Image source, Reuters

SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has won a parliamentary seat in the constituency of Potsdam, defeating his rival, Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock, official results show, external.

Scholz won the seat with 34% of the vote, while Baerbock came second with 18.8%.

Scholz has not been a member of the Bundestag, the lower chamber of Germany's federal parliament, since 2011.

The top candidates for the SPD and the Greens went head to head in Potsdam, which borders the capital, Berlin, and is in the state of Brandenburg.

Scholz and Baerbock crossed paths regularly during the election campaign, and have expressed a willingness to engage in talks to form a coalition government together.

The result in Potsdam doesn't mean Baerbock won't win a seat in the Bundestag though. She's been listed as the top candidate for the Greens in Brandenburg - meaning she's almost certain to get in via the state list.

Prof Johannes Orphal
KIT Climate and Environment Centre, Karlsruhe

Tonight's latest results indicate a very tight result, and it's highly unlikely the two big rivals will form the next government together.

The campaign was heavily polarised between the conservative CDU and the Social Democrats and their so-called grand coalition has become rather unpopular.

So, the most important question is what the Greens will do next, with up to 15% of the vote, bearing in mind the liberal FDP will be necessary for any absolute majority in the Bundestag.

Assuming the Greens do form part of the new government, we can expect new initiatives for a faster and more general climate policy.

The liberals will ensure that financial stability and other economic aspects are also well preserved in these initiatives. So, we are looking at a new era of German climate policy with an interesting balance of ecological and economical goals.

While we still don't know who will lead Germany's next government, the three biggest parties do have different plans for the country's relations with its neighbours.

Here's a look at their foreign policy principles:

The SPD is committed to Nato, but supports the creation of an EU army. They have promised to spend 0.2% of Germany’s gross national income on the poorest developing countries.

The CDU/CSU said it would stand up for the Nato alliance and work with partners to strengthen the rules-based international system. They have placed emphasis on competing with China.

The Green Party said it would support Nato and get tough on authoritarian governments accused of human rights abuses. It is opposed to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and nuclear weapons on German soil.

Aleksandar Miladinovic
BBC Serbian, Frankfurt

Many immigrants from the Balkans go back two generations here and not all of them have the vote.

Their parents often came from the former Yugoslavia as “Gastarbeiter” (guest workers) and stayed for life. And yet often second-generation immigrants still don't have German citizenship so they were unable to take part in today's election.

“You simply lose interest in politics," says Tanja Lekic, 26, who was born and raised in Frankfurt. "The longer you are not allowed to vote, the more you feel you are powerless to change.”

Milkica Romic joined the local Social Democrats and thinks dual citizenship should be allowed: "It would help with integration and support voting in the future elections.”

Dejan Kekic, who has Serbian origins, did get to vote today.

“I want to see more investment in schools here, a technological breakthrough, to get back to the times when ‘Made in Germany’ sign meant something,” he tells the BBC.

Image source, Getty Images

With the Covid-19 pandemic far from over, many expected an election campaign dominated by talk of vaccinations and health measures. In reality,the key issues were climate change, the economy and frustration over issues like broadband speed.

This summer’s devastating floods killed 190 people in two big states in western Germany and ravaged local infrastructure.

That might have been a green issue before but now every party has big policies on curbing carbon emissions, going climate neutral and moving to renewable energy. Germany can’t rely on nuclear power, because it’s being phased out by the end of next year.

Other big-ticket items for the parties included the minimum wage, housing and tax rates. This focus may be a product of the Covid-19 crisis, which has heightened concerns about tax increases, a reduction in benefits, and the rising cost of living.

Matt Qvortrup
Professor of political science at Coventry University

Image source, EPA

The rise of centre-left candidate Olaf Scholz is nothing short of astonishing.

The former lawyer was a junior minister in Angela Merkel’s first government and ran the state of Hamburg before becoming finance minister in 2018.

His SPD party hit an all time low of 10% in the polls in 2017. Then in 2019, he suffered a blow after he lost a bid to become party leader.

But after that, he slowly rebuilt his image.

His rise can be attributed to three factors:

1) He was the architect of the G7 decision on a global minimum corporate tax rate and stepped out of Merkel’s shadow. And he has been given credit for the rude health of the German economy.

2) As a lawyer who has represented working class clients, he introduced a generous minimum wage in Germany.

3) Scholz was fortunate that his two rivals stumbled. Annalena Baerbock of the Greens has been criticised for embellishing her CV and for allegedly plagiarising parts of a book. But above all, Armin Laschet has been exceptionally gaffe-prone. He was seen as joking at a ceremony for the victims of this summer’s floods. This was but the latest in a series of missteps.

