Matt Murphy
BBC News

Image source, Getty Images

Yevgeny Prigozhin spent almost a decade building the Wagner paramilitary group.

It became central to Russia's war effort in Ukraine and Prigozhin's troops helped to spread Russian influence across the globe, propping up allies of President Vladimir Putin in Africa and Syria.

Now his death has sparked a flurry of speculation about the group's future.

Western security officials are wondering who will take his place and what will happen to the mercenaries he once led.

Who will run Wagner now? Read on here.

More now on the plane that crashed near Moscow yesterday evening, which Russian aviation officials say was carrying Yevgeny Progozhin.

Prigozhin's aircraft - an Embraer-135 (EBM-135BJ Legacy 600) - was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg with seven passengers and three crew, Russia's Rosaviatsia aviation authority said.

Embraer, the Brazilian aerospace company that designed the jet, says its support service for the Legacy 600 aircraft has been suspended since 2019, in line with sanctions against Russia.

In a statement, Embraer says it is "aware of the accident that occurred with a Legacy 600 in Russia", but has no further information about the case.

"The company has complied and continues to comply with international sanctions imposed on Russia," it adds.

Katy Austin
Business Correspondent

Image source, Reuters

It would be an understatement to say experts I’ve spoken to today would be surprised if this crash was an accident.

The Embraer Legacy is a business jet version of an aircraft originally launched in 2000 as a small jet for commuter airlines. It can carry up to 13 passengers in a business jet layout, many more if its cabin is modified as a commuter carrier.

David Learmount, an aviation expert, says it was “a good aircraft from a good manufacturer”.

He points out the video of the aircraft falling to the ground, apparently out of control, shows white smoke or vapour. He says “there must have been some damage to explain [it]”.

He adds “modern airliners do not just fall out of the sky like that”.

Aviation consultant John Strickland agrees it would be “extremely unusual and rare for an aircraft to fall from the sky after a normal departure as this appears to have made”. He described Embraer as having an “excellent safety record.”

While speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Zelensky goes on to make a veiled joke regarding Ukraine's appeal to other nations for more planes to fight the Russian invasion.

"When Ukraine appealed to the countries of the world regarding planes, we did not mean this," he says.

"But this in some way will definitely help," he adds.

He was emphatic about Kyiv having anything to do with Prigozhin's reported death.

Ukraine was not involved in the reported death of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, President Volodymyr Zelensky says.

"We are not involved in this situation, that's for sure. I think everyone is aware of who is involved," Zelensky tells journalists in Kyiv.

Frank Gardner
Security Correspondent

Even before yesterday’s plane crash the future of Wagner and its operations in Africa were in doubt.

Sources close to the group say there were plans afoot, led by the deputy director of Russia’s GRU military intelligence unit, to replace much of Wagner with a parallel mercenary group.

Prigozhin was said to be furiously resisting this and rushed back from Mali to Russia to try to forestall it.

The headache for the Kremlin now is what to do with the 25,000 Wagner fighters, scattered across several countries, most of whom saw their loyalty as being to Prigozhin, Wagner and Mother Russia, rather than to Moscow’s much derided defence ministry.

Ukrainian forces conducted a successful operation in Crimea today, according to a Telegram post, external by Kyiv’s intelligence directorate.

The “special operation” was conducted alongside the Ukrainian navy, with the message saying “the enemy (Russia) suffered losses among personnel, enemy equipment was destroyed.”

It went on to add that the “state flag flew again in the Ukrainian Crimea.”

The Ukrainian forces reportedly suffered no casualties.

Crimea has been occupied by Russian forces since 2014.

Image source, Reuters

Here's what you need to know if you're just joining us on this story:

• Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is presumed to have been killed in a plane crash north of Moscow, alongside his right-hand-man Dmitry Utkin and eight others
• The aircraft, owned by Prigozhin, had seven passengers and three crew on board when it crashed in the Tver region. All 10 bodies have been recovered, reports say
• UK defence sources say that Russia’s FSB domestic intelligence agency (the successors to the KGB) are those most likely to have targeted Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane

• The Kremlin has not commented on Prigozhin's death. Putin, who has been speaking at the Brics summit in South Africa, stuck to the script and mentioned nothing about the crash

• Wagner members and supporters across Russia are paying tribute to Prigozhin, laying flowers at temporary shrines to the Wagner chief

James Waterhouse
Ukraine correspondent

The apparent death of Yevgeny Prigozhin feels like the spotlight is less on Ukraine during this year’s Independence Day.

The news is being privately welcomed, but the collapse of the Russian regime was a hoped for way out of this war here - should a military victory not materialise for Ukraine.

The relentless attrition of the front line is rarely affected by events closer to Moscow.

Once again here in Kyiv, damaged Russian tanks line Khreschatyk - the city’s main street. It is a celebration of both Kyiv’s survival and continued defence against Russia’s full scale invasion.

It’s also seen as an opportunity to boost the country’s morale.

Frank Gardner
Security Correspondent

There is no proof yet provided by either the Russians or the Wagner group that Yevgeny Prigozhin is dead or that his body has been identified - but it's certainly the assumption.

If this was a deliberate targeting, and that is certainly the belief held by most people, it would be the FSB intelligence agency in Russia (the successors to the Soviet KGB) that has done it.

Vladimir Putin, of course, spent much of his early career working for the KGB. He has a loyal following in the FSB, whereas some elements of the military are more sympathetic to Prigozhin.

The FSB's loyalty is not in question. There is a track record here.

The FSB, for example, allegedly poisoned Alexey Navalny in Siberia in August 2020, when they are said to have used Novichok nerve agent to sabotage his underwear in his hotel.

Now that may sound amusing, but Novichok is such a powerful nerve agent that Navalny became very, very unwell.

He was taken seriously ill on an internal flight from Tomsk to Omsk, and only just survived after being rushed off the plane to hospital.

Image source, Reuters

Whatever the cause of the plane crash, people will see it as "an act of retaliation and retribution", according to Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.

"And the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view," she says, adding that there is good reason to believe that Putin was involved in such a crash.

"A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation," Stanovaya says.

"Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him until the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests."

The Kremlin has not yet commented on the crash.

France has said there are "reasonable doubts" about the cause of the plane crash that presumably killed Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"We don't yet know the circumstances of this crash. We can have some reasonable doubts," government spokesman Olivier Veran told France 2 television, AFP reported.

He added that the Wagner chief was "the man who did Putin's dirty work. What he has done is inseparable from the policies of Putin, who gave him responsibility to carry out abuses as the head of Wagner."

"Prigozhin leaves behind him mass graves,” he said, referring to the Wagner group's human rights violations across Africa, Syria and Ukraine.

Wagner fighters and supporters have been paying tribute to Yevgeny Prigozhin at makeshift memorials in Russia.

Candles have been lit and flowers laid next to photos of the mercenary leader outside Wagner's offices in St Petersburg and Novosibirsk.

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Vitaliy Shevchenko
BBC Monitoring

Grey Zone, a Wagner-linked account on Telegram, speculated that Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane had been downed by Russia’s air defences.

Grey Zone remains the only key account linked to the military group which has so far claimed that Prigozhin is dead.

In a post yesterday evening, it said the Wagner boss “died as a result of actions by traitors of Russia”.

Roman Saponkov, a war reporter thought to be linked to Wagner, also argued that the group’s chief had been assassinated.

"Prigozhin’s killing will have catastrophic consequences. People who gave the order completely fail to understand the mood and morale in the army,” he said.

DShRG Rusich, a popular pro-war account, suggested that Prigozhin had been killed because he ended his mutiny in June without reaching Moscow.

“Let this be a lesson for everyone. You need to go all the way,” it said.

Image source, Reuters

What happened to the plane?

Russian officials confirmed that the Embraer Legacy aircraft had been flying between Moscow and St Petersburg when it crashed in the Tver region, north of Moscow, on Wednesday evening. A Wagner affiliated Telegram group claims it was shot down.

Who was on board?

The private plane was carrying seven passengers and three crew. Russian officials identified all the passengers, including Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin.

What do we know about Prigozhin’s recent movements?

Prigozhin has kept a low profile since his Wagner group’s failed insurrection in June. He appeared to briefly be in Belarus following the mutiny, and was later photographed in St Petersburg. Last week, he released his first video statement since June, suggesting he was in Africa.

What happens now?

Emergency services have finished combing the crash site, and Russia has launched a criminal investigation into the crash.

• Read the full article here

Putin bids to prop up Russian ambitions in Africapublished at 10:35 British Summer Time 24 August 2023

10:35 BST 24 August 2023

Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor

In Putin's second video contribution to the Brics summit, his big focus was on Africa, going back to his mantra that Russia helps Africa's neediest countries, while the West merely pumps resources out of them in some kind of modern form of revamped colonialism.

He reminded his audience of Russia's offer of 25-50,000 tonnes of free grain supplies to six African nations, including Mali, Zimbabwe and Central African Republic.

It's all part of a bid to prop up Russian ambitions on the continent, when the war in Ukraine is pushing African leaders away. Only 17 African heads of state took part in last month's Russia-Africa summit, down from 43 only four years before.

But another key element of Putin's Africa policy is the thousands of Wagner mercenaries embedded in a number of African states. Wagner is widely accused of plundering those countries for their mineral wealth, so it is a bit rich to complain of Western colonialism.

An adviser to Ukraine's defence minister says that Yevgeny Prigozhin's reported death is good news for Ukraine.

"One less terrorist means more instability in Russia. It's again another sign of Russia becoming a failed state which is run by a terrorist who is afraid of his own people," Yuri Sak told Radio 4's Today programme earlier.

"And from where we see it, whatever makes Russia weak makes us stronger.”

Vladimir Putin is addressing the Brics summit in South Africa via video link for the second time today.

We're listening in and will bring you the key lines from what he says.

Frank Gardner
Security correspondent

Image source, Reuters

UK defence sources say that Russia’s FSB domestic intelligence agency (the successors to the KGB) are those most likely to have targeted Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane.

They are totally loyal to Vladimir Putin and also run the border force.

The view is that this now probably strengthens the position of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, whom Prigozhin loathed and publicly criticised.

This in turn is good for Ukraine as those two are considered incompetent.