One cabinet minister predicts 'easy win' for PMpublished at 16:09 British Summer Time 6 June 2022

16:09 BST 6 June 2022

Jonathan Blake
BBC political correspondent

As the prime minister meets Conservative MPs ahead of tonight's vote of confidence, one cabinet minister said Johnson needs to remind people of their party's "purpose on earth".

They accepted that the PM needs to persuade some colleagues to support him - but still predicted a "warm reception".

As MPs gather in Parliament, another cabinet minister said the vote this evening would be an easy win for Johnson.

Behind closed doors, the prime minister is about to start addressing MPs as he makes his case to stay on as leader.

Here's what's happened so far today:

• A confidence vote was announced for 18:00 BST after at least 54 MPs - 15% of the parliamentary party - requested one
• The result is due to be announced at 21:00 BST, and a majority - meaning 180 MPs, if everyone votes - will need to vote against Boris Johnson for him to stand down as party leader and PM
• Earlier, the PM wrote to MPs asking for their backing, saying it would "put an end to the media's favourite obsession" and let him "get on with the job"

• Most of the cabinet have declared they will back the PM, but former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who has been tipped as a possible leadership contender, said he will be voting "for change"

• Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called on Tory MPs to "show some leadership" and "get rid" of Johnson

Boris Johnson is making his pitch to Conservatives in Parliament at 16:00 BST - before they hold a confidence vote at 18:00.

Our political correspondent Nick Eardley says the prime minister will tell his MPs: "This is the time to lift our gaze from our navel."

He is expected to also tell Tories: "We can get on, we can deliver, we can unite."

The PM’s allies believe he is on course to win tonight’s vote - and are asking Tory MPs the point of voting against him, only to weaken the government.

Lesley Day
Reporting from Glasgow

We reported earlier on the mood at the Royal College of Nursing's congress in Glasgow.

Now the RCN has unveiled a 7ft (2.1m) letter to Prime Minister Boris Johnson calling on him “to get a grip”.

The letter warns about the focus shifting away from waiting lists, staff shortages and the cost of living, and that “every day you focus on yourselves, patient care suffers”.

As we reported earlier - listeners to BBC 5 Live have been sharing their opinions on whether Boris Johnson should survive this evening's confidence vote - or not.

Sarah in Maidstone, Kent, has met Johnson a number of times through her work.“He’s sweet and I got to take a very funny photograph,” she says, “but he’s not the guy you want at the top.

“We all remember the pictures of the Queen sat alone at the funeral, and Downing Street were partying throughout the night before the funeral.”

Elizabeth in Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire, says the country "doesn't want to get rid of Boris Johnson now".

"He's got the big things right. He was Ukraine coming before Putin invaded and started giving them help before the invasion.

"If you're talking about lying politicians, you've only got to look at Tony Blair who took us into a totally illegal war in Iraq."

Image source, Getty Images

Boris Johnson needs a convincing victory this evening or he will face "death by a thousand cuts", a former adviser says.

Will Walden, who was Johnson's spokesman when he was Mayor of London, tells the BBC's World at One that the PM is unlikely to resign and it would take "several people with revolvers in the room" to persuade him to go.

"Boris will be taken kicking and screaming out of the front door of No 10. There is no way that the thing that he has wanted all his life he is going to give up easily on," Walden says.

"Boris Johnson does not do reverse gear. He only does forward gear, and his mantra is plough on. Whatever the problem, plough on. Whatever the result, he will say it's done and dusted, on we go."

Walden says that outwardly, Johnson will say he takes criticisms seriously, but "internally I think he will be incredibly divided and confused and frustrated and angry all at the same time".

Don't bet on the Red Wall turning against Johnsonpublished at 15:12 British Summer Time 6 June 2022

15:12 BST 6 June 2022

Danny Savage
Reporting from Redcar, North Yorkshire

Redcar, in North Yorkshire, is a constituency which after years of voting Labour, backed the Tories at the last general election.

And it’s one of those places people will look at and wonder if the behaviour of Boris Johnson will see allegiances switch again.

Don’t bet on it. Having spent a morning talking to voters, there were more people supportive of the prime minister than critical of him.

There were certainly some people still angry about Partygate, and it will have lost the Conservatives votes.

But enough for them to lose a seat like this? Only an election will answer that question - but there are plenty of people in this town, far from Westminster, who think Tory MPs should back their leader tonight.

Image source, Getty Images

Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries has been on the BBC News channel, where she's asked about the possibility that 100 or even 150 MPs might vote against Boris Johnson tonight.

She says 14 million people voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 - "is it the place of a minority of MPs to override that?"

"Everybody always tries to write Boris Johnson off but all I would say is look at his track record," she says, pointing to his victories in London mayoral elections and the Brexit referendum.

