Tone of Tory campaign has shiftedpublished at 09:32 British Summer Time 12 June

09:32 BST 12 June

Harry Farley
Political correspondent

Rishi Sunak is heading to North East Lincolnshire this morning as he takes his newly minted manifesto on the road.

I’m at Euston station in London, hastily downing a coffee as I type while we wait for our train (Rishi Sunak is travelling separately).

What I’m struck by is that there isn’t a huge sense of excitement from the Conservative campaign today, particularly given it’s the day after their manifesto launch.

Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, was touring the broadcast studios this morning warning against giving Sir Keir Starmer “unchecked” power.

“You don’t want to have somebody receive a super-majority,” he said.

The tone and feel from this Tory campaign has shifted. They are not quite saying so in as many words, but they’re almost admitting Starmer will be prime minister. The only thing they’re questioning is how big his majority will be.

Image source, PA Media

We can bring you a bit more now from Grant Shapps' interview with Times Radio, where he discussed what would happen if Labour won a large majority on 4 July.

"A blank-cheque approach, allowing someone to do anything they wanted, particularly when their particular set of plans are so vague...

"They say 'change', but you have no idea what they actually want to change to, other than the fact that they've outlined plans which would cost £2,094 to every working family in this country."

• For context: BBC Verify analysed the £2,094 claim, and says it risks misleading people

Grant Shapps says Tories worried about Labour supermajoritypublished at 09:07 British Summer Time 12 June

09:07 BST 12 June

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

There are only two men who realistically can enter Downing Street on the morning after the general election: Rishi Sunak or Sir Keir Starmer.

Listen to the Conservatives’ messaging today, though, and you could be forgiven for thinking that there is only one possibility -– Labour victory.

At least that’s what is being signalled by Grant Shapps, the defence secretary.

In an interview with Times Radio this morning, Shapps made the obligatory vow to “fight for every single seat in this country”. And yes, he stressed that “the polls have been wrong before” and that “no-one’s cast a vote”.

But beyond those caveats, Shapps focused on warning not only of the possibility of a Labour victory, but of a large one.

“You want to make sure that in this next government, whoever forms it, there’s a proper system of accountability,” he said.

“You don’t want to have somebody receive a super-majority. And in this case, of course, the concern would be that if Keir Starmer were to go into No 10… and that power was in some way unchecked, it would be very bad news for people in this country”.

Pressed on whether he was effectively conceding defeat with more than three weeks to go until polling day, Shapps said: “I think it’s perfectly legitimate to say the country doesn’t function well when you get majorities the size of [Sir Tony] Blair’s or even bigger.

"And we would say there are a lot of very good, hardworking MPs who can hold the government of the day to account. And we’d say those are Conservative MPs.”

Just reflect on those last two sentences. Shapps is not arguing, there, that people should vote Conservative in order to implement tax cuts, or reduce immigration, or any of the other offers at the centre of the Conservative manifesto.

He is arguing that people should vote Conservative in order to hold a Labour government to account.

More now from Ramsay, who tells BBC Breakfast that the Greens want to keep the government's target to ban new petrol and diesel car sales by 2035.

He says in the meantime, the party want to ensure better public transport and electric vehicle infrastructure.

He admits he drives a hybrid car because he couldn't access a charging point where he lives.

Asked about if the Greens would restrict the number of flights, he says no.

But he says the party will tax frequent flyers – people who take a multiple flights a year.

"The reason for that is the vast majority of flights are taken by just 15% of the population - again the very richest causing the most emissions."

He says it has been "many years" since he got on a plane.

Some more now from Ramsay on the Green Party's tax plans, which would increase National Insurance to 8% on annual wages above £50,270.

Ramsay says for those on middle incomes – earning more than £55,000 per year – the rise planned by the Greens will see them pay £5 a week more.

Speaking from Hove, he says this is a "modest increase" but that everyone will benefit in the transition to a "greener and fairer future".

More taxes are needed to make more public services free at point of use, says Ramsay, adding that the Greens are the only party being honest about tax rises.

