What next for the Rochdale by-election?

Labour's decision not to back Azhar Ali has thrown the poll into uncertainty

When the Rochdale by-election was called following the death of the town's MP Sir Tony Lloyd, it was clear there would be an eventful few weeks ahead.

But who could have predicted the twists and turns we've seen so far?

The furore over Labour's now withdrawn candidate Azhar Ali has meant all bets are off for the next chapter of this intriguing political saga.

Remember, 11 candidates had lined up after nominations closed.

The main parties as well as George Galloways' Workers Party of Britain, the Monster Raving Loony Party and a host of local independents stepped up to represent the Greater Manchester town.

This was always Labour's to lose. It polled 24,000 votes in the 2019 general election and a healthy majority of 9,500 over the Conservatives in second place.

In fact, Labour got more votes in that election that all the other parties put together.

After a hard-fought selection, Labour had its candidate in Azhar Ali and, with a five-point plan, the backing of mayor Andy Burnham, and host of local MPs at his side, he confidently launched his campaign.

That same day, the first candidate fell out of the race, with the Green party dropping its contender, Guy Otten, over historic social media posts criticising Palestinians and the Islamic religion.

Shahid Pervez said he will probably not vote in the 29 February by-election

There was growing chatter around Mr Galloway's focus on the constituency's sizeable Muslim community.

At a launch event, he told about 200 people they should abandon Labour over the party's support for Israel and refusal to call for a ceasefire in Gaza.

In the meantime, the door-knocking had begun, with social media full of photos of enthusiastic candidates out and about speaking to potential voters and sharing campaign videos to get their message to voters.

Then the news of Mr Ali's Israel comments broke on Sunday morning. By Monday evening Labour had effectively disowned him as their candidate. For the other candidates, the game had opened up.

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• All the candidates in the Rochdale by-election

• Labour will block those unfit to be MPs - Healey

Hope springs eternal in by-elections at the best of times, but now there's genuine excitement among those still in the race about where those potential 24,000 Labour votes will go.

Some Labour voters may now decide not to bother voting at all, but many others could decide to cast their vote elsewhere.

And some are ignoring the poll altogether.

Shahid Pervez said: "I'll probably not vote this year."

James Thompson said: "It is terrible what is going on in Gaza, but [Mr Ali] shouldn't have said what he said.

"I am a Labour man, always have been, and I regret to say that I most probably won't vote."

Glenys Hernon said she was left unsure how to vote

Others voters spoken to by the BBC were more conflicted.

Glenys Hernon said the lack of a Labour candidate meant "you've got to vote for an independent one or not vote at all".

"I don't know what to do," she added.

Like Guy Otten, Azhar Ali's name will remain on the ballot paper, so some could still choose to support him.

Labour would surely have been hoping to have this election in the bag by polling day.

Now even some independents, in their first real interaction with politics, are starting to wonder: "Why not me?"

What we do know is a new MP will be chosen on 29 February.

Anticipating who it could be has suddenly got a lot harder. And there may well be more twists and turns to come before the Rochdale residents go to the polls.