She says the Conservatives need to "stick together" - and is asked whether her attack on potential leadership contender Jeremy Hunt is an example of that.

Dorries says she stands by her criticisms of Hunt, and claims he said he would not challenge the PM while the war in Ukraine continues.

She says she is "absolutely confident, 100% confident" that Johnson will win, but declines to give an estimate of his victory margin.

Image source, PA Media

Boris Johnson has been writing letters to backbench MPs to ask for their support ahead of tonight's vote - but has also stuck to the prime ministerial diary.

Earlier, he welcomed his Estonian counterpart Kaja Kallas for a meeting in Downing Street to discuss the war in Ukraine.

The prime minister had been due to greet Ms Kallas at the door to No 10 - but in a break with the usual protocol, chose to receive her inside instead.

Asked by reporters about Mr Johnson's mood on her departure from Downing Street, Ms Kallas paused for a moment before replying "good".

The PM also spoke on the phone to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this morning, with the pair discussing the UK's first delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine, according to No 10.

Rowan Bridge
Reporting from Bury

We've been to Bury, which is represented in Parliament by Labour MP Christian Wakeford, who defected from the Conservatives in January, and Tory MP James Daly - who won the seat from Labour in 2019 by just 105 votes.

Barbara Platt says she voted for the Conservatives and believes “Boris has gone through a lot” adding: “I think he should stay.”

She says “I totally disagree with it [the no confidence vote].”

Hair Salon owner Lizelle Bramall says she voted Conservative and thinks Boris has been a “good prime minister” because “he's helped businesses like ourselves through the pandemic with the furlough scheme".

Caterer Aayan Ghani says he’s “a Labour man” and feels "the problems that have been happening at Downing Street have not been rectified… [Partygate is] unforgivable… so yes we need a new prime minister”.

While bus Driver Niall Higson also voted Conservative and says: “Who can we replace Boris with? There's nobody there to replace Boris with.”

He adds: “I don't like what he's done during Covid [referring to Partygate]” but still believes “it's better the devil you know”.

Image source, Getty Images

Former Tory chief whip Andrew Mitchell has declared he will vote against Boris Johnson in tonight's confidence vote - adding that even if the PM survived the ballot, he will still be damaged.

Mitchell tells BBC Radio 4's The World at One that while he hasn't put in a letter to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, he will vote against the PM later.

He warns: "I very much fear if [Johnson] does win tonight it will be a Pyrrhic victory [one that comes at great cost].

"He needs to look himself in the mirror and ask himself what is in the best interests of our country and of our party."

Mitchell says that after a visit he made to a beacon-lighting event in his Sutton Coldfield constituency for the Queen's Platinum Jubilee celebrations, it was clear the public had turned against the prime minister.

Using a sports analogy, he says: "As I walked through the crowd it was very clear that the prime minister has not only lost the [support of the] dressing room - he has also lost quite a lot of people in the stands."

Image source, Getty Images

Some Conservative MPs who intend to vote against Boris Johnson say they are doing so partly because they believe he broke the ministerial code - something Downing Street denies.

So what is the code and what is Johnson accused of doing to break it?

The ministerial code is a rulebook that government ministers are expected to follow when in office, including an "overarching duty" on them to follow the law.

It includes a requirement to abide by the seven principles of public life: selflessness, integrity, honesty, accountability, leadership, objectivity and openness.

If the code is broken, the convention in Westminster is for the minister to resign.

But where a breach of the code is alleged, it is up to the prime minister to decide whether and how it is investigated, as well as how it should be enforced.

Last week, Johnson's standards adviser Lord Geidt said there was a "legitimate question" as to whether Johnson's Partygate fine was a breach of the code in itself.

Today, his anti-corruption champion John Penrose said Sue Gray's criticism of his leadership, for allowing further breaches of lockdown rules in Downing Street, also constituted a breach of the code.

And others have suggested that Johnson misled Parliament by denying for months that parties took place in No 10 - but Downing Street said he had corrected the record "at the earliest possible opportunity".

We reported earlier on the row between two Conservatives - Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt.

Our political editor Chris Mason said Dorries' tweets had "incensed" some MPs - as they felt the messages came with Boris Johnson's endorsement.

But that isn't the uniform view. One Conservative MP has messaged Mason to say, external: "I have known Jeremy Hunt for 20 years and would have supported him during a leadership context.

"But I will definitely not vote for him after attempting to wield the knife on the PM today. Lot of colleagues feel the same way."

Image source, Getty Images

Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi says he will back the prime minister in the confidence vote this evening.

Zahawi supported Boris Johnson in the 2019 leadership contest, and says he hopes tonight's vote "will draw a line against the distractions of the past few months," adding that he hoped his colleagues would join him.

"Nobody gets every decision right, but I think on balance this prime minister has got the big calls right," Zahawi told BBC Radio 4's The World at One.

