James FitzGerald
Live reporter

More than 24 hours after a plane linked to Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin came down in Russia, there remain plenty of questions.

What caused the crash? And do we even know for sure that Prigozhin was on board? The US says it's "likely" he was - but when he finally spoke about the crash - some 24 hours later - Russian President Vladimir Putin chose his words carefully.

The post below tells you what we do know. We're pausing our live coverage - for now, at least.

• Our new report, leading on Putin's comments, is here
• Or head here for a look at what next for the Wagner group
• And don't forget to watch Ros Atkins's video on the possible causes of the crash

My thanks to all my colleagues in London and Singapore who've kept this coverage rolling for more than 24 hours.

Image source, EPA

It's more than a day after a private jet crashed near Moscow - killing ten people, who reportedly included Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Information is still emerging - but here are the key things we do know.

1. Prigozhin was "likely" killed

US officials are among those who think it's "likely" the Wagner leader was on board the crashed plane. But there's still been no explicit confirmation of this, as you'll see from our earlier post analysing the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin. We know that Prigozhin was on the passenger list that was released by Russian air officials soon after the incident.

2. An explosion possibly caused the crash

Various theories have emerged as to what brought the plane down. It has been reported that a surface-to-air missile may have struck the plane, but the Pentagon has said it has no indication that one was used. A US official has told the BBC’s US partner network CBS that an explosion on board was a more probable cause - and that it was possible a bomb went off.

3. The blame game continues

Fingers have been pointed at members of the Russian leadership, thought there is no proof that any of them were involved. Breaking his silence on the incident, Putin called it a “tragedy” and reiterated that an investigation was under way. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country had nothing to do with the crash.

4. The circumstances of the crash

We know that the aircraft - an Embraer-135 (EBM-135BJ) - was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg on Wednesday. It had seven passengers and three crew, according to Russia's aviation authority. The plane come down near the village of Kuzhenkino, about halfway between Moscow and St Petersburg. All 10 people on board were killed.

Here's another of today's important developments relating to the Ukraine war.

The US has announced it is sanctioning 11 individuals and two organisations over the alleged forced transfer and deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children.

The US ambassador to the UN said the White House would also seek to impose visa restrictions on three Russia-installed “authorities”.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield also said the US was aware of reports that hundreds of children have been moved from Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine to Belarus in the past year.

• Read more about the deportation of Ukrainian children here

Newsnight

Although this live coverage will wrap up soon, audiences in the UK can tune into Newsnight for more on this story.

Ukraine's deputy minister of defence has told the programme that the Wagner mercenary group will struggle without the leadership of Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The group has been instrumental in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but was split up following the failed rebellion in June - with fighters told they could either join the regular army or go to Belarus.

Volodymyr Havrylov also told Newsnight that Prigozhin was a “very symbolic, charismatic leader”, who his fighters – many of whom were recruited from prisons – “really accepted”.

He says without Prigozhin, Wagner’s fighters will lose confidence and morale, especially in the lower ranks. He adds: “They don't understand what to do next.”

Watch Newsnight on BBC Two from 22:30 BST

Frank Gardner
BBC News, Security Correspondent

Image source, EPA

The violent demise of Yevgeny Prigozhin, if confirmed, will not be mourned in Kyiv. Nor in Aleppo. Nor in a village in Mali where human rights groups allege Wagner troops carried out a massacre of hundreds of civilians.

Eight years since Wagner was founded, the mercenary group has earned itself a fearsome reputation for brutality both on and off the battlefield.

• In Ukraine, where its troops became perhaps Russia’s most effective fighting force, they stand accused of several atrocities amounting to war crimes
• In Syria, they acted in support of the autocratic President Bashar Al-Assad - who is in turn accused of torturing and killing thousands of his opponents
• And in Africa, where Wagner were ostensibly fighting jihadist insurgents, the group has grown rich from lucrative deals with undemocratic governments

In the short term, Wagner now lack both leadership and direction. But they have proved themselves over time to be a valuable tool for the Kremlin, a weapon which Moscow will want to see replicated before it is lost.

Sean Seddon
BBC News

Image source, Grey Zone/Telegram

Rustam Karimov - mentioned below - was one of ten people reported to have been on board a plane in Russia that crashed yesterday. Flight details released by Russian authorities state that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was among the others.

They are said to have been joined by Dmitry Utkin, who is believed to have given the mercenary group its name.

The 63-year-old is thought to have been involved in the private army since its early days in 2014, though his exact role is disputed.

In his last known remarks - made to Wagner troops in Belarus in June and reported by a pro-Wagner social media channel - he seemed to confirm that the group was named after the call sign he used on the battlefield.

Click here for more on what we know about the group that were purportedly on board the plane.

A woman who's identified herself as the widow of the crashed plane's co-pilot has written about her grief.

"I don't know how I can handle it," the wife of Rustam Karimov earlier wrote on social media.

"It has never been so hard; it feels like I'm just a body without emotions, feelings, without the desire of any," she added, in remarks that were reported by our colleagues at BBC Russian.

Image source, Reuters

Someone pointing the finger of blame at the Russian leadership is jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

He says President Vladimir Putin has turned Yevgeny Prigozhin - and the other Wagner fighters who are thought to have died in Wednesday’s plane crash - into "martyrs".

In a new blog post, external, Navalny – who recently had his jail term extended to nearly 19 years – says Prigozhin is a hero in the eyes of Wagner supporters. He says Putin could not stomach this.