Let's hear more from the Green Party now, as co-leader Adrian Ramsay continues his media round – this time speaking to BBC Breakfast.

He's asked how he is going to make voters trust the Greens, following the results of Sir John Curtice's analysis.

"People have lost trust in politics," Ramsay answers, because of "scandals of recent years".

"People are looking for parties to be honest with them," he adds.

More now from O'Donnell.

He says social media is a big part of current disillusion in politics.

"It is confirmation bias," he says.

"People follow people who have similar views to them."

"Nobody really confronts this issue," O'Donnell says, adding he believes it is important to "listen to people disagree" with your views.

As a reminder, you can read more about the report here.

Lord Gus O'Donnell, former head of the civil service, tells BBC Radio 4's programme that trust in politicians to tell the truth is at the "lowest we have seen for a very long time".

"We have in government an absence of honesty and integrity and that matters," O'Donnell says.

He adds improving public services will require reform and more resources, but politicians needed to "treat the public as grown ups".

Going forward, he says he hopes for a prime minister that wants to rebuild trust in politics.

Image source, Getty Images

We can bring you more from Sir John Curtice now, who has been talking through the specifics of his report – which we shared in a previous post – with BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

Curtice says 45% of those polled "almost never" trust the government to put the interests of the country before the party, and 58% saying they "almost never" trust politicians to tell the truth.

He says a "significant proportion" of voters are now disillusioned with politics – seemingly more than ever before.

The resolution of Brexit restored the trust and confidence of Leave voters to some extent, he adds, but now they are as sceptical as Remain voters.

On taxation, Curtice says a low-level proportion of people think taxes and spending should rise, but that given the scale of increase in the size of the state, there's been a "muted" response from the public.

Image source, Getty Images

Some news just in - South Yorkshire Police say Josh Greally, 28, has been charged with using threatening behaviour towards Nigel Farage.

It comes after objects were thrown at the Reform UK leader while he was campaigning on an open-top bus in Barnsley yesterday.

Image source, Reuters

While we listen to John Curtice on the Today programme, we've just had these lines from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on today's monthly GDP figures, which show no growth in April.

Hunt highlights longer-term trends in the data, saying: "Today’s figures show our economy grew by 0.7% in the three months to April.

"There is more to do, but the economy is turning a corner and inflation is back down to normal. This election is choice.

“Under the Conservatives, we can keep the economy growing with our clear plan to cut taxes on work, homes and pensions, or we can risk all that progress with Labour’s £2,094 of tax rises on every working family."

As a reminder, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves earlier said today's figures "expose the damage done after fourteen years of Conservative chaos".

Emily Atkinson
Live reporter

Shortly, BBC election guru Professor Sir John Curtice and former head of the civil service Lord Gus O'Donnell will appear on BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The pair will be talking about voter disillusionment, after Curtice's own analysis found trust and confidence in the UK’s politics and election system has never been worse.

We'll bring you the key lines on this page – and you can read more on the analysis here.

Image source, NEIL HALL/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

ITV will this evening broadcast its interview with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak - which was recorded after he returned from D-Day commemorations early, which he then apologised for.

We've been given some quotes from the interview before it goes out.

• Asked if had to go without things as a child, he says "we went without lots of things, because my parents wanted to put everything into our education"
• Pushed for an example he adds: "Famously, Sky TV - so that was something that we never had growing up"
• Asked about Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, Sunak says he respects him and he is right to highlight migration as an issue - but stresses that "one of two people is going to be prime minister on 5 July"
• On education, Sunak says he's proud of the progress made by Conservative governments, with reforms benefiting those from disadvantaged backgrounds
• And on social care and the NHS, it will take time to recover from the pandemic but more money is going into the sector "than ever before"

The full interview is going to be on ITV at 19:00.

Andrew Kerr
BBC Scotland political correspondent

Image source, PA Media

It’s the morning after the night before on the campaign trail in Scotland, following the big leaders’ debate.

The BBC Scotland Debate Night special was shown live, with the five main party leaders taking questions from a selected audience.

The SNP’s John Swinney had a particular theme that he stuck to throughout the programme.

