A clear message from a true blue areapublished at 06:46 Greenwich Mean Time 17 December 2021

06:46 GMT 17 December 2021

Elizabeth Glinka
Political Editor, BBC Midlands, in North Shropshire

When the phrase "true blue" is used, North Shropshire is what it means. It is a very rural constituency, remote, there are five market towns, but the largest of those Oswestry is only around 20,000 people.

Food and farming is the major industry here, most people work in some way connected with that industry.

The area voted for Brexit, it is an area that is traditionally conservative both with a big C and a little c.

Of course, this whole by-election was kicked off by Owen Paterson, who resigned after being found to have broken the rules on paid lobbying at Westminster.

Owen Paterson was a pretty popular constituency MP - he was someone who was liked in the constituency.

On the day he resigned, people here were saying "clearly he had to go but it's a bit of a shame" so therefore at that point - even with a battle over sleaze in Westminster - you would have put money on the Conservatives holding this seat.

The way things have developed over the campaign it has got increasingly fraught and increasingly difficult for the Conservative candidate to get any kind of message across other than fire fighting this deluge of stories day after day from Westminster.

The Lib Dems, from a low base in the area, they were third in 2019 and they don't have many local councillors, they have put a huge amount in this - hundreds of activists putting leaflets through doors where people normally don't bother to do so.

They also has a message that is starting to cut through - that these true blue Tory areas have been forgotten by the Conservative Party.

It is "time to listen to Conservatives" according to a senior Tory MP.

John Redwood, the former Wales secretary and MP for Wokingham, asks on Twitter whether - in the wake of the North Shropshire by-election defeat - the government will now reflect on its policy choices.

"Will the chancellor now admit his high tax economic slowdown is wrong?" Redwood asks. "Will the environment secretary back British farming instead of trying to stop us growing our own food?"

1. Helen Morgan (LD) 17,957 (47.22%)
2. Neil Shastri-Hurst (Cons) 12,032 (31.64%)
3. Ben Wood (Lab) 3,686 (9.69%)
4. Duncan Kerr (Green) 1,738 (4.57%)
5. Kirsty Walmsley (Reform) 1,427 (3.75%)
6. Andrea Allen (UKIP) 378 (0.99%)
7. Martin Daubney (Reclaim) 375 (0.99%)
8. Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 118 (0.31%)
9. Suzie Akers Smith (Ind) 95 (0.25%)
10. James Elliot (Heritage) 79 (0.21%)
11. Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin) 58 (0.15%)
12. Earl Jesse (FA) 57 (0.15%)
13. Russell Dean (PartyParty) 19 (0.05%)
14. Yolande Kenward (ND) 3 (0.01%)

Liberal Democrat majority 5,925; Turnout 38,022 (46.2%)

North Shropshire is a largely rural constituency on the border with Wales, peppered with a few market towns.

Fewer than 80,000 voters live there, spread across Wem, Whitchurch, Ellesmere, Oswestry, Market Drayton and rolling Shropshire countryside.

Physically, though North Shropshire is among the largest constituencies in the West Midlands region.

The importance of agriculture and its subsidiary industries, like the abattoirs, plant hire, food producers, dairies and markets, is impossible to miss here.

Voters in North Shropshire also tend to be older - the county has an ageing population, with about a quarter of residents aged over 65.

It's traditionally seen as rural and wealthy and indeed generally it is more affluent than other areas of the country. However Shropshire Council has identified pockets of deprivation in Oswestry, Whitchurch and Market Drayton.

Jonathan Blake
BBC political correspondent

When polling stations closed last night the race appeared to be close - by the early hours the Liberal Democrats were claiming victory.

The result announced soon after 4am confirmed their confidence. They had beaten the Conservatives by a majority of almost 6,000 votes, on a turnout of just over 46%.

In her victory speech, Helen Morgan said North Shropshire had spoken on behalf of the British people and said loudly and clearly to Boris Johnson that the party was over. Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said it was a "watershed moment in our politics".

It is a stunning victory on what should be the safest of Tory territory. But the Lib Dems seized it after a torrid run of events for the government and their message - that people felt taken for granted and left behind in this rural constituency - resonated with voters.

Image source, PA Media

Thursday's newspaper front pages were published well before the result of the North Shropshire by-election, which was announced shortly after 04:15 GMT on Friday.

But there is some instant online reaction to the result, with the headline of the Daily Telegraph, external's website describing it as the "nightmare before Christmas" and a humiliating result for the Conservatives.

The Times, external says it a stinging rebuke for the prime minister, while Mail Online, external says Boris Johnson has been given a political bloody nose by voters in an "astonishing victory" for the Liberal Democrats.

It adds the outcome will send shockwaves through the Conservative Party.

The Guardian, external says Mr Johnson's aides will be alarmed by reports from North Shropshire of not just annoyance with the government - but what it calls "some fairly significant and personal distaste for the prime minister".

Image source, PA Media

The shock result announced just after 4.15am was a remarkable turnaround for the new Lib Dem MP Helen Morgan.

She stood in the 2019 general election in the same seat but won just 5,643 votes - 10% of the total.

This time round, she took 17,957 votes - more than 47% of the total.

The Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey is in self-isolation after testing positive for Covid - but that hasn't stopped him celebrating his party's big win in North Shropshire...

