Some MPs expect a sizeable rebellion. But will it be enough to remove the PM?published at 13:36 British Summer Time 6 June 2022

13:36 BST 6 June 2022

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

Tonight's vote is a secret ballot.

That matters, because rebels hope some Conservatives will do in private what they can't do in public. They hope members of the government will be among those who vote against the PM.

But how many MPs can they get on side? That's the key calculation they are making.

From those I've spoken to, there is some confidence the PM is facing a sizable rebellion later. Not necessarily enough to lose, but likely enough to show dozens of his MPs don't want him in the top job any more.

Take all numbers with a pinch of salt - including the ones you are about to read. But one well-placed Tory MP, who is making up their mind as we speak, suggested the number could be between 125 and 145.

Another source familiar with how these things work reckons it will be over 100 - and possibly by a fair margin.

Remember, the key number is 180 - that is the majority of Conservative MPs.

In all honesty, we won't know for sure until tonight. Some MPs will be making their minds up in the next few hours. But that's the talk around Parliament this afternoon.

We reported earlier on minister Jacob Rees-Mogg urging Tory MPs to vote in favour of Boris Johnson tonight.

Speaking to the BBC a short while later, he went a step further and suggested that if Johnson wins by only one vote, he will have done enough to save his authority. "One is enough," he said.

In 2018, when Theresa May won around two-thirds of her confidence vote, Rees-Mogg went on to call for her to resign regardless.

Watch as he explains why, in his opinion, the two situations are different.

Earlier, we reported on Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries' stinging criticism of former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt.

Dorries tweeted:

Now, our political editor Chris Mason , externalsays he is hearing the thread "has incensed some MPs and is tempting some to vote against the prime minister - because they feel it comes with his endorsement".

Here's a quick recap this Monday lunchtime, before this evening's vote by Conservative MPs on Boris Johnson's leadership:

• Johnson will address backbench MPs in private at 16:00 BST before the vote taking place between 18:00 and 20:00
• The result will be announced at 21:00 BST

• At least 180 Tory MPs would have to vote against Johnson for him to stand down as party leader and PM
• The vote was triggered after at least 54 Tory MPs sent letters to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 backbenchers committee
• Earlier, the PM wrote to MPs asking for their backing, saying it would "put an end to the media's favourite obsession" and let him "get on with the job"
• Most of the cabinet have declared they will back the prime minister, but other Conservative MPs have urged colleagues to vote against him
• Former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who has been tipped as a possible leadership contender, said he will be voting "for change", external
• Tory MP John Penrose resigned as the government's anti-corruption champion, saying it was clear Johnson had broken the ministerial code in the row about lockdown parties in Downing Street
• Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer called on Tory MPs to "show some leadership" and "get rid" of Johnson

The result of the confidence vote in Prime Minister Boris Johnson's leadership will be announced at precisely 21:00 BST, BBC Political Editor Chris Mason says. , external

Image source, Getty Images

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has not re-submitted his letter of no confidence in the prime minister, BBC Scotland understands.

Boris Johnson will face a vote of confidence in his leadership later, after a number of Conservative MPs said they no longer wanted him to carry on.

However, the Scottish Conservative leader - who previously called for Johnson to go and then rescinded the letter - has not yet backed the move.

The Scottish Secretary, Alister Jack, said the PM had his full support.

Read more here.

Here's some more opposition party reaction - this time from the SNP's Treasury spokesperson.

Alison Thewliss tells BBC Radio Scotland she has this message for the “very quiet” Scottish Tory MPs: "I would encourage them to look to their constituents and try and look to the main issue here, which many Conservative MPs have not been able to get over, is the clear breach of the ministerial code."

Thewliss says Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross’s letter to the 1922 Committee has “been in and out more often than the hokey cokey”.

“I think given the very clear breach of the ministerial code here, this is a matter of trust now. This is a prime minister that cannot be trusted. That is a huge issue for our democracy for our politics, they [Conservative MPs] should think on that.”

Image source, Getty Images

More reaction to today's confidence vote now - this time from former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

In a seven minute-long video he says he "wasn't in the least bit surprised" to see Prime Minister Boris Johnson booed outside Friday's Thanksgiving service for the Queen.

"If they keep Boris Johnson as prime minister, the Conservatives are headed for a 1997-style total disaster. It's all in their hands," he said., external

"He was the right man for 2019, but he's not the right man for now."