So, Scholz has proved popular because he is the continuity candidate. He is seen as calm, competent - and a little bit boring. German voters like that.

Image source, Reuters

Armin Laschet, the chancellor candidate for the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, has expressed clear disappointed with tonight's projected results.

"We cannot be happy with these results," he told the party faithful earlier, appearing somewhat glum.

Yet, when asked about his own political future during the TV debate with other leaders, Laschet was adamant he would be a key figure in talks to form a coalition government.

"I intend to conduct the exploratory talks as party chairman," he said.

Laschet is currently the leader of the CDU and the premier of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW).

He has previously said he will resign as NRW premier whatever happens in this election. He did not address that questions in the TV debate and remains to be seen if he will do so when the results are clear.

Annalena Baerbock said the numbers were "fantastic" for the Greens - they're hoping to get 15% of the vote, although latest projections have them falling just short.

Here she is speaking to supporters earlier in the evening:

Sira Thierij
BBC News, Berlin

Angela Merkel's not going to be going anywhere for a few weeks yet, but when she does, for a whole generation of new voters this will be the first time they will have known any other leader. She’s been in power since 2005.And it’s not just young voters who are facing the future without their popular chancellor.“Angela Merkel was here for 16 years and we knew what we would get when we voted for her,” says Tim from the western city of Düsseldorf. “She didn’t do a perfect job but it was good.”

“I didn’t like Angela Merkel to start with, but then I fell in love with her,” retired teacher Ute told me in Meerbusch, just outside Düsseldorf. “I’m a bit frightened because I think she leaves a hole. She gave us a feeling of security.”

Around 38% of German voters are 60 or over.

Sabine, who’s an artist, told me she was most impressed by Merkel’s decision not to shut the borders during the 2015 refugee crisis.

“Now with climate change there is only one party for me that sees the importance of this issue - the Greens.”

Benjamin Lee, a student in Bonn, says “there needs to be a push from a different political direction that needs to lead everyone forward”.

The Social Democrats have moved ahead of the centre right in the past hour, according to latest projections produced by the two big public broadcasters.

The ARD projection first.

The gap is even wider if you look at ZDF's latest projection.

Image source, EPA

Christmas may be almost three months away, but the big question posed to the leaders in tonight's TV debate - which has only just finished - is whether a government can be formed before the winter festivities.

It might be a nice seasonal present for Angela Merkel, for one thing, and you would think they could sort something out in that time. Let's not even mention the Netherlands next door, where they still haven't sorted that coalition issue out six months on from March's elections.

"Certainly before Christmas," agrees conservative leader Armin Laschet, pointing out that they have to get it finalised before Germany takes over the G7 presidency in January 2022.

Olaf Scholz was a little more cagey. "I wouldn’t want to name an actual date but we must certainly do everything we can by Christmas, if not well before. We have to show political leadership and enter into compromises that don’t just work on paper."

Image source, Reuters

Out of government since 2013, the pro-free market FDP’s popularity has waxed and waned in recent years. But this election could see the party reassert its influence. Here’s why.

Initial results suggest a two-party coalition with a majority in parliament looks unlikely. That brings into play a third party such as the FDP, which could be kingmaker in coalition negotiations.

Indeed, the FDP has indicated its willingness to team up with the CDU or SPD, and possibly even the Greens. That said, the liberals' leader, Christian Lindner, has ruled out a shift to the left on his watch.

"What we are interested in are the issues," Lindner said in the TV debate this evening.

He has his eye on a top job in the next government, preferably finance minister. Should he get his wish, Lindner would surely seek to implement his preferences for lower taxes, cuts to welfare, and conservative government borrowing.

Let's take a step back for a moment and take a look at how Germany's complex electoral system works.

Germany’s federal parliament, the Bundestag, is made up of at least 598 seats. When Germans go to the polls, they get two votes to elect member MPs to those seats.

The first is to elect a local MP in 299 constituencies. The candidate who wins the most votes in each constituency is guaranteed a seat. This is known as first-past-the-post voting.

The second vote is based on a different system - proportional representation. The remaining 299 seats are allocated based on each party's share of the vote.

Now, here’s the important part.

Image source, Getty Images

In Germany's mixed electoral system, the overall make-up of parliament must reflect the result of the second vote.

The second vote therefore determines the percentage of seats each party will get in the Bundestag and its chances of forming a government.

To form a government, a party or a coalition must have a majority (i.e. more than 50% of seats) in the Bundestag.

Image source, Reuters

Each chancellor candidate is continuing to set out their stall in a sometimes testy debate on German TV.

Asked about coalition talks, Greens co-leader and leading candidate Annalena Baerbock said she had a clear mandate to push a climate agenda in the next government.