• The Liberal Democrats have won the North Shropshire by-election, overturning a huge Conservative majority
• In 2019, the Conservatives won with a majority of almost 23,000 - now the Lib Dems have a majority of almost 6,000
• The area had been represented by Conservatives for almost 200 years
• The new Lib Dem MP, Helen Morgan, tells Boris Johnson "the party is over"
• The defeated Conservative candidate, Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst, says "by-elections are never an easy thing to do" for governing parties

More now from Martin Daubney, who was unsuccessful as the Reclaim Party's candidate in North Shropshire.

In a tweet, he says smaller parties "didn't get a look-in", with the result amounting to "carnage" for the prime minister and "a total rejection of Johnsonism".

"It's a nightmare before Christmas for the Conservatives," he adds.

There have been comparisons drawn between the Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire by-elections - here's a quick recap of why.

Back in June, the Liberal Democrats pulled off a shock victory in the Buckinghamshire seat - overturning a 16,000 majority in a seat that had always voted Conservative.

Sarah Green won by 8,028 votes from the Tories, with the Green Party in third place.

A referendum on Boris Johnson's government?published at 05:06 Greenwich Mean Time 17 December 2021

05:06 GMT 17 December 2021

Lewis Goodall
Newsnight policy editor

There is absolute jubilation from the Liberal Democrats. They're having a hell of a year.

This latest victory comes off the back of the Chesham and Amersham by-election in the summer, which was an enormous swing - although not as big as this one.

Jubilation from the Liberal Democrats, but as you also might expect, complete silence from the Conservative Party.

But they will be awake, they will be seeing this, Downing Street will be seeing this and they will be thinking about what do we do now to re-group.

After Chesham and Amersham, the prime minister rather breezily said he thought it was about local issues peculiar to that constituency, there was HS2, there was planning and so on.

This is a more tricky thing for him to write off.

Not only because this is a more tricky political terrain for him now than it was in the summer. Not only because there aren't obvious local issues that he can point to and say that this was about.

But also because in many ways, this was - at least the Liberal Democrats put it this way - a referendum on Boris Johnson and how he runs his government.

Newly-elected Lib Dem MP Helen Morgan speaks after her shock North Shropshire by-election win.

Image source, Reuters

Defeated Conservative candidate Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst calls the by-election result "disappointing".

Asked if Boris Johnson was to blame for the result, he tells reporters: "We've run a positive campaign here, I'm extremely proud of the work that everybody's done.

"Of course it's a disappointing result for us."

Challenged on if the Conservative Party needs to change, he says: "We're 11 years into a Conservative government, by-elections are never an easy thing to do."

Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, calls the North Shropshire victory a "watershed moment in our politics" that offers "hope" to voters across the country "that a brighter future is possible".

He adds: "Millions of people are fed up with Boris Johnson and his failure to provide leadership throughout the pandemic and last night the voters of North Shropshire spoke for all of them.

"From Buckinghamshire to Shropshire, lifelong Conservatives have turned to the Liberal Democrats in their droves and sent a clear message to the prime minister that the party is over."

Helen Morgan says the Liberal Democrats have won the support of traditional Conservative voters, as well as others who have lent her their votes.

She says the people who voted for her believe "our politics should be about creating a better country for us all, not a nightly soap-opera of calamity and chaos".

The newly-elected MP specifically thanks those traditional Labour voters who lent their vote to her, saying they had shown "that together, we can defeat the Conservatives, not with deals behind closed doors, but with common sense at the ballot box".

She takes aim at Boris Johnson's leadership and his involvement in controversies, including what she calls the "questionable" donations for the refurbishment of his Downing Street flat and how he "misled" the nation about Christmas parties during lockdown.

"Tonight the people of North Shropshire have said enough is enough, they have said you are unfit to lead and that they want to change," she says.

Image source, Reuters

North Shropshire's new MP Helen Morgan has taken to the podium.

In her victory speech, she says the people of North Shropshire have spoken on behalf of the British people and "said loudly and clearly, Boris Johnson, the party is over".

She says his government "run on lies and bluster" will be challenged and held accountable - and "can and will be defeated".

Morgan adds the Liberal Democrats' victories in Chesham and Amersham and now North Shropshire show the party is "taking on the Conservatives and winning".

1. Helen Morgan (LD) 17,957 (47.14%)
2. Neil Shastri-Hurst (Cons) 12,032 (31.59%)
3. Ben Wood (Lab) 3,686 (9.68%)
4. Duncan Kerr (Green) 1,738 (4.56%)
5. Kirsty Walmsley (Reform) 1,427 (3.75%)
6. Andrea Allen (UKIP) 378 (0.99%)
7. Martin Daubney (Reclaim) 375 (0.98%)
8. Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 118 (0.31%)
9. Suzie Akers Smith (Ind) 95 (0.25%)
10. Russell Dean (PartyParty) 90 (0.24%)
11. James Elliot (Heritage) 79 (0.21%)
12. Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin) 58 (0.15%)
13. Earl Jesse (FA) 57 (0.15%)
14. Yolande Kenward (ND) 3 (0.01%)

Liberal Democrat majority 5,925; Turnout 38,093 (46.28%)

Helen Morgan won with 17,957 votes.

The Conservative candidate Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst came second with 12,032 votes, followed by Labour's Ben Wood with 3,686.