Image source, EPA

There are signs that Putin's power is still intact for now following the Wagner group’s mutiny but we may see the impact over the coming months, Emily Ferris, a specialist in Russian domestic politics at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told the BBC.

“It’s tempting to say that this has irreparably weakened [Putin], and I think it's really one of those things that plays out over time,” Ferris said.

In the short term, the Kremlin appears to be in control, Ferris said: Putin still has the support of core Russian institutions such as the FSB security service, and there were no mass defections from the military as Wagner boss Prigozhin had hoped.

However, the effects of the mutiny could be reflected in Russia’s upcoming regional elections in September, when Russians vote for legislative parliaments across the country.

Even if the results are likely pre-determined, Ferris said that the processes, turnout and the messaging around the elections are important – and could highlight important themes ahead of the presidential elections in 2024.

“I think a lot of the messaging (around the elections) will determine how the Kremlin pulls itself back together after this,” she said.

Questions have been swirling about the future of Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries since he agreed to pull back his troops from their march on Moscow and head into effective exile in Belarus.

Many speculated that the group could be disbanded.

But that no longer appears to be the case, with the group resuming recruitment into its ranks, according to Russia’s state news agency Tass.

“Recruitment is under way,” it quoted an unnamed employee of the group in Novosibirsk as saying.

It also quoted a Tass correspondent saying banners promoting service with Wagner had been reinstated there, having been taken down on Saturday.

A message on the Telegram channel Wagner Group, which states that it is an official Wagner account, said earlier in the day: “Recruitment into Wagner Group [under way] at this moment in time [to go] to the special operation zone”.

It said applicants would have to present their passport or a copy of it, and that recruitment would be taking place at Molkino, the site of a military training ground, in the south-west region of Krasnodar.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Russian authorities are investigating whether Western special services were involved in Wagner’s mutiny on Saturday, Tass news agency reports.

Lavrov also says the US ambassador to Moscow “gave signals” that their country was not involved, adding that what took place was a Russian internal affair.

Jonathan Beale
Defence correspondent

The head of the British Army says he believes the threat from Russia will remain.

Gen Sir Patrick Sanders said despite the events in Russia over the weekend, “Putin’s army was still holding ground”.

Gen Sanders said you should “never write off Moscow”. Even a fractured Russia, he said, was unlikely to be good news.

Speaking in London at the Land Warfare Conference hosted by the Royal United Services Institute think tank, he noted the dispute inside Russia, which led to the failed mutiny, was not about ending the war in Ukraine but about how to fight it better.

Gen Sanders said it was too early to measure the success of Ukraine’s offensive. But he said Ukraine’s initial “shaping operations” had been impressive. He also said intercepted communications told the UK that Russia knew which Ukrainian forces had been trained by the British Army.

Gen Sanders said: “I believe the Russian threat will remain - we must arm ourselves and be ready."

Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister, Hanna Maliar, says some 130 sq km (50 sq miles) of territory has been reclaimed by Ukraine along the southern front line since the country’s counter-offensive was launched earlier this month.

According to Maliar, the village of Rivnopil, which lies in the occupied Donetsk region, is among the latest places to be retaken from Russia. The BBC has not independently verified this.

Meanwhile, the acting mayor of the Kherson region has denied that Ukraine has gained a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC last week that battlefield progress had been “slower than desired”.

You can read more about some of the latest developments in Ukraine here.

Just joining us or need a recap? Let's take a look at what's been happening today, following the dramatic events in Russia over the weekend which saw Wagner's head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, lead a short-lived rebellion in Russia.

• Russian state television has shown defence minister Sergei Shoigu visiting troops - though it is unclear when the video was recorded. Shoigu was the subject of much of the ire of Wagner leader Prigozhin, who called for him to be removed, so the release of the video is being seen as a clear message from President Vladimir Putin that he intends to stand by Shoigu.
• President Putin has also appeared in a video - the first since the weekend’s developments - addressing participants at an industrial forum. He made no mention of the Wagner developments, instead praising the “engineers of the future” and their contribution to the country's industry “in the face of severe external challenges”.
• It’s still not clear where Prigozhin is, or what his fate might be. After the Kremlin proposed dropping all charges against him, Russian state media have since reported that the case against him remains open - though it is unclear what this might mean for him.
• Russian prime minister Mikhail Mishustin has called on Russians to unite behind President Putin, saying authorities worked “harmoniously” to ensure stability in the wake of the mutiny. Mishustin - who was appointed PM by Putin in early 2020 - also called on citizens to rally “around the president".

Image source, Reuters

A little while ago, we heard that Russian President Vladimir Putin has held a phone call with the "fully supportive" Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi.

"The president of Iran expressed his full support for the Russian leadership in view of the events of 24 June," the Kremlin statement says, referring to the Wagner rebellion.

