John Fernandez
BBC Guernsey political reporter

After a day and a half of debate it’s clear the States is divided and Education, Sport and Culture have the numbers.

We may not have finished the discussion on the future of secondary education, but what’s clear following the defeat of Deputy Andy Cameron’s plans is they’ll sail past the line with no problems.

Proposals from Deputies Le Tocq and Leadbeater will fall by the wayside and the ESC juggernaut will continue.

The question now is what next for Deputy Andy Cameron? He fundamentally disagrees with ESC’s key policy and has fought in the trenches to see it binned.

He wants to stay put and remain as the committee’s sports champion. I suspect his four colleagues may have other ideas.

So motion was lost 17-22 and here's how States members voted:

Pour: Parkinson, Roffey, Soulsby, St Pier, Trott, Brouard, Burford, Bury, Cameron, De Sausmarez, Fairclough, Falla, Gabriel, Gollop, Kazantseva-Miller, Le Tocq, Matthews.

Contre: Meerveld, Moakes, Murray, Oliver, Prow, Queripel, Roberts, Snowdon, Taylor, Vermeulen, Aldwell, Blin, De Lisle, Dudley-Owen, Dyke, Ferbrache, Haskins, Helyar, Inder, Leadbeater, Mahoney, McKenna.

The States is due to meet on Wednesday to discuss the Government Work Plan and after that debate on three further amendments and a final vote on the secondary education proposals will take place.

Deputies Andy Cameron and Lindsay de Sausmarez have been unsuccessful in replacing the education committee's proposals with their own plans.

The vote was: Pour: 17 Contre: 22

They involve using the current Sixth Form Centre at Les Varendes will continue to be used for 16-18 education.

Les Ozouets would be developed solely for The Guernsey Institute.

They said money the committee was asking for to build a new building would be reinvested in improving educational offering at all secondary sites, but the lack of detailed revenue costs were questioned by a number of deputies.

So while we'll get a decision on the amendment this evening when will the other amendments be discussed and the final propositions voted on?

Well unless States members agree to change the standing rules it will go forward to the September meeting - so after the summer break - along with the other business on the agenda for this meeting.

There is another States meeting next week but that is currently set aside for the the Government Work Plan.

Speaking on the Cameron amendment Deputy John Gollop said he was "not particularly in love with either model".

He said in terms of education "we need to move away from a one size fits all model".

The father of the house said he was "minded to give the Cameron amendment the benefit of the doubt", but if it fails he would back the education committee's plan "as it's better to get something done than nothing".

Deputy John Dyke said the Committee for Education, Sport and Culture proposals were a "workable solution".

He said: "We cannot go on and on and on, our people here are expecting progress, our children need progress, if we just fudge this now and do not support the committee it's tantamount to sabotage.

"That's how the population will see it they'll think of us as the worst States since the Ice Age."

He added: "We just must get on."

Mr Dyke said the committee must work with the teachers, but it is not the teachers' job to decide policy.

Deputy Tina Bury said what she heard from islanders was: "We can't just make a decision for the sake of it, I'm really worried the States just want to look decisive and they want to make a decisoin and they're going to make the wrong one."

She said: "I'm worried about that too because the ramifications of that are so extensive, will last way before our legacy here and I don't want to look back and know I was part of the wrong decision."

Therefore she will give her support to the Cameron amendment.

Ms Bury summed up: "It gives us a way forward but also gives us flexibility in the future to react to the future pupil numbers, which it seems quite clear we don't really know that accurately.

"Where as the ESC proposals commit us to tens of millions of capital and it sets in stone a sixth form experimental model that there are no examples of anywhere else in the country working."

Deputy Peter Ferbrache has made his support for the Education, Sport and Culture proposals clear.

He described the plans as aspirational.

The chief minister opposed the Cameron amendment for reasons including creating a postcode inequality with "people paying more to be near Les Varendes".

He added: "People think it doesn't exist, it will exist. We already get people saying I'd like to go to this school, I'm not quite in the catchment area, how can I do that."

After the listing of achievements by well-known islanders and some schoolyard reminiscing a guillotine motion - which would cause debate to be wound up and a vote taken - was called and failed to get enough support.

Deputy Yvonne Burford said she can't support the education model as she believes it will be "revenue inefficient".