In 1997, the Conservatives lost the general election by a huge margin to Tony Blair's Labour Party.

Boris Johnson will not be distracted from the "key issues" facing the UK and the world by tonight's confidence vote, his official spokesman says.

Asked about the resignation of anti-corruption tsar John Penrose, the spokesman insists Johnson disagrees with Penrose's claim that the PM breached the ministerial code during the row about lockdown parties.

And asked about the mixed reception of boos and cheers the PM got at a Jubilee event on Friday, Downing Street says people are free to express their views - and that Johnson gets a "positive response" across the country.

Duncan Kennedy
In Winchester

Winchester is a marginal seat, held by Conservative MP Steve Brine with a majority of 985.

Today, it’s been hard to find anyone who will give Boris Johnson an undiluted show of support. Many use the word "disappointing" when they speak of him, and are unsure about whether he should survive tonight’s vote of confidence.

Take father and son, Paul and Mark Benham, who we ran into in the High Street. They admit they are at “opposite ends of the spectrum” over the prime minister’s future.

The son, Paul, says he no longer has trust in Johnson. “I supported Brexit, but have lost confidence in [him]," Paul said. “It’s not just Partygate… it’s all about trust."

His father, Mark, disagrees. “Partygate was disappointing… [but] it’s a bit of puff," he says. "[Johnson] should stay, as he has... shown so much leadership, particularly on international issues recently."

Image source, Getty Images

Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries has launched an extraordinary attack on her fellow Conservative and widely tipped leadership contender Jeremy Hunt.

Hunt, a former foreign secretary and health secretary, has announced he intends to vote against the prime minister.

Dorries accuses him of telling her the government would "swiftly collapse" after Brexit and he would "swoop in".

"You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now," she says on Twitter, external.

Dorries adds that when she was a health minister, Hunt told her the government should follow the pandemic response of China and other countries, with mandatory two-week stays in quarantine hotels for infected people.

She says he demanded evidence that British people would never accept being forcibly separated from their loved ones. "Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster," she says.

Dorries says his pandemic preparation as health secretary was "found wanting" and accuses him of "duplicity" in "destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition".

Tim Donovan
Reporting from Uxbridge

Usually when we head to Boris Johnson's Uxbridge constituency in west London we are gauging reaction about his judgement. Today it’s about his leadership, and very much about his future.

Strong feelings can be found - as ever - on either side.

There are those who feel he has coped well with a terrible hand dealt to him by the pandemic - and resulting economic hardship.

And there are those who think a clown has outstayed his welcome in a job to which he is unsuited.

One thing apparent at this stage is there’s a far from settled view on a successor, and a fair few can’t think of anyone to replace him.

Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab calls the confidence vote a distraction - but also an opportunity for Boris Johnson to put the controversy over Partygate behind him.

He tells the BBC that Tory MPs should avoid a "period of massive uncertainty" and allow ministers to "get on with the job".

Raab predicts a "very clear" mandate for Johnson to continue - and a "large majority" in his favour - when the ballot is held this evening.

"Every vote will matter," he adds, saying there will be a concerted effort this afternoon to persuade as many MPs as possible to back Johnson.

BBC Radio 5 Live has been getting the views of people across the UK on this evening's confidence vote.

Ali in Stafford says the country needs a leader “who we can be proud of”.

"This current prime minister has led a race to the bottom," he says, “and has made the word ‘honourable’ a joke in the House of Commons."

“There may be many good men [in Parliament], but if they are doing nothing to remove this stain on our nation, then they are as dishonourable as the person who created that environment," he adds.

Mike in Tywyn, Gwynedd, says he finds “all this hoo-har” around Downing Street parties “very concerning and upsetting”.

“On the big issues Boris Johnson has got it dead right,” he says, “on Brexit, on the vaccine rollout, on Ukraine and supporting the country financially. I hope he wins tonight, and I think he will.”

Henry in Reading thinks Boris Johnson is a “liability”.

“He’s the worst representation this country could have internationally. Tonight’s vote is more than leadership, it’s voting for the soul of the country. We’re making a decision - do we want to be led by a liar?

“He cannot be left in charge of this country, it’s an absolute disgrace that he is.”

Earlier, we brought you the news that MP John Penrose - Boris Johnson's anti-corruption champion - had resigned, saying the PM had broken the ministerial code over Partygate and should quit.