Speaking about the attack by Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries on former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt for his intention to vote against Johnson tonight, Zahawi said: "I feel sad and heartbroken that colleagues are currently having to attack one another. I think that's wrong. I think we have to come together."

"My plea to everyone is to put this behind us tonight."

He said it would be a "disaster for us to now rid ourselves of a leader who's made the tough calls when it really mattered to this nation".

"To change the prime minister is to destabilise this government when there is war in Europe... to destabilise the government is a recipe for failure and for loss and I'm not in the business of doing that."

Confidence vote a dilemma for Scottish Tory leaderpublished at 14:17 British Summer Time 6 June 2022

14:17 BST 6 June 2022

Glenn Campbell
BBC Scotland Political Editor

Image source, GETTY IMAGES

This vote is a dilemma for the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Douglas Ross, who gets a say as MP for Moray.

Should he keep backing a law-breaking PM that the Scottish party officially blames for heavy losses in the recent local elections?

Or should he abandon Boris Johnson despite having repeatedly said he should continue to lead the UK through the Ukraine crisis?

He faces embarrassment either way and abstaining would probably make him look weaker than the other two options.

Mr Ross has already said the PM should go after the war and would have "little option" but to quit, regardless of the international situation, if a Commons committee finds he knowingly misled Parliament.

He could continue to defer to these scenarios in an effort to be consistent with his most recently expressed position.

Or he could argue that the very fact there's a confidence vote means circumstances have changed again - that perhaps the political stability he seeks is no longer achievable under Boris Johnson.

Mr Ross is expected to set out his decision after he's heard the PM's address to Tory MPs this afternoon.

Read more here.

Ruth Green
Reporting from Redcar

Redcar is traditionally a Labour area that swung to the Conservatives in the 2019 election. It’s a seat that had never before voted Conservative.

Mark Robinson, a greengrocer, says: “I think [Boris Johnson] has been doing a decent job. He made a mistake.

"I think his MPs should back him. He was good enough to win the election. He did do what he said and got us out with Brexit.

"I’d like to think people will give him more of a chance. I think it will be a close-run thing. I think they do like Boris round here.”

However, 22-year-old Nicole Jones isn't as forgiving. “I wouldn’t vote for him. Having parties during lockdown? He’s the prime minister," she says.

"He's [also] the first prime minister to break the law. I’m not impressed and he won’t get my vote.”

Formally known as the Conservative Private Members’ Committee, the 1922 is a group of backbench Tory MPs who meet weekly when the Commons is sitting to discuss party matters.

It then meets monthly with the party leader to discuss opinions within the lower ranks - essentially giving less senior MPs the time and space to get their points of view across.

Many people wrongly assume that the group took its name from a famous meeting of Conservative members at the Carlton Club in October 1922, which led to them successfully calling on the party to withdraw from the coalition government of David Lloyd George.

But it was actually formed in 1923, after the 1922 general election, and was made up of a small group of new MPs who had been elected in 1922 – hence the name. The group was set up to help the new MPs integrate into the party.

Now, it's mostly about giving backbenchers the opportunity to discuss plans for legislative proposals and where Tory MPs can state their confidence - or lack thereof - in the party's leader, as we have seen today.

Lesley Day
Reporting from Glasgow

Over to Glasgow now, where delegates at this year's Royal College of Nursing (RCN) Congress have been speaking to the BBC about the confidence vote.

Karen, an outpatient chemotherapy nurse in the Midlands, said the medical community was "deeply offended" that the PM hadn't had the "decency" to follow his own Covid rules.

"The pressure that we have felt to protect not just ourselves but our families and our patients during Covid... it beggars belief that [Johnson] hasn’t felt the need to follow the same rules," she said, adding the vote was "completely expected".

Ian, a mental health nurse and chair of the East Midlands regional board, echoed Karen's sentiments.

He said Johnson had shown "utter contempt for the NHS for the past two years".

Looking ahead to the possibility of a new PM, Ian, who has been a nurse for 40 years, said he hopes "we will get a leader who will value nurses, nursing and the wider NHS systems".

Navtej Johal
BBC News Midlands correspondent

Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire is historically safe Conservative territory. It was previously Ken Clarke’s seat for nearly 50 years. But there seems to be some disquiet among the "true blue" voters I’ve spoken to today.

Joseph Marks, who’s nearly 85 and has voted Conservative all his life, told me he thought “it was a disgrace” that Boris Johnson broke his own Covid rules. He wanted Tory MPs to vote him out.

But others were more forgiving. Di Reed, 73, wanted the prime minister to remain in charge, saying “he hasn’t been very honest at times, but I’m not sure who would be better to lead the country at the moment”.

And one couple, Brenda Stephens, 69 and Melvyn Mullins, 77, were on the same page. They said the PM still had their vote and had been “upfront”.