It’s a familiar issue for the SNP in this campaign - that Labour and the Conservatives are keeping £18bn of public sector spending cuts up their sleeves.

Swinney says the figures are from the Independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar denied that in the debate - at one point saying: “Read my lips. No austerity under Labour.”

Well, the SNP will attempt to keep the theme going today on a campaign visit in Edinburgh.

Swinney will meet with local candidates and lay down what he’s calling a “cast-iron guarantee” that SNP MPs will protect Scotland’s values in the face of “further spending cuts at Westminster”.

Earlier this morning, we had the latest official snapshot of the how the UK economy has been performing.

Overall the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says GDP stayed flat in April with no growth - partly because of the wet weather.

Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves says: "Rishi Sunak claims we have turned a corner, but the economy has stalled and there is no growth.

“These figures expose the damage done after fourteen years of Conservative chaos."

Meanwhile Liberal Democrats' Sarah Olney said the lack of growth showed the Tories had "utterly failed" to deliver on their promises.

We are yet to hear from the Tory government - we will bring you their responses as soon as we get them.

Image source, .

On the wealth tax proposal, Ramsay says this will raise £15bn a year by the end of the next Parliament (although a Green Party document, external puts this at £16bn).

It asks the "very richest in society" to pay "modestly more" in tax - those with over £10m in assets paying 1% and 2% for those with assets over £1bn.

Asked if some may leave the country, he says it's assumed a "small number will leave" but most will not, as they're tied to this country.

It's about asking those with "broader shoulders" to "pay a bit more", Ramsay adds.

Labour and the Tories have a "conspiracy of silence" over taxes while Greens are being honest, claims Ramsay.

He says getting more Green MPs will press the next government to "be bolder on the action needed".

And that's the end of the Today programme interview.

Ramsay is now asked about the Greens' plan for the NHS - his party is promising an extra £50bn a year for the health service.

"We're the party that's being honest in this election about the investment that's needed if we're going to tackle the fact our NHS is severely overstretched," he says.

And - further to the tax rises we mentioned earlier - he insists the Greens' manifesto is "fully-costed".

Co-leader of the Greens, Adrian Ramsay, is first asked about an antisemitism row which engulfed the party after the local elections last month.

Ramsay tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme "there are 574 candidates we are standing and out of that huge number there are now four no longer going forward".

Host Justin Webb lists a couple of candidates and their alleged antisemitic social media posts - Ramsay says he doesn't recognise the specific candidates.

But Ramsay says the Greens will take action if complaints are raised - adding the party has an independent process and relevant sanctions in place.

Emily Atkinson
Live reporter

As regular readers will know, our early mornings are usually dominated by the "media round" of interviews.

Later today, the Greens will launch their manifesto - so co-leader Adrian Ramsay is giving interviews on both BBC Breakfast and BBC Radio 4's Today programme, with the latter about to begin.

We're also expecting to hear from BBC election guru Professor Sir John Curtice and former head of the civil service Lord Gus O'Donnell, so stay tuned for all of that and updates from the campaign trail.

As a reminder, you can also watch a live stream of our election coverage by clicking the Play button at the top of this page.

Jack Fenwick
Political reporter

On Wednesday night in Leeds, the Social Democratic Party launched its manifesto.

Leader William Clouston - who describes himself as "the softest spoken politician in the country" - told those present that "we’ve been away a while and it’s lovely to be back".

The 36-page manifesto, titled "Homecoming", promises to put "family, neighbourhood and nation" front and centre.

Clouston spoke about the "epidemic of family breakdown" and said "a British 16-year-old is more likely to have a screen in their room than a father in the house".

He said his party’s headline plan - to allow a full sharing of tax allowances between couples raising children - would mean they "wouldn’t pay any tax for the first £25,000".

He described the Conservative and Labour dominance of Westminster politics as an "awful duopoly" and said his aim was to “give people something decent to vote for”.

"We’ve become a very fractious and divided society," he said. "Some get rich and some get hungry. It’s unacceptable."

Other themes of the launch and the manifesto included reindustrialisation and renationalisation.

Image source, SDP