Shropshire defeat a dangerous moment for Boris Johnsonpublished at 08:40 Greenwich Mean Time 17 December 2021

08:40 GMT 17 December 2021

Laura Kuenssberg
Political editor

The government is going to try and say this is mid-term misery - and yes, by-elections are a way the public can stick two fingers up to a government when they're cross.

But let's be plain: this is an appalling result for the Conservatives, in a part of the country where the tradition of voting Tory is baked into the earth. This isn’t a little slip up, it’s a disaster.

People on the ground say the Tory campaign was going OK, until all of the recent shenanigans in Downing Street emerged, and that is when support fell off a cliff.

Boris Johnson does have an extraordinary ability to bounce back. But there are people in the Conservative Party who are pencilling in the possibility of a summer leadership election.

Things are febrile, and we shouldn't predict things with any certainty - but there's no doubt this is a really dangerous moment for the prime minister.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Dowden is asked about sleaze and the rules around the second jobs MPs can take on - he says there is a review of the rules at the moment.

"We will make a decision on that at the appropriate time," he says, adding: "We will determine the right outcome."

He champions the roll out of the Covid vaccine - and says the PM was behind the purchase of vaccine doses now crucial for the booster campaign against the Omicron virus variant.

Asked whether the government will come clean about lockdown-breaking gatherings in Westminster, Dowden says a party at Conservative Party headquarters last December was "appalling", "wrong" and that people have apologised for it.

Dowden says there was a perception that the government was not abiding by the rules, but he was confident an ongoing inquiry by the Cabinet secretary would find the PM did not break the rules.

Shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds says North Shropshire was not a seat you would expect Labour to win.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Conservative Party co-chair Oliver Dowden is now appearing on BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

He repeats his assurance that the government has heard the message from voters - but says the by-election was unique because it was caused by the resignation of former MP Owen Paterson over sleaze.

He adds that - if this represented a true sea change in British politics - we would have expected to see the Labour Party winning but "in fact their vote sunk".

Dowden says it is not right that no change is needed - "voters want to see us focused on getting on with the job".

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Earlier, the Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey was giving his reaction to the Lib Dem win in North Shropshire.

Asked whether the Lib Dems would begin discussions with Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party ahead of the next general election, Sir Ed Davey says there was no pact or deal in the latest by-election.

"Voters can work this sort of thing out for themselves, and I'm sure there were lots of Labour voters who voted tactically for Helen Morgan and the Liberal Democrats last night, and that's just what voters want to do," he says.

"I think actually the local Labour Party campaigned quite hard in this by-election," he adds, saying voters warmed to Morgan as a candidate who was working hard locally.

"I think we can remove a lot of those Conservative MPs, I think Liberal Democrats will be crucial for getting Boris Johnson and the Conservatives out of government," he adds.

BBC Breakfast

Challenged over the comments from Tory grandee Sir Roger Gale - who has said Boris Johnson is now on his "last orders" - Oliver Dowden says governments do lose by-elections mid-term.

"If the Liberal Democrats did as well in general elections as they did in by-elections they would have been in power for most of the past 50 years," he adds.

"It's not usually the case that governments win by-elections when they are in power. We didn't win a single by-election between 1989 and 2014 in power.

"But nonetheless, I do accept the message from voters in Shropshire that they are fed up. We have heard that message and we need to make sure we are focused on getting on with the job and that is exactly what we're doing."

The Liberal Democrat leader hails his party's "spectacular result" in the North Shropshire by-election.

BBC Breakfast

Asked if he has been in contact with Boris Johnson since the by-election results were declared earlier this morning, Oliver Dowden says he has been in text message contact with the prime minister.

Dowden does not reveal the contents of those exchanges, and adds that ministers are continuing to focus on the booster campaign.

"We are getting record numbers of boosters in people's arms," he says, adding that people do not want the government to be distracted by "noises".

Challenged over the result appearing to be a verdict on Boris Johnson, Dowden says the by-election began with allegations surrounding sleaze tied to the former Tory MP Owen Paterson.

He says the response to the frustration felt by some voters is that ministers focus on the booster campaign.

BBC Breakfast

Oliver Dowden says that, on the big calls that Boris Johnson has made in his government, over Brexit, the Covid vaccine and support for the economy, the PM has "shown the leadership and has got it right".

The Conservative Party co-chair says that he accepts voters are fed up, and he also understands concerns over the many reports over alleged breaches of lockdown rules.

It is important "we demonstrate that we are focused on getting on with what the people's priorities are and that means getting on with the job", Dowden adds.

He cites the ongoing booster jab campaign as the main task for government amid the current surge of the Omicron coronavirus variant.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Veteran Tory MP Sir Roger Gale - a critic of Boris Johnson - has been speaking to the BBC's Today programme.

He continues by saying the Conservative Party has a reputation of not taking prisoners when it comes to the performance of its leaders.

"If the prime minister fails, the prime minister goes," he says. "We got rid of a good prime minister to install Mr Johnson, Mr Johnson has to prove that he's capable of being a good prime minister, and at the moment it is quite clear that the public don't think that that's the case."

Challenged on this view of Theresa May and on his own anti-Brexit stance, Gale says "this has nothing to do with Brexit" and references the controversy last year surrounding the trip to Barnard Castle taken by Boris Johnson's senior aide Dominic Cummings at the height of the pandemic.

"I was dissatisfied then because it was not firm government and a lot of what has happened since then has made clear that a lot of those surrounding the prime minister are not the right people."

BBC Breakfast

Voters in North Shropshire have given the government "a kicking", Conservative Party co-chair Oliver Dowden has said.

Dowden says "we've listened and we've heard that message".

But he adds that Labour were "sinking" and "lost vote share as well".

