England Elections 2022: Smaller parties key in Greater Manchester

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Boris Johnson painting lines at Bury's Gigg Lane stadiumImage source, Reuters
Image caption,

Boris Johnson tried his hand at painting Gigg Lane's pitch when he arrived in Bury

When you have both the prime minister and the opposition leader launching their local election campaigns in your borough, you know it's a battle of national significance.

Bury frequently has the attention of the Conservative and Labour campaign chiefs because at every general election, the Bury North constituency is considered to be a bellwether seat.

Usually, but not always, whoever wins there ends up occupying Downing Street.

The local election in the town is just as keenly fought.

And with an all-out election due to boundary changes this year, there's even more jeopardy than usual.

Labour controls Bury Council with a majority of three and the Tories have been talking up their chances of taking the authority to no overall control for a few years now.

Labour fancies its chances of holding on, but the party also faces a challenge from a previously unexpected direction.

The relatively small Radcliffe First party, which has dented the big two by picking up councillors in recent years, intends to make more ground.

Don't be surprised if Boris or Keir makes a flying visit once the results are in.

Image source, PA Media
Image caption,

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and deputy leader Angela Rayner took a tour of Ramsbottom to launch their campaign

Next door in Bolton, the leadership of the council also appears to be up for grabs and smaller parties could play a role there as well.

It's Greater Manchester's only Conservative-led council and they've done that by cobbling together the support of almost everyone except Labour.

The Conservatives are the largest party by three but lead a rainbow coalition in a minority administration.

Unusually, more than a third of the borough's councillors are independents or from hyper-local parties.

They're likely to continue as kingmakers after 5 May, regardless of how well the Conservatives and Labour perform.

Stockport is a place where the Liberal Democrats are strongest, but they were left frustrated after last year's election.

Despite making the gains to become the largest party in the borough, they were unable to dislodge Labour as leaders of a minority administration.

Due to their fierce battles with local Conservatives for constituency seats, such as the hotly contested Hazel Grove, it once again seems unlikely that the Tories would help the Lib Dems into power.

It could be that after next week, Labour does continue to run the council, despite having fewer councillors than their opponents.

It would be a council where they need the support of others to get their plans through, though.

Image caption,

Greater Manchester's Clean Air Zone, which was due to start in May before being paused, is on voters' minds

For the Greens, Trafford is their most successful stomping ground.

They have broken new ground in recent elections, though, picking up councillors in Tameside and Manchester.

Their big target is Manchester this time around after polling more votes than any party except Labour in the city last year.

Oldham Council's Arooj Shah is one of a number of leaders up for election this time and the result is of particular interest, as she only became leader a year ago when her predecessor Sean Fielding was deposed by an independent following a very personal campaign against him.

Ms Shah is being similarly targeted by campaigners and could face a nervous wait while the ballots are counted.

Across the region, the controversial plans for a Clean Air Zone are high on the list of issues that could determine how people vote.

With the proposal for daily charges for some vehicles on hold and a row over whether it is Greater Manchester's mayor, its 10 councils or the government to blame for the outcry caused, both Labour and Conservatives may see it cost them support.

It is not the only topic being considered though, with Covid Partygate, council tax increases and the state of the roads also on the minds of voters I've spoken to.

It is always an interesting election day in Greater Manchester and this year, there will be a lot to look out for as the results start to roll in.

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