MPs today that British air strikes on Syria won't take place unless there's a vote in favour of military action in the Commons. He says Britain should rethink its strategy if the killing of British tourists in Tunisia last week can be linked to the Syrian headquarters of the group calling itself Islamic State. 

    Earlier this year Newsnight Diplomatic Editor, Mark Urban got exclusive access to USS Carl Vinson; the aircraft carrier at the centre of operations against the so-called IS militants.You can watch his film below: 

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  12. Latest on Greek referendumpublished at 15:40 British Summer Time 2 July 2015

    Duncan Weldon
    Economics correspondent

  13. Syria: a new strategy?published at 13:15

    Laura Kuenssberg
    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    Are we about to have a repeat of two years ago, when the government pressed MPs to back air strikes on Syria

    There are important differences to then – the idea here would be to target so-called Islamic State terrorists, rather than trying to bring down the Assad regime which was the intention two years ago. As such the idea is less controversial as its legality is clearer, the former Attorney General Dominic Grieve told me this morning it would be "perfectly legal" . Since then so-called IS has inspired attacks on British citizens, and in Western cities.

    But Conservative rebels and politicians like Paddy Ashdown are already questioning the strategy for one simple reason. Would it work, or make the situation worse? Ashdown told me this morning this is not time for yet another "kinetic response", and that a proper diplomatic coalition was the only solution, wondering aloud if we had learnt anything from military involvement in Iraq and Libya.

    Whether the idea is a good one however is not the only question worth asking today. Is the government certainly hoping to carry this out in any case? Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, is out making the case. Yet Number 10 this morning has been sounding a much more cautious tone, making it plain they believe "more time, more deliberation" is needed before the government even decides that they actually want to take the issue to Parliament.

    I asked one senior MP this morning if David Cameron had raised changing the strategy on air strikes? A clear "No" was the answer.  For the Defence Secretary, there’s no question that showing the UK still has a big role to play in the world is a priority. But is his boss clear yet this is the right way to go about it? Don’t be quite so sure.  

    IS fightersImage source, Getty Images
  14. Will this banker pull the trigger on Greece?published at 10:59

    Duncan Weldon
    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Mario Draghi, President of the ECBImage source, AP
    Image caption,

    Mario Draghi, President of the ECB could force Greece out of the Euro

    The European Central Bank has found itself in a difficult position. The Greek government and its supporters accuse the ECB of a politically motivated attack on the Greek economy, of strangling the banks of liquidity and of failing to stem a bank run. For them the Bank has overstepped the mark from being a neutral custodian of the currency, to an active player in the negotiations trying to up the pressure on Greece.

    Meanwhile the Germans and others think the Bank has been too lenient on Greece. That it has extended too much support to a Greek banking system they see as insolvent and believe that by acting in this manner it has both prolonged the crisis by not forcing the Greeks' hand and built up dangerous level of exposure to a Greek default. 

    Attacked by both sides, I think it's hard not to conclude that the ECB is trying to do its job in incredibly  difficult circumstances. There is no legal way to throw a country out of the Euro, but the ECB could push the Greeks out if it wanted to. If it pulled support from the Greek banks, the Greek government would face a choice: watch the entire banking system collapse or leave the Euro and use freshly printed drachma to keep the banks afloat.

    My sense through out is that ECB President Mario Draghi wants to avoid making the choice. For him, Greece's future in the Euro is a decision for politicians, not for central bankers. He holds the gun in his hands, but won't pull the trigger until he has to - either once a political decision has been reached or, on the 20th July, if Greece misses a payment due to the ECB. Defaulting on the IMF was manageable for Greece, defaulting on the ECB wouldn't be.

  15. Making university teaching betterpublished at 10:35

    How do you get more out of our professors?

    Jo Johnson and the Prime MinisterImage source, PA
    Image caption,

    Jo Johnson and the Prime Minister

    I've written about a speech yesterday by Jo Johnson, the new universities minister. In it, he wrestles with quite a big problem. State-subsidised teaching is not reckoned to be that good in lots of institutions. But, at the same time, universities are jealous about guarding their liberties. So how do you square that circle? 

  16. NEWSNIGHT LIVEpublished at 10:31

    Thursday 2nd July

    Stories today include the latest in the Greek debt crisis, and the politics of airstrikes on IS in Syria.

  17. What happens next in the Greek debt crisis?published at 17:10

    Duncan Weldon
    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Greek flag on building in AthensImage source, Associated Press

    A chaotic and confusing day in the Greek crisis. There have been two seemingly contradictory developments and hints at a third, possibly more important move. 