"Nonetheless, I do hear the message from the voters of North Shropshire," Dowden adds.

Risk for Tories is that voter unhappiness is replicated elsewherepublished at 07:35 Greenwich Mean Time 17 December 2021

07:35 GMT 17 December 2021

Alex Forsyth
Political correspondent

The questions over Christmas parties in Downing Street undoubtedly ignited this campaign, but before that opposition parties had already picked up sense of people in this safe, rural Conservative seat feeling overlooked.

Both the Lib Dems – and Labour – pushed the idea of Tory voters being taken for granted, pointing to “levelling-up” money going to so-called “red wall” areas rather than North Shropshire.

The risk for the Conservatives is that same sense is replicated in other Conservative heartlands.

When Boris Johnson won in 2019 he ripped up the old electoral map and charged into Labour areas.

The challenge now is how to keep all those voters on side; how to find an approach that speaks to newly-won Tories in the Midlands and north without alienating traditional voters in other parts of the country.

It was only in May that the Tories swept Labour aside in a by-election in Hartlepool. In July there was talk of them winning in Batley and Spen, before Labour managed a narrow hold.

This result in North Shropshire without doubt demonstrates how quickly political fortunes can shift – and the recent turbulence in Westminster has played a significant part.

But perhaps it demonstrates a change in mood that runs deeper, and that could present a longer-term challenge for Boris Johnson’s Tory party.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Senior Tory MP Sir Roger Gale has said the North Shropshire by-election "has to be seen as a referendum" on Boris Johnson's performance.

"I think the prime minister is in last orders time," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"Two strikes already - one earlier this week in the vote in the Commons - now this.

"One more strike and he's out."

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Image source, PA Media

Sir Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, says it is a "watershed moment in British politics, it was a spectacular result".

"I'm just so proud of our party, our campaigners, I think we've brought hope to the nation," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"The Liberal Democrats have proven the Conservatives can be beaten anywhere and I think people who are so fed up with Boris Johnson, his incompetence and his behaviour, I think will be really happy about that."

Asked about the significance of the Lib Dems winning in an area that voted by a majority for Leave, he says that people have "moved on" and discussion now focuses on the health service and the rising cost of living.

He says Brexit was not an issue in this by-election and he sees North Shropshire as another type of "blue wall" seat falling to the Lib Dems.

Image source, Getty Images

If you're waking up to the news this morning, here's a recap of the night's events...

The Conservatives have lost the North Shropshire seat they held for nearly 200 years to the Liberal Democrats.

In what is being described as an astonishing rebuke of Boris Johnson's leadership, new MP Helen Morgan secured a majority of 5,925 - on a 34% swing to the Lib Dems, with a turnout of 46.2%.

The result will increase pressure on the prime minister after weeks of controversy on multiple fronts, including allegations of sleaze and rows about gatherings held at Westminster during last year's lockdown.

In her victory speech, Morgan said it meant the "party was over" for Johnson and his government.

Meanwhile, reaction to the result is beginning to come in from Tory MPs. Backbench veteran John Redwood said ministers must now review their policy choices.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

If the Richter scale is up to 10 - the North Shropshire by-election result would register an 8.5, says election expert Sir John Curtice.

He tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme the result is not quite unprecedented, but the precedents are not comfortable for the Conservatives.

A 34% swing from the Tories to Lib Dems since 2019 in the seat is comparable to the by-election in Christchurch in 1993 at the end of a Parliament that saw the Conservative government fall to the landslide of Tony Blair's New Labour.

"In a sense, two weeks ago, nobody would have seen this coming," Curtice says. "Two weeks ago, yes the Conservatives were in trouble - their position in the polls was down to neck-and-neck and they lost 13 points in the Old Bexley by-election.

"But [North Shropshire] was not a constituency first of all that at all looked like promising territory for the Liberal Democrats - it voted 60% to Leave - very, very different from Chesham and Amersham... and secondly while the Conservative position had weakened it hadn't weakened that much.

"The Liberal Democrats do look like they have reclaimed their mantle as the by-election party of choice," Curtice adds.

"Meanwhile, we're seeing Conservative voters and Leave voters in a true blue constituency taking the opportunity to protest pretty spectacularly about what they think of this current government."

Is Boris Johnson now becoming a liability?published at 07:00 Greenwich Mean Time 17 December 2021

07:00 GMT 17 December 2021

Ben Wright
BBC political correspondent

The collapse of the Conservative vote in a once true blue, pro-Brexit seat is disastrous for Boris Johnson.

The endless headlines about sleaze and parties, held in apparent breach of the government’s own rules, drove voters away from the Tories in remarkable numbers.

Now, the question is whether Conservative MPs lose confidence in their leader. Many of them have been in despair about recent events.

The readiness of Boris Johnson's parliamentary party to defy his authority was shown this week when half of Conservative backbenchers voted against the government's Covid measures.

No 10 may try to brush off this by-election as mid-term malaise. A protest vote that should be kept in perspective.

But just two years after winning an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives - some of Johnson's MPs may look at this result and ask if their leader is becoming a liability.

Thursday's newspaper front pages were published well before the result of the North Shropshire by-election, which was announced shortly after 04:15 GMT on Friday.

But there is some instant online reaction to the result, with the headline of the Daily Telegraph's website describing it as the "nightmare before Christmas", external and a humiliating result for the Conservatives.

The Times, external says it a stinging rebuke for the prime minister, while Mail Online says Boris Johnson has been given a political bloody nose by voters in an "astonishing victory" for the Liberal Democrats., external It adds the outcome will send shockwaves through the Conservative Party.

The Guardian, external says Johnson's aides will be alarmed by reports from North Shropshire of not just annoyance with the government but what it calls "some fairly significant and personal distaste for the prime minister".

Read more in our review of today's newspapers here.