Iran has denied supplying drones to Russia for the war effort in Ukraine, after being accused by President Volodymyr Zelensky of supplying Moscow with "kamikaze" drones used in deadly attacks.

The US claims Iran is now Russia's top military backer.

Iran and Russia also discussed working together closer on trade, energy and transport, as well Syria and ensuring regional stability.

Vitaly Shevchenko
BBC Monitoring

Posters calling for unity and warning against bloodshed have reportedly appeared in Rostov-on-Don after the Russian city was briefly taken over by Wagner mercenaries.

“Brothers! Let’s prevent bloodshed! There are no enemies here! We will only win together!” say the slogans in photographs posted by a local Telegram channel, external called Tutina.

According to it, the posters appeared in various locations including two parks, Gorky and Ostrovsky. The BBC has been able to confirm that this is where the photographs were taken.

It is not clear who placed the banners, but the initiative likely came from the authorities.

On Saturday morning, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group captured Rostov-on-Don, a city of more than a million people and the seat of Russia’s main command centre for military operations in Ukraine.

The mercenaries then left the city in the evening of that day after the Kremlin announced a deal under which Prigozhin is to move to Belarus. Nothing has been seen or heard from him since.

Laurence Peter
Europe analyst

President Vladimir Putin's latest video message implies it's business as usual for the Kremlin: he congratulates young engineers attending an industry forum.

The address is full of patriotic rhetoric. Putin praises "youngsters, experienced specialists, the collectives at our enterprises", saying they have achieved production growth in the most important sectors for the country's life - both civilian and military.

Interestingly, the industrial forum is taking place in Tula, a city south of Moscow which is traditionally an arms manufacturing centre. And Tula was on the route north to Moscow that Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner troops took at the weekend - though they turned back before occupying Tula.

Image source, Kremlin.ru

Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued his first statement since the Wagner group's mutiny over the weekend, appearing in a Kremlin video addressing participants at an industrial forum.

Addressing people at a convention called the "Engineers of the future", Putin praised companies for ensuring "the stable operation" of the country's industry "in the face of severe external challenges", according to quotes cited by AFP news agency.

It is unclear when or where Putin was when he recorded the statement. He made no mention of the deal in which Prigozhin agreed to stand down his troops and move to Belarus.

In another address on Saturday, Putin accused Wagner mercenaries of treason, and called their actions a "stab in the back."

Operation 'Restore Putin's Reputation'published at 12:47 British Summer Time 26 June 2023

12:47 BST 26 June 2023

Sarah Rainsford
Eastern Europe Correspondent

Operation ‘Restore Putin’s Reputation’ is now in full swing after a mutiny that has badly damaged the president’s authority, his strongman image.

First, video footage of the Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was posted this morning - supposedly at a forward command post for the war on Ukraine. We don’t know when it was filmed, but we can read the message it’s meant to send: that Vladimir Putin is protecting Shoigu for now, not sacking him as Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded when he launched his mutiny over the weekend.

Then state news agencies dropped the news that the criminal case against Prigozhin was still open. That suggests the man Putin had publicly declared a traitor might not get off scot-free, as the Kremlin had said on Saturday in a move that had shocked many, as a sign of weakness.

And now, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has come out, calling on his team to unite behind their president. He claimed Russia was at war "for the right to choose our own path". There was no mention that this crisis was caused by an internal mutiny led by a one-time close ally of Putin.

The UK government is "monitoring" the situation in Russia following the Wagner mercenary group's mutiny against the Kremlin over the weekend, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tells broadcasters during a visit to Nottinghamshire.

He says he agrees with the US assessment that the rebellion highlighted the fissures within President Vladimir Putin's government, but adds it's "too early to predict with certainty what might happen as a result of this".

Sunak refuses to be drawn into questions around the possibility of regime change in Moscow, but says the government is preparing "for a range of scenarios."

Laurence Peter
Europe analyst

Image source, Reuters

One extraordinary aspect of the weekend’s turmoil in Russia is the apparent mediation role of Belarus' leader Alexander Lukashenko.

According to the Kremlin, Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin backed down, his troops abandoned their march on Moscow, and he agreed to move to Belarus after he negotiated directly with Lukashenko.

But hosting the maverick commander in Belarus could be risky for Lukashenko.

Belarus was one of the launchpads for Putin’s war in Ukraine, and Russian missiles have been fired from Belarusian airspace, but so far Lukashenko has avoided committing Belarusian troops to the war.

Now Lukashenko may find it harder to avoid being dragged into the war or into Russia’s political turmoil.

If Prigozhin does turn up in Belarus it means he is abroad but easily within Russia's reach.

This can also be seen as payback time for the Kremlin. Putin’s pledge of police reinforcements helped to keep Lukashenko in power in 2020, when mass protests against Lukashenko’s re-election - widely denounced as fraudulent - threatened to topple him.

So Lukashenko’s fate appears closely tied to Putin’s – he is one of the few foreign leaders that Putin can rely on, and Belarus, like Russia, is under extensive Western sanctions.