Penrose now tells the BBC "you can't reach any other conclusion" after reading Sue Gray's account of Johnson's failures of leadership in her report on the No 10 lockdown gatherings.

He says the PM has achieved many good things but "none of the good things he’s done justify breaking the ministerial code which he himself has said is one of the underpinnings of good government".

Penrose says he wrote his letter yesterday, not knowing there was going to be a confidence vote, and suggests the opposition to Johnson is not co-ordinated.

He suggests MPs "have had to look in the mirror and say 'am I happy with my personal integrity here?'".

They are also receiving emails from constituents which are coming "thick and fast" and are "overwhelmingly negative", he says.

What will Johnson tell Tory MPs today?published at 11:57 British Summer Time 6 June 2022

11:57 BST 6 June 2022

Iain Watson
Political correspondent

Boris Johnson addresses the troops at 16:00 BST today - but what will he say?

• He is expected to reiterate that he has got the "big calls" right

• That it is Labour that wants him gone - so don't give them what they wish for

• That he "gets" the cost of living crisis

• And that he is an election winner - the subtext being, to coin a phrase, "there is no alternative"

One former minister predicted it would be "like watching ITV Three - you will get all the old favourites, but no new programming".

He predicted that Johnson wouldn't persuade his critics suddenly to rally to his side. So what is being done privately to keep MPs loyal?

Not enough, said one: "No 10 was missing in action at the weekend."

Others say whips have been emphasising his election-winning record - but one rebel suggested this was not desperately effective with an apparently huge poll lead for Labour in the forthcoming Wakefield by-election.

The prospect of a reshuffle and ministerial advancement may be a better inducement.

But there is one more factor - a former minister who thinks that the PM has made huge mistakes nonetheless can't think of anyone better to replace him.

And, while Boris Johnson is unpopular now, "he is good at getting himself out of scrapes".

Boris Johnson needs at least 180 Conservative MPs to back him later if he's to survive the vote of confidence in his leadership.

The BBC's political research unit puts the number of party colleagues publicly declaring their support at 73, including most of the cabinet.

But the ballot is secret - and we won't know how much actual backing there is for the prime minister until after voting ends at 20:00 BST.

Andrew Plant
Reporting from Filton and Bradley Stoke

Let's head to Filton and Bradley Stoke, just outside Bristol, which is considered a key battleground in the next general election - whenever it may be.

Recent YouGov data , externalsuggested that if an election were held tomorrow, the Tories would hold on to just three of 88 battleground seats - not including Filton.

Voter Christine Butt praised Boris Johnson’s leadership - but said it was time for him to move on.

“He’s been brilliant. He took us through all the pandemic. But he’s lost the plot now. I’m afraid he needs a rest. Fresh eyes. Fresh blood. See what the next one can do for us," she said.

“My son is self-employed. I don’t know what he would have done in the pandemic if he weren’t furloughed. He [Boris Johnson] was amazing to him. I think he’s been amazing to a lot of people that were in need. People knocked him, but I think he’s done his best. Now he needs a rest. He’s gone through so much. He’s had war and all sorts to contend with.”

Asked who she thought could be next in No 10, Christine said: “I always vote but I don’t know who I would vote for next. I’ve got to look into all that. But it wouldn’t be him.”

Image source, EPA

With supporters of Boris Johnson pointing to his backing for Ukraine as a reason to keep him in office, the PM will likely welcome that President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a statement about their call this morning, external.

Zelensky says he told Johnson about the situation on the front and received confirmation of "a new enhanced defence support package" from the UK - three M270 multiple-launch rocket systems, the BBC understands.

The Ukrainian president says he raised the issue of "intensifying work on security guarantees" and they discussed "ways to avoid the food crisis" caused by the blockade on the country's ports.

Image source, Reuters

The Attorney General of England and Wales and cabinet minister, Suella Braverman, has urged her Tory colleagues to consider the bigger "perspective" as they prepare to vote tonight.

She told BBC Radio 4's Woman's Hour that Johnson should remain in post - and his record on Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and his "historic majority" in the 2019 election, showed he was a "very successful" prime minister.

Challenged on Covid law-breaking and the PM receiving a fine, she said the outcome of the police probe and the Sue Gray report was "disappointing and frustrating" but that Johnson had "apologised fully, taken responsibility and made changes".