“The new government must set the course for carbon neutrality in the next decades,” Baerbock says.

Her party is projected to win 14.1% of the vote in the latest projection by broadcaster ZDF.

Baerbock says she would govern according to the priorities of the many young people who voted for her party in this election.

“We must set the course for the future,” she says.

Image source, Getty Images

A former German ambassador to the UK and the US has told the BBC that he expects the formation of a new government to take months.

Speaking to the BBC's Ros Atkins, Peter Ammon said that he expected Angela Merkel to remain in place as chancellor as the parties sought to form "a three-way coalition".

He noted that Olaf Scholz was in prime position to become the next chancellor as the Green Party have made clear their preference for a coalition with the SPD - and he said that the FDP "cannot refuse again to make the formation of a government be possible".

However, he noted that any potential three-way coalition could be "less stable than a traditional two-way coalition".

He said that climate change had been the "most important topic" in the election, though he noted that Germany mirrored other Western nations where lines of division had formed right across the political spectrum.

"The division between rich and poor, where the middle class is slowly disappearing, you have a division between woke people and anti-woke groups, you have the division between young and old. So the situation is a bit uneven now here."

Image source, EPA

Centre-left leader Olaf Scholz has laughed off suggestions that getting only a quarter of the electorate's support isn't exactly a mandate to rule Germany.

Speaking during the televised "elephants' roundtable" he said governing with the conservatives in recent years was rather like having a coalition of three parties, pointing out that Markus Söder, the head of the Bavarian conservative CSU, often seemed to be running a separate party.

Mr Scholz also made clear he had most in common with the Greens but "my wish is to be constructive".

The other party waiting in the wings is the liberal FDP - and its leader Christian Linder has indicated that he's at least open to talking to all the main parties. "We're going to be forming a coalition from the democratic heart of politics. We will not need the groups on the margins, which is good news."

By that he means both the far-right AfD and also the radical left Die Linke.

Damien McGuinness
BBC News, Berlin

Image source, Getty Images

The exit polls have suggested that the Green Party could be on course for its best ever electoral performance and a role as the second-biggest party in any coalition government.

But tough questions now face it as to which party to partner up with, the SPD or the CDU.

What the Green Party wants is a centre-left government with the SPD. The Social Democrats are perhaps the more natural fit given the Greens' desire for a left-leaning government.

And the party's leaders are not keen on the CDU returning to government, as they feel the conservatives have not been taking climate change as seriously as they should be.

However, there will have to be a third partner to that coalition, almost certainly the liberal FDP. Their small state, low-tax ideology is almost the direct antithesis of the Greens' vision of Germany.

And obviously, the Greens will have a price to enter government. The foreign ministry is the natural fit for them; they have held it before and have a clear vision of how they want to engage with the international community.

But there could also be a major row over the finance ministry, especially if the FDP agrees to enter government.

Matt Qvortrup
Professor of political science at Coventry University

Becoming the largest party in a German federal election is no guarantee you will form a government.

In 1969, Kurt Georg Kiesinger of the CDU won nearly 50% of the votes. He even received a congratulatory phone call from Richard Nixon, the US president at the time.

But the other parties formed a government without him under the Social Democrat Willy Brandt. Likewise in 1976, Helmut Kohl’s CDU won the largest share of the votes, but the combined forces of centre-left SPD and the liberal FDP formed a coalition government.

The same could happen now. Even if Scholz wins, the Greens, CDU/CSU and the FDP could form a government without him.

Indeed, as we just reported, the CDU's leader, Armin Laschet, has claimed a mandate to do just that.

The main party leaders have been giving their views on the latest results in the "elephants' roundtable" TV appearance and it's conservative leader Armin Laschet who has given the most intriguing remarks.

He appears to suggest that even if his party comes second he can still form a government.

"The person who becomes chancellor has to bring the parties together and not every time the party with the most votes has ended up forming up a government," he said.

"No party is strong enough to [form a government] on their own and we'll have to find as many commonalities, which will mean three political parties," he says, blaming the departure of Angela Merkel for the poor conservative performance.

Image source, EPA

Jenny Hill
BBC Berlin correspondent at CDU HQ

Image source, Getty Images

There are mixed emotions here at CDU headquarters. While party members are relieved that the result is better than some opinion polls had suggested in the lead up to the election, this will still be the party's worst ever election result.

It certainly isn't the way people here wanted the Merkel era to end.

Nonetheless, Armin Laschet is putting a brave face on things and is acting as though he has a mandate to form a coalition government.

His party has been holding talks with some of the smaller parties that will be needed for the CDU to return to power.