Lukashenko's harsh authoritarian rule, decades old, is similar to Putin’s. Both model themselves on the intolerant conservatism and militarism of the Soviet era.

But the Belarusian “little brother” helping out the Russian “big brother” in his hour of need looks humiliating for Putin.

Image source, EPA

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya says the relocation of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus "adds another element of instability" in the country.

Referring to Prigozhin as a "war criminal", Tikhanovskaya said in comments cited by the independent Belarusian Zerkalo news website that her country does not need "more criminals and bandits".

Her comment come after it was announced Prigozhin would be going to Belarus after his short-lived rebellion in Russia over the weekend came to a halt, following a deal overseen by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

Tikhanovskaya also criticised Lukashenko, saying that he has made Belarus "hostage to other people's games and wars".

Tikhanovskaya fled Belarus in 2020 after contesting an election against Lukashenko, which she is widely thought to have won. She was later sentenced to 15 years' jail in absentia by a Belarusian court.

After falling to a 15-month low earlier on Monday in the wake of the weekend’s drama, the Russian rouble has seen some mild recovery throughout the day.

By 10:10 GMT, it was 0.2% stronger against the US dollar at 84.53, Reuters reports, recovering after hitting 87.2300 in early trade, its weakest point since March 2022.

It also gained 0.3% against the euro, to trade at 92.07, and firmed 0.5% against the yuan to 11.66, showing recoveries after hitting its lowest point in more than two months against both currencies.

In Russia, the country is coming to terms with a weekend which saw Yevgeny Prigozhin lead the Wagner mercenary group from Ukraine into Russia and towards Moscow - before brokering a sudden deal to abandon the action.

The BBC's Russia editor Steve Rosenberg has taken a look at how the events are being covered across the country's papers:

Image source, EPA

Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin says Russia has faced “a challenge to its stability”, and must remain united behind President Vladimir Putin in comments made during a televised government meeting.

In footage run by state-owned news agency Tass, Mishustin said that “under the leadership of the president” government officials worked “harmoniously” to ensure stability in the wake of the mutiny.

“The main thing in these conditions is to ensure the sovereignty and independence of our country, the security and well-being of citizens,” he said, calling on the people to rally “around the president”.

You'd be forgiven for not knowing Mishustin, who is a relatively low-profile figure in Russia’s politics. He was appointed prime minister – a largely administrative role – by Putin in early 2020.

How we're investigating the Shoigu videopublished at 11:26 British Summer Time 26 June 2023

11:26 BST 26 June 2023

A little earlier, we posted video footage of Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting troops in Ukraine - you can watch it again above.

But it remains unclear when exactly the video of Shoigu was recorded - this is important as the Wagner mutiny took place over the weekend.

We're currently looking into it. However, there are several challenges.

Some reports say Shoigu visited the troops on Friday - most notably from the Russian war blogger Boris Rozhin. However, Rozhin’s blog lacks evidence to back up his claim.

We do know that a report of the visit was first posted on social media site Telegram by Russian state media at 07:46 this morning, Moscow time. Shortly afterwards Russia’s defence ministry posted the video on its Telegram account.

Regardless of when filming took place, the fact Russia’s defence ministry has posted it is a clear signal that Shoigu remains in charge.

In the next few hours, my colleagues and I at BBC Verify will be working to identify where the video was shot using visual clues. For example, by trying to match landscapes in the video against claims of where it was filmed.

We’ll also try and find out as much as we can about when the filming took place.

We’ll keep you posted.

Tessa Wong
Asia digital reporter

The weekend's chaotic events in Russia would no doubt have been keenly watched by Moscow's closest ally, China.

Officially, Beijing is playing it cautious and keeping tight-lipped.

After remaining silent for most of the weekend, the foreign affairs ministry released a very brief statement late last night, stating that what happened was "Russia's internal affair".

As Russia's "friendly neighbour" and partner, "China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity," it added.

But Chinese state media has been more vocal, hewing close to the pro-Putin and pro-Russia stance they have taken since the start of the war.

After initially playing down the incident, they have belatedly begun covering the incident in earnest, painting it as a win for Putin and shooting down the idea that it could be a turning point in the Ukraine war.

In an English-language analysis, the Global Times said those in the West who view the incident as dealing a blow to Putin's regime were guilty of "wishful thinking".

Citing Chinese experts, it sought to portray the quick end of the rebellion as a showcase of Putin's power, and that the West was capitalising on the situation to "instigate an anti-Russia sentiment".

Image source, .

The Wagner mercenary group's brief rebellion over the weekend is over, but it has left us with more questions than answers about the fate of Russia, its leader Vladimir Putin, and the war in Ukraine.What will Putin do next? How will the Kremlin respond to such a blatant rebellion against its authority?

Tune in to the BBC's Ukrainecast to explore the fallout from the weekend's events.