    This morning the Greeks made a new proposal to their creditors - they accept (with only two relatively minor changes) the conditions they walked away from last Friday as part of a two year financing programme tied to talks on debt relief.

    In terms of the specific measures this represents an almost total climb down from their position of the last few months. Syriza has transformed from "end austerity" to "implement austerity in a left wing redistributionary way" to "slightly tweak existing austerity". That's quite a journey in a matter of weeks.

    But it would be wrong to see it as a total capitulation. Rather than signing up to a deal for a few months they are asking for two years of certainty and they still want to reduce the debt burden on Greece. The Germans haven't accepted this. For them this weekend's referendum was seen as a deal breaker.

    So, as Athens waited for a Tsipras television address, the rumour mill went into action. Sources for several hours on the ground expected a cancellation of the referendum in order to a get a deal. Similar expectations came out of Brussels. But when Tspiras spoke, he stood firm to his referendum and his call for Greeks to vote no. He argued that a no vote wouldn't be a rupture with Europe but a chance for new talks.

    So the Greeks will vote on Sunday to reject or accept a deal that is no longer really available. If the result is yes, the government will almost certainly fall - although may then be re-elected! If it's a no, the Greeks say they'll keep talking but it's unclear if the appetite will be there from the creditors.

    And the question of whether that appetite will be there is the third possible development today. Both Italy and France seem much keener on resuming talks post the vote, than the Germans. The creditors may finally be splitting.

    Each side is now making calculations. The creditors this afternoon were faced with a cynical choice: do a deal with a government who do not really trust to implement it or reject it and push on to a referendum that could leave them out of power. Compromise or try for regime change.

     For Syriza, the cynical take is that the renewed efforts at compromise are driven by two factors: the desire to show willingness to engage in order to keep the ECB in a position where it doesn't feel the need to kill the Greek banks and to influence Sunday's vote. By arguing that a no vote isn't a vote for a Euro exit they can make that option seem less "dangerous". Of course, it may also be that elements in Syriza think that the game is up, their bluff has been called and are looking for a way back.

    So - what happens now? 

    Nothing is certain but two factors are in play. The Greek economy is being slowly strangled by capital controls and ultra weak banks. Almost of the fiscal and economic assumptions that the various plans are based on are out of date.

    And in the 20th July, if no deal is done then a payment to the ECB will be missed. At which point support for the Greek banks will be pulled and euro exit looks almost certain.In the three weeks until then a lot could change. But the apparent opening of a gap between the creditors suggests that even a no vote "could" be followed by more talks.

    Today was about politics and the longer the politics drag on, the worse things will get for the Greek economy.

  18. Tsipras says referendum will go aheadpublished at 15:45

    Duncan Weldon

    The Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has vowed to push ahead with a referendum on Sunday on whether Greece should accept budget cuts in exchange for European loans. Mr Tsipras has said he's willing to accept the deal proposed by creditors, but has added a number of conditions. Speaking in the last half hour, he accused the EU of being undemocratic and urged Greeks to vote "no" in the referendum.

     Here are Duncan Weldon's latest thoughts:

  19. Tspiras about to address nation on TVpublished at 15:27 British Summer Time 1 July 2015

    Jess Brammar, Newsnight producer in Athens

  20. Germany plays down talk of Greek dealpublished at 11:50

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    Germany's finance minister has urged Greece for greater clarity about what it wants from creditors before serious talks on a new bailout can take place. This follows newspaper reports today suggesting that Greece's Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has made a fresh offer to his country's creditors.

    In a letter obtained by the Financial Times Mr Tsipras says he is now prepared to accept almost all of the conditions that were on the table before talks collapsed and he called a Greek referendum. But Germany's Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, has told a news conference in Berlin this morning that there is currently no deal on the table for Mr Tsipras to agree to.

     He said Greece needs to make clear what it wants:  "On the one hand, and that's the current situation reported in the media, Greece proposes a referendum calling to reject the deal on offer. Now they are talking about accepting something but there is nothing to reject or accept at the moment. Then there are reports the referendum might be cancelled. All this is not a basis to discuss serious measures. That is why Greece has to make clear what it wants and then we have to talk about this under very difficult pre-conditions. "  

    German Finance Minister, Wolfgang SchaeubleImage source, AFP/Getty Images
    Image caption,

    German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble