Image source, EPA

The party leaders are now sitting together in a large TV studio and talking through the outcome of the election - the "elephants' roundtable" we told you about earlier.

We'll bring you the key lines shortly.

Nick Beake
BBC News, SPD HQ in Berlin

Cheers echoed through the cavernous lobby of Social Democrat HQ when the latest, updated projection suggested the party had inched ahead of the conservatives.

Outside, young party activists have been keeping the barman busy at the beer stall and there is a buzz about the place.

Image source, Reuters

But this is going to be a long night, and the results don’t seem to be what the centre-left was hoping for only a week ago.

There’s a full-blown music band set up in the corner: drums, guitars and keyboards. But it doesn’t look like it will strike up any time soon.

Image source, Reuters

• Projections give the centre-left Social Democrats a narrow lead in the race to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel
• Their candidate, Olaf Scholz, said the country had voted for change, and that he was ready to form and lead the next government
• The Christian Democrat candidate (and Mrs Merkel's chosen successor) Armin Laschet, said he too wanted to lead the next government - although he acknowledged his party's result was not what he had hoped for
• The Greens came third in the election, with the liberal FDP behind them. With possibly three parties needed for a majority, the coalition talks are expected to be long and difficult
• We could be waiting weeks to find out who will be Germany's next leader

Image source, Getty Images

In around 10 minutes, the main chancellor candidates will take part in a discussion, live on German TV.

The Elefantenrunde, literally elephants’ roundtable, is a German political tradition that brings together the leaders of the main parties for debate a couple of hours after the polls have closed.

It’s broadcast on the big TV channels and is a must-watch for clues as to what the party leaders think of the results and what will happen next.

Given how tight the race is, it could be rather tense, as the two main parties - the SPD and the CDU/CSU alliance - have both claimed a mandate to govern.

Why elephants? That’s because everyone involved is a political heavyweight.

Matt Qvortrup
Professor of political science at Coventry University

Image source, EPA

The projected result - even if it is neck-and-neck - is a disaster for the CDU. The party has never had less than 30% of the vote.A year ago they were on 40%. The Social Democrats were just above 10%.It is not just Laschet’s fault.Angela Merkel is in part to blame. She has failed to find a capable successor, and she has not thrown her weight behind Laschet as much as she could have.This outcome is not good for her legacy.

The turnout is up in the larger cities. That is good for SPD. It is also good for the Greens.But at the moment, the outcome is far from certain.

Here's Olaf Scholz himself, speaking to supporters at his party's HQ in Berlin a little while ago.

Is he Germany's next chancellor?

Image source, Getty Images

The former deputy leader of the centre-left SPD has told the BBC that he believes that his party is the "clear winner" of today's election.

Ralf Stegner, who now leads the SPD in the state of Schleswig-Holstein, said that while the polls may be close, when it comes to government formation "its definitely clear that it should be under the leadership of Olaf Scholz and not the loser of this election, who is Armin Laschet, the CDU candidate".

Mr Stegner accepted that the formation of a three-party coalition may prove challenging, but he said that he expected the various parties to come together.

"As long as there is no majority for a two-party coalition we will need to build a government coalition out of three partners and that is obviously a difficult task which we will have to solve," he said.

Here's the address the conservative candidate Armin Laschet gave to supporters a little while ago. He said the result brought big challenges - which no party could face alone.

Armin Laschet thanked Angela Merkel for her service as chancellor - but admitted he is not happy with the election result so far.

Paul Kirby
BBC News Online Europe editor, Berlin

We've had the exit polls and the first projections and we're still none the wiser. The fact is there's no obvious winner in the race to succeed Angela Merkel and the fight to form a government.

It was quite a contrast listening to the two big rivals: first came Merkel-successor Armin Laschet, appearing to tough out the conservatives' worst ever result, and then Olaf Scholz with a coy "let's wait and see".

Laschet admitted the conservatives "could not be happy with the results" but he was determined to fight on, vowing to everyone possible to form a government under him as chancellor.

Scholz sent his supporters into raptures, even though he didn't really promise them anything. But you feel he has more momentum than his rival.

What we can say is that opinion polls pretty much got it right. There are two parties waiting in the wings for some plum jobs. The Greens have achieved a record showing, if the projections are right, and the liberals have held up well too. It's going to be a long night.

Given the uncertainty of the result, there were mixed emotions upon the announcement of the exit poll earlier.

At election events in Berlin, supporters of all parties applauded the projected results.

But some appeared happier than others, especially those in the SPD camp, which has already staked a claim to lead the next government based on the exit poll.

Image source, EPA

Image source, EPA

Image source, Reuters

As Germany reacts to early election results, let’s take stock of some of the key developments so far, and what they mean for the country’s political future.

• The two main parties - the centre-left SPD and centre-right CDU/CSU alliance - are tied for first place on just under 25% of the vote each, according to the first projected results from broadcaster ARD

• The predictions would be - by far - the worst result at the federal level in the CDU/CSU’s history. It’s not great for the SPD, either, but a slight improvement on the last election in 2017
• They were worse still for the Left party (die Linke), which was projected to get 5% - making it unclear whether it will enter parliament
• Both the liberal FDP and the Greens are happy with their results
• If those exit polls prove accurate, they would bring multiple options for coalition governments into play. A three-party coalition would be needed to make a majority in parliament. Both the SPD and the CDU/CSU have asserted claims to lead the next government
• CDU/CSU leader Armin Laschet, Angela Merkel’s favoured successor, said he was disappointed with the exit polls but said the conservatives would “do everything we can to form a government”
• The SPD’s chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz told cheering supporters he was delighted with the projected results, which he said showed voters wanted him to replace Merkel
• Greens chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock said the numbers were "fantastic" and showed the country wanted the next government to focus on curbing climate change

Image source, EPA

The far-right party AfD - an abbreviation of its name which means an alternative for Germany - looks set to secure 11% of the vote nationally.

Broadcaster ARD reports it may secure 21% of all votes in the former East Germany, where it has long been strongest.

However, despite their likely haul of MPs, all the other parties represented in the Bundestag have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD.

Their policies include leaving the EU, strict immigration controls and an end to Covid-19 measures such as lockdowns and mask-wearing. That’s unpalatable to the mainstream parties.

Katya Adler
Europe Editor

There was rapturous applause here at SPD headquarters when their centre-left candidate for chancellor, Olaf Scholz, took to the stage.

The assumption here is that they are looking at Germany’s next chancellor BUT this is a very tight election.

The exact makeup of Germany next government is far from clear.

Essentially, Germany’s biggest two parties failed to wholly convince voters.

You've seen the exit polls - now here are the first projected results. These include the first actual returns from polling stations. And as we've been saying for over an hour, the result really is too close to call.

A reminder that there's no rule that the party with the most seats or the highest share of the vote has to lead the government - if the second-placed party could form a viable coalition with others then they may take the chancellorship.

The centre-left leader said his party had shown what it takes to govern a country. They have, of course, been in coalition with Angela Merkel's party for years.

To an ovation from ecstastic supporters he said the party was awaiting the final results - "but then we will get down to work".

Image source, Reuters

Centre-left leader Olaf Scholz has told cheering supporters he's delighted with the party's showing in today's elections.

"I'm pleased the citizens of this country have voted the way they did - that the party is doing better than for a very long time."

Describing the outcome as a great success, he said it showed voters wanted him to be the next chancellor.

While we wait for more from the SPD, here's a bit more from the CDU's Laschet - whose supporters were a bit more downbeat after their historically low result.

"It’s going to be a long night," Laschet says, after acknowledging the disappointing results.

He says all parties must now "overcome their contradictions and hold Germany together".

"We have received a clear mandate from our voters. A vote for the union is a vote cast against a left-wing government," he says.

"We will do everything we can to form a government led by the CDU."

On the campaign trail, Laschet repeatedly warned that a vote for the SPD could let in the far left.

They, however, may not make it into parliament.

Centre-left leader Olaf Scholz is cheered as he arrives on stage at party HQ.

Nick Beake
BBC News, SPD HQ in Berlin

The exit poll was greeted with huge cheers here at SPD headquarters in Berlin. Party activists have been gathering here in a makeshift beer-garden over the course of the afternoon - this being Germany after all.

Many here had expected the party to do well but results appear to have exceeded expectations and the mood here has really lifted.

The SPD has long been the junior coalition partner here in Angela Merkel's government, but if the party is to experience a reversal of fortunes and become the leading partner then there are questions of how an Olaf Scholz-led government will look.

How will Germany engage with its biggest trading partner China, what will its role within the EU be, how will it engage with the UK and how will he tackle the challenges posed by climate change and a post-pandemic economic recovery?

But if the hopes and expectations here at SPD headquarters are well founded, before any of these issues are faced comes the tricky question of coalition formation.

They've polled around 15%, according to the exit polls, and chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock says the numbers are "fantastic".

"We have a mandate for the future," she says.

The country needs a new start and a "climate government", she says.

Standing alongside party colleague Robert Habeck she praised young voters and the schoolchildren who took part in a Fridays for Future rally in Berlin two days ago.