She will support the Cameron amendment as it "has the capacity to evolve".

However, the deputy said it "still goes against the grain" not to be basing decisions on more detailed proposals and this was "not how a system of education should be designed".

Debate will continue when members return at 14:15.

John Fernandez
BBC Guernsey political reporter

The States is split.

On one side, we have the establishment arguing for Education, Sport and Culture’s plans – scant on detail but high on ambition according to the committee.

On the other, the opposition led by Deputy Cameron rallying some support for a model many teachers are now leaning towards supporting.

The debate has already got nasty – it was always going to on an issue which has divided the island for more than a decade.

Deputy Neil Inder, a veteran of the education trenches, made a speech that stood out, as he argued that the "tail was wagging the dog" and States members were becoming "vessels for the unions".

He wants to see progress after years of upheaval and uncertainty.

The key for this afternoon’s debate is where will the wavering voters go? Will these speeches convince Deputy Chris Blin to back ESC? The Alderney Reps appear onside already. While Deputy Chief Minister Heidi Soulsby sees the merits of both sides and could play a key role.

Deputy Neil Inder is another politician calling for the States to make a decision on the future secondary education.

He said: "Basically if we cannot agree a plan we cannot begin to invest."

Mr Inder said businesses were calling for long-term investment in skills and education with concern "continually raised... repeatedly by businesses of the inevitable impact of further delay".

He added: "Post-pandemic Guernsey needs to develop a better qualified, more attractive and diverse workforce and to do this it's also critical for individuals to see there are no limits to personal ambition."

Deputy Simon Fairclough has suggested the opinions of teachers should not be ignored as they are the ones who will have to make the system the States puts in place work.

He told the States: "We cannot simply ignore the views of teachers and their unions who are going to work in the schools and live with the consequences of our decision."

The deputy chief minister said: "We have tried to find the perfect model for the secondary school system in Guernsey, but we have not accepted that there can be no such thing.

"That compromises have to be made - be it class sizes, room sizes, outdoor areas, curriculum provision, traffic management, car parking, equality of opportunity or equity for that matter."

She referenced the impact of Brexit and the ongoing pandemic on decisions and public revenue.

Mrs Soulsby went on to say: "When the projections show falling pupil numbers in the future, the question I ask myself is should we be looking at our forever school model now or one that sees us through a time of great uncertainty."

She said if there are a fall in student numbers then the weakness of the committee model is "it still includes four schools" as it includes a sixth form centre at Les Ozouets.

Deputies Peter Roffey and Steve Falla have both paid tribute to Deputy Andy Cameron's character in being willing to put forward proposals against those approved by his own committee.

Mr Roffey said especially for a new deputy - he was elected for the first time in October - it showed bravery and strength of character to step out of line.

He went on to say the alternative proposal was "the only way that will take us forward to some closure on this".

It's been mentioned a lot in debate already - here's a reminder of what The Guernsey Institute, external aims to do.

It will bring together the College of Further Education, the Institute of Health and Social Care Studies and the GTA University Centre under one roof.

Currently they are spread across five sites.

However, the aim is not just to move to one site but combine the best of the three so they become "more than the sum of their parts".

A need to focus on educational outcomes, rather than buildings, has been a common theme among speakers so far - but the staff and students will need somewhere to do their lessons.

John Fernandez
BBC Guernsey political reporter

Make no mistake; Deputy Andy Cameron is a problem for Education.

His opening speech, on his plan to keep the sixth form centre at Les Varendes and close La Mare High may not have been a work of art – but it certainly rattled Education members.

Two points of correction from President Andrea Dudley-Owen – one called out as erroneous by the bailiff – were evidence that the committee fear this proposal.

The Gavin-ite wing of the States has coalesced around this scheme, so Deputy Cameron has some backing. But he needs more than that... simply put, he doesn’t have the numbers.

What Deputy Cameron has on his side is he knows where the chinks in ESC’s armour are; labelling the model proposed as "operationally very challenging, financially nonsensical and educationally detrimental".

Will it be enough to convince the and other deputies to break rank? I doubt it.

On Thursday there was a lot of debate over the numbers being used to reflect the results of a survey of education staff by staff.

Well that's continued on Friday so here's a reminder of the headline figures they released.