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We're expecting lawmakers to start voting on tabling Gaetz's motion, which could end this attempt to oust McCarthy, at 13.30 ET (18:30 BST).

Three ways this could end for McCarthypublished at 17:34 British Summer Time 3 October 2023

17:34 BST 3 October 2023

Anthony Zurcher
BBC North America correspondent, reporting from Capitol Hill

Image source, Reuters

1. Kevin McCarthy holds onto his job - without help from the Democrats

The Republicans currently have a slim majority in the House - 221 to 212 Democrats. Assuming every member casts a vote, McCarthy would be able to survive just with Republican support if all but four of his party back him.

2. Kevin McCarthy holds onto his job - with Democratic help

The problem for McCarthy is that five House Republicans - including Gaetz - have said publicly that they will vote to oust the speaker.

Democrats could simply choose not to vote - or vote "present" - which would lower the number of votes McCarthy would need to achieve majority support.

There would be political consequences from this outcome, however. Democrats could extract some concessions from McCarthy. And Gaetz and his right-wing cadre would cite the vote as evidence that McCarthy is insufficiently conservative - and could try to oust him again.

3. Kevin McCarthy is ousted - for now

If McCarthy loses the removal motion, it triggers a new election for Speaker of the House.

Democrats will probably back Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Many Republicans could stick with McCarthy, if he chooses to run again.

Or, a different Republican candidate could emerge from the chaos.

Image source, Getty Images

No speaker has ever been removed from office through the method Matt Gaetz is using - a “motion to vacate.” And this is only the third time that such a motion has been filed in more than a century.

The last time was in 2015, when Representative Mark Meadows challenged Speaker John Boehner (both Republicans).

A vote was never held on that motion, but two months later, Boehner announced he was stepping down from the job. Meadows later became chief of staff for President Donald Trump.

Prior to that you have to go all the way back to 1910. Republican Speaker Joe Cannon faced a rebellion in his own party, and so called a vote on his own speakership.

It was similar to a tactic much more common in British politics – when, in the midst of turmoil, a governing party calls a “motion of confidence” in hopes of bringing matters to a head.

Back in 1910, Cannon’s gamble paid off – he won the vote.

Sam Cabral
Reporting from Capitol Hill

It is becoming clear there is little enthusiasm for extending McCarthy a lifeline across the aisle.

During a morning meeting for Democrats in the House, no one came to McCarthy's defence, attendees tell reporters outside the room.

Some cited his comments that he hadn’t come to the Democrats seeking their help.

Party leadership also showed video of McCarthy from Face the Nation on Sunday where he tried to blame the narrowly averted shutdown on Democrats, according to lawmakers in the meeting.

Here are three statements capturing a common view that's being expressed.

Hakeem Jeffries, the US House minority leader said it was on the Republican Party to join Democrats in moving the country forward.

He said "we are ready, willing and able" to work with Republicans but "it is on them to join us".

It seems simple – to survive the vote, McCarthy needs a majority of representatives (218) to back him.

If the vote goes along straight party lines, McCarthy will win 222-213.

But with an unknown number of rebels on his own side ready to kick him out, the calculus becomes more complicated.

Can he limit defections to four or fewer? If so, McCarthy can win without the backing of any Democrats.

But that seems unlikely, according to political reporters who’ve been taking the temperature this week. The alternative is to rely on Democrats to back McCarthy or, at the very least, abstain.

If enough of them do that, McCarthy can win.

But relying on Democratic votes comes with its own political price. Already there is talk of concessions that the opposition could extract – more aid for Ukraine is at the top of the list. And that could further fan the flames of rebellion inside the Republican ranks.

Image source, Getty Images

To unpick why Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s job is in peril we have to rewind to the 2022 midterm elections.

That’s when Republicans gained a majority in the House – but a slim one, just nine members (222-213).

That meant that a relatively small group of hardliners delayed McCarthy’s election as speaker – it took 15 rounds of voting in the House to install him in the job back in January.

Among the concessions McCarthy offered to his Republican opponents was a change in rules to allow just one member of the House to trigger a vote on whether to unseat the speaker – known as a “motion to vacate”.

Fast forward to last weekend, when McCarthy brokered a budget deal to keep the government running.

The hardliners, many belonging to the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, were furious. They were ready to shut the government down over budget talks and thought the speaker gave up too much to Congressional Democrats and President Joe Biden, particularly in the areas of budget cuts and border security.

Having won the power to attempt to get rid of the speaker, they’re now using it. Congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida pulled the trigger and now the speaker will face a vote.

Marianna Brady
Live reporter, Washington DC

Welcome to our live coverage.

It's the day Speaker Kevin McCarthy has feared since he was finally elected to the post in January, when right-wing rebels decided to back him in the 15th round of voting.

One of those rebels, Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, has appeared to withdraw his support and filed a rarely used motion to oust him.

Gaetz says he believes McCarthy made a "secret deal" with Democrats at the weekend to keep the government funded.

His actions have triggered a vote to remove his fellow party member as Speaker - which could occur as soon as today.

The manoeuvre to remove McCarthy is one that could throw an already unruly House into even further disarray.

Democrats have not indicated if they will throw their support behind the Republican Speaker, but we expect to hear more from them soon.

Will Speaker McCarthy survive the day? Voting on other legislative business begins in two hours.

And he could call for the vote on his fate at any time today.

Stay with us as we bring you the latest from Capitol Hill.