Local election 2023: North Lincolnshire a key battleground

BBC News tests the political temperature in North Lincolnshire ahead of the local elections

This week's elections in North Lincolnshire look set to be a battle between the Reds of Labour and the Blues of the Conservatives, although the Greens are challenging too.

Ahead of the showdown, BBC News spoke to staff at an outdoor activity centre to see how they think it will play out.

In the village of Elsham, the Blues defend a battered, wooden fort from an attack by the Reds. Both sides hurl smoke grenades, trying to conceal their movements. The Reds inch forward; their rival's flag the target.

During a lull in the paintball battle, Kelvin Payne, 19, and Peter Rowe, 24, both employees of Elsham Activity Centre, share with me their thoughts on another battle - the looming local elections.

Since 2011, the Conservatives' flag has flown above North Lincolnshire Council, based a few miles away in the steel town of Scunthorpe. Currently, the Tories have 27 seats, Labour 15 and the Independents one.

North Lincolnshire has long been a Tory/Labour battleground - and Sir Keir Starmer's party is reportedly confident of making gains here.

The Greens, who took 5% of the overall vote at the last election in 2019 despite not standing in every ward, will also be hoping to take ground. The party is fielding 10 candidates across the 19 wards, including here in Elsham.

"The younger generation want change," Peter says, before talking about the impact of the cost of living crisis.

Local elections are, at least on paper, about who repairs potholes and empties our bins, but it is clear - for Peter at least - that decisions being taken in Westminster will dictate which box is ticked in local elections.

Peter Rowe says people want change

It will be the first time Kelvin, whose former Army officer father Jon Payne has run the centre for 33 years, has voted in a local election.

"I am clueless about politics," Kelvin confesses. "I will vote, yes. But I don't know who for yet."

Jon tells me he is a "traditional voter" and has decided which party is getting his vote, although he chooses not to elaborate.

He concedes "it would take an earthquake" for him to change political colours at this late stage of the campaign.

Jon Payne, owner of Elsham Activity Centre in North Lincolnshire

He adds: "It's the middle ground who are going to make all the difference in this election; those who don't know which way they're going to vote."

Despite swathes of northern Lincolnshire being staunch Tory territory, Jon thinks the public could use the local elections to push a message to Rishi Sunak's party in response to economic uncertainty.

"If people are going to say to the government 'woah - have a look at what you're doing,' now is the time to do it," says Jon.

Politics can change quickly.

Scunthorpe will recall the last general election, also in 2019, when Labour MP Nic Dakin lost his seat to the Conservatives' Holly Mumby-Croft.

In the town centre I find Matt Bartlett, 35, a steelworker, who tells me he has received an election leaflet from Labour, but nothing from any other party.

Like Kelvin, the young voter in the Elsham woods, Matt says he has yet to decide which party is going to get his vote. But he senses many in Scunthorpe are angry at the government's response to the recent job losses announcement at the steel works; something he thinks might just shape the way people vote.

Elsham in North Lincolnshire

"People around here think the government hasn't done enough to stop it [job losses] happening," says Matt.

"People see politics - local and national - as one big entity. They don't separate local politics from national politics."

Could these elections be seen, then, as a test of 'red wall' voters in North Lincolnshire; those who traditionally voted Labour but who switched sides in 2019 to propel Boris Johnson to election victory?

Matt thinks so.

"I think Boris and Brexit has passed," he says. "And I think some might be regretting voting Conservative.

"After Covid, things seem to have got worse. I know families in Scunthorpe who are struggling to put food on the table."

Scunthorpe steelworker Matt Bartlett does not yet know which party he will vote for

Further up the street I find John Thewlis, 69, and his wife Linda, 67, outside a shop.

John tells me: "I think it [North Lincolnshire Council] could go to Labour but it's going to take a big swing."

He tells me he would like whichever party is elected on Thursday to provide the wheelchair basketball club he runs with further support.

Within seconds, however, the conversation turns to the national political landscape.

"Some people went with those who thought would help them," says Linda. "I think people regret that now."

The Reds and Blues battle it out in North Lincolnshire

Back in Elsham, activity centre owner Jon has an idea.

"It would be fantastic if the candidates got into the paintball arena," he laughs. "A real battle - Reds and Blues. We'd see what the politicians were really made of then."

Click here for a full list of North Lincolnshire Council candidates.

• What photo ID do you need to vote?

• Is there an election in my area?

• When are elections and who can vote?

• What can't I do in a polling station?

• What to expect from May's election