South African President Jacob Zuma is speaking live on the national broadcaster, SABC, right now:

Andrew Harding
BBC News, Johannesburg

The timing is remarkable. Why did South Africa’s elite Hawks choose today to move against the Guptas?

The first possibility is that this was a genuine coincidence. The Hawks have, in recent weeks, begun to accelerate their investigation into alleged corruption at the Estina Dairy, with assets already seized, and prosecutions prepared, so perhaps, given the unpredictable way the political drama surrounding President Jacob Zuma is unfolding, this is just one of those serendipitous things.

The second possibility is that the Hawks - with an eye on the news and the clear sense that President Zuma is losing power, and therefore any protection that the Guptas enjoyed as his friends is waning too - decided there was a risk that members of the wealthy Indian-born family might flee the country.

Image source, South African Government

The third option is that the man who presumably authorised the move against the Guptas - chief prosecutor Sean Abrahams - saw the way the tide was turning against Mr Zuma (who appointed him) and decided it would be wise to accelerate the investigation.

Mr Abrahams has been branded “Sean The Sheep” by South African media, following widespread claims that he has helped to protect Mr Zuma, the Guptas and others from corruption investigations.

Mr Abrahams might be looking to curry favour with any new ANC-led administration.

The fourth theory is that Cyril Ramaphosa, or those close to him, somehow influenced the police into launching the move against the Guptas this morning in a deliberate attempt to put added pressure on President Zuma to step down.

His son, Duduzane, works for the Guptas and is being talked of as a possible target of the investigations.

This would be an illegal move, but one that many South Africans now see as entirely possible, given the apparent politicisation of the justice system and the erosion of key institutions during the Zuma era.

Image source, EPA

Questions over the Gupta family's association with a controversial dairy farm were first reported in 2013 by South Africa's Mail and Guardian newspaper, external.

The article alleges that there was a "huge redirection of resources" to the Gupta family.

It said the agriculture department in Free State province, which was due to fund the project, handed the farm to a company called Estina under a 99-year rent-free lease.

But the Mail and Guardian said at the time "the new information strongly suggests that the Guptas, who are close to Free State premier Ace Magashule and employ his son, have played an active behind-the-scenes role in the dairy project."

The Gupta family has always denied any wrongdoing.

Today journalists have been praising the newspaper for its investigation:

Image source, EPA

South Africa's main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), has welcomed the police raid on the compound of the wealthy Gupta family, which is accused of wielding undue influence in government and acquiring some state contracts illegally.

The DA said the investigation should go further to cover government ministers allegedly implicated in corrupt deals with the family.

In a statement, the party added:

Government ministers and the family have repeatedly denied wrongdoing.

Image source, AFP

In terms of South Africa's constitution, a simple parliamentary majority is needed to pass a no-confidence vote in President Jacob Zuma.

The governing ANC has a majority of more than 60% so the motion is likely to succeed.

It will automatically trigger the collapse of the government, forcing the resignation of the entire cabinet.

The parliamentary speaker will then serve as acting president until parliament elects a new president - expected to be Mr Zuma's deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa.

The ANC hopes to do all of this on Thursday and Friday, if Mr Zuma, in power since 2009, defies its order to resign by then.

Read: The controversial and divisive Zuma

Image source, Getty Images

Former Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas made a public allegation in 2016 that he was offered 600m Rand ($50m; £36m) by the Gupta family to be the next finance minister - as long as he did their bidding.

It was followed by a damning report by a South African government ombudsman that accused the Guptas and President Zuma of colluding to win government contracts.

The public backlash worsened in 2017 when more than 100,000 emails were leaked which appeared to show the extent the family had exerted their influence.

It suggested a complex web of government contracts, as well as alleged kickbacks and money laundering.

It prompted marches and public protests against the family and President Zuma, dubbed the "Zuptas".

Read more on the BBC News website.

As South Africa waits to see if President Jacob Zuma will resign, one opposition politician has pointed out that there are two bills waiting for him to sign into law.

Democratic Alliance (DA) MP Glynnis Breytenbach told Times Live, external that "there is the possibility of him signing several controversial Bills into law as a parting gift".

Times Live adds that the DA have long opposed these two laws:

• The Protection of State Information Bill, known as the Secrecy Bill‚ which criminalises possession of “classified” information‚ and centralises the power to classify information as confidential. This, Ms Breytenbach says, would be done "with no meaningful oversight".
• Private Security Industry Regulatory Authority, known as the PSIRA Bill, which seeks to enforce local ownership of private security companies. Her problem with this is that it drives away "meaningful foreign direct investment".

Image source, AFP

South Africa's governing party says it will press ahead with a parliamentary no-confidence vote in President Jacob Zuma on Thursday because it can no longer keep the country waiting.

The party has tweeted the comments of its influential treasurer-general, Paul Mashatile:

The ANC top leadership body decided earlier this week that Mr Zuma, a life-long member of the party, should resign in favour his deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa.

He has so far refused, and has not commented.

Image source, AFP

South Africa's parliament will elect Cyril Ramaphosa as the new president tomorrow, if the chief justice is available to swear him in, the governing party's chief whip, Jackson Mthembu, has said.

The ANC has tweeted some of his comments:

South Africa's parliament will debate a no-confidence motion in President Jacob Zuma tomorrow, if he refuses to resign by then, senior officials of the governing ANC have said, according to tweets by respected local journalists:

South Africa's anti-corruption unit, the Hawks, have ended their raid on the home of the wealthy Gupta family in Johannesburg' s upmarket Saxonwold suburb, AFP news agency reports.

"We have now left the compound. It is an operation that is ongoing related to issues of 'state capture'," police spokesman Hangwani Mulaudzi told AFP, referring to alleged corruption in state institutions.

Image source, Reuters

The Huffington Post reports, external that it has acquired previous notes of consultations between a powerful member of the Gupta family, Ajay, and a lawyer.

The Guptas are likely to deny various allegations of corruption against them, and Ajay Gupta plans to deny that the family has been illegally enriched, it reports.

Image source, Reuters

The embattled Gupta family own a range of business interests in South Africa, including computing, mining, air travel, energy, technology and media.

The three brothers, Atul, Rajesh and Ajay, moved to the country in 1993 from India, just as white-minority rule was ending.

They are known friends of President Zuma - and his son, daughter and one of the president's wives worked for the family's firms.

The brothers have been accused of wielding enormous political influence in South Africa, with critics alleging that they have tried to "capture the state" to advance their own business interests.

Read more about the family here

South Africa's The Citizen has published some videos of the police raid early this morning on the hope of the Gupta family in the suburb Saxonwold in Johannesburg:

The parliamentary caucus of South Africa's governing ANC has started its specially convened meeting to discuss the fate of the embattled President Jacob Zuma, as this tweet shows:

Andrew Harding
BBC News, Johannesburg

Image source, AFP

Early this morning, as the plush suburb of Saxonwold was waking up - gardeners walking dogs, children being taken to school in 4x4s - armed police arrived at the enormous, high-walled, Gupta compound opposite the lion enclosure of Johannesburg Zoo, sealing off a section of the road, and venturing inside.

Soon afterwards, two luxury vehicles were seen driving out of the gates escorted by police in separate cars.

The Hawks - the elite high-priority crimes unit - confirmed that this was an operation to arrest suspects, rather than to raid properties.

It’s believed this is in connection with an investigation into alleged corruption the Estina Dairy in South Africa’s Free State.

South African media then reported that one of the Gupta brothers had been detained, along with a business associate, and that other members of the family were either handing themselves into the police, or were about to be arrested.

A blue police helicopter swung over the property, as local residents of Saxonwold, and passers by, shouted insults at the Guptas and voiced satisfaction about the police action.

“It’s very emotional for all South Africans. This is about getting South Africa right again,” said Tessa Turvey.

“This is real meaningful change. I certainly don’t think it would have happened if Zuma was still president of the ANC,” said a man, walking his dogs.

Soon afterwards, there were reports that another house, on the eastern outskirts of Johannesburg, had also been raided.

South African newspaper front pages mark a historic day, tweets the editor of South Africa's Star newspaper:

Image source, Getty

The arrests and police raids in South Africa relate to the Estina dairy farm, from which the controversial Gupta family - who are close to President Jacob Zuma - are alleged to have pocketed millions of dollars from a scheme originally meant for poor black farmers.

Allegations contained in a tranche of WikiLeaks-style leaked emails suggest that large sums of money meant for the Estina dairy project in South Africa's Free State province were allegedly siphoned-off to Gupta bank accounts and - eventually - paid for the family’s lavish wedding at Sun City, South Africa's upmarket holiday resort.

According to the National Prosecuting Authority's Asset Forfeiture Unit - which filed papers with the Bloemfontein High Court in January- just two million rand out of 220m rand ($169,00 - $18.5m; £118,500 - £13m) given to the project was spent on the farm, South Africa's Times Live reported, external.

The Guptas have repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

South Africa's main opposition leader Mmusi Maimane is pressing for parliament to be dissolved, and for a snap election to be called.

His move comes amid a worsening crisis in government, as President Jacob Zuma so far refuses to bow to pressure from the governing ANC to resign.

In a tweet, Mr Maimane said he would push parliamentary officials to discuss his proposal at a meeting on Thursday:

South Africa's Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba has warned President Jacob Zuma that the governing ANC will pass a no-confience vote on him if he refuses to resign.

Mr Gigaba is the first cabinet member to openly rebel against the embattled president since the ANC ordered him yesterday to step down for the sake of the country.

In a CNN interview, Mr Gigaba said "should he continue to refuse‚ should he refuse‚ we would then have to resort on a parliamentary process that‚ with a 62% majority and the support of other opposition parties‚ we are certain to pass".

Image source, Reuters