“The traitor and coward is Putin in his Kremlin who envies the popularity of these Russian heroes in the people's eyes and the army and hates them for it,” writes Navalny. “So he gave the vile order to kill them.”

Navalny - who survived a poisoning in 2020 - warns that “these are the ingredients used to create the dish called ‘civil war’.”

It's worth us reiterating that there's been no confirmation of what caused the plane to crash - an incident labelled by Putin as a "tragedy" that's under investigation.

A US official has said it seems “very unlikely” Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile - a view that's consistent with what we just heard in the Pentagon briefing.

The official told the BBC's American partner network CBS that an explosion on board the aircraft was the more probable cause of Wednesday's crash.

They added that the cause of that explosion was not yet known, but a bomb was one possibility.

Image source, Reuters

The plane presumed to have been carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin may have fallen out of the sky by accident, but it's "much more likely" to have been brought down deliberately, explains the BBC's Analysis Editor Ros Atkins.

Watch as Ros examines the four possible causes of yesterday's incident in his latest video.

For their part, US officials in the Pentagon have now said they heave no information to suggest a surface-to-air missile was responsible.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that an investigation was under way, which he warned would take "some time".

Image source, Getty Images

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder did not given a full operational update on Ukraine during his briefing a short time ago. But he did say that Ukraine was continuing to “get after it” and pursue its counter-offensive against Russian invaders.

He said the Ukrainians were making some progress along the front line but that their mission remained tough for various reasons, including the need to navigate minefields.

“Our focus is going to be on consulting with them and ensuring they have what they need to be successful”, he said.

• See the latest developments in the war mapped here

Image source, Getty Images

Patrick Ryder just said at the Pentagon briefing that there was no information to indicate a surface-to-air missile brought down Prigozhin's plane - contrary to earlier reports by some outlets.

But what exactly are the missiles under discussion?

Often abbreviated to SAM, a surface-to-air missile is designed to be launched from the ground to destroy aircraft, among other objects.

It can be fired from land or sea towards other missiles or even aircraft.

Brig Gen Ryder is asked by a reporter what to expect next for the mercenary group's leadership.

"I'd refer you to the Wagner group, if you're able to get in touch with them, for any questions on what their current business model and path forward is," he replies.

"We've seen the Russian government, shortly after the events near Moscow two months ago, say to some of these members: 'Sign a contract with the ministry of defence.'

"We're aware that some members of Wagner left and others stayed, but, as it relates to the future of this company, this mercenary company, I really don't have anything to provide," he adds.

Image source, Reuters

The Pentagon says English-language training for Ukrainians on how to operate F-16 fighter jets will begin in Texas in September. Flight training is expected to begin the following month in Arizona.

Spokesman Brig Gen Pat Ryder says the Pentagon does not currently know exactly how many Ukrainians will be taking part in this training, but that it's thought that several pilots and dozens of maintenance workers will be included.

His comments come as a coalition of other Western allies prepare to start training Ukrainians later this month.

Ryder says the US training will “complement” this training and the US will remain in “close consultation” with its European allies about the requirements for F-16 pilots.

The American decision earlier this year to supply Ukraine with F-16 jets represented an about-turn.

This is because the US and its allies - who had earlier ruled out the move - had feared this would lead to further escalation with a nuclear-armed Russia.

Brig Gen Ryder has just been asked repeatedly about the Pentagon's capabilities to track movements of the Wagner paramilitary group.

He says he is not in a position to comment on US intelligence.

But he does stress to reporters in the briefing room that Wagner is a much greater threat than Prigozhin alone.

Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

More now from Brig Gen Patrick Ryder, who's asked "what next" for the Wagner group.

He's also asked about the repercussions Prigozhin's reported death could have on the war in Ukraine.

Ryder says Wagner is "no longer" in the battlefield in Ukraine, following its short-lived mutiny against the Russian military leadership in June.

He explains that the mercenary group's troops were Russia's "most effective forces on the battlefield", but their influence is now greatly diminished.

Ryder adds that many Wagner members are now in Belarus, providing training to Belarusian troops.

A pact with Belarus was one of the key conditions after Wagner's failed uprising two months ago.

US Defense Department spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder is now addressing members of the media at a Pentagon briefing.

Asked about the Wagner leader, Gen Ryder says that the initial assessment from the Pentagon is that Yevgeny Prigozhin was "likely killed" in the plane crash.

He says there is no information to indicate that a surface-to-air missile brought down the plane and will not be drawn on what other reason could have caused the crash.

Today is Ukraine's Independence Day, and crowds around the world have been marking the occasion.

It's 32 years since Ukraine declared independence from the Soviet Union. Here are some of the pictures we've been seeing from different countries:

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You can now listen to tonight's episode of Ukrainecast on BBC Sounds. The team has been speaking to the man who calls himself the number one enemy of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

American-born British financier Bill Browder tells our chief international correspondent Lyse Doucet and BBC Monitoring's Russia editor Vitaly Shevchenko that the presumed death of Yevgeny Prigozhin is "the beginning of the purge".

He says Prigozhin’s decision to fly on a private aircraft in Russia was "reckless", and also describes the security precautions he takes himself as a marked man.

A reminder that the BBC has not verified that Prigozhin was on board the plane. And it remains unclear why the vehicle crashed.

A short while ago, we heard Russian President Vladimir Putin hail the "talented businessman" Yevgeny Prigozhin, who's presumed to have died in yesterday's plane crash.

Members of the Russian public have been adding their own contributions to memorials created in memory of Prigozhin and his associates outside Wagner offices.

Image source, EPA

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