Is Merkel a recruiting sergeant for French right?
- Published
The mass movement of people into Europe from Syria and elsewhere has put a new spring in the stride of France's far right.
To launch her campaign last Sunday for forthcoming regional elections, the Front National's Marine Le Pen chose a boat trip on the River Somme, through the market gardens of the northern city of Amiens.
As we chugged along in beautiful late summer sun, she delivered a set-piece speech in time for the evening news - then took questions from the press pack with her customary mix of pugnacity and charm.
I was struck by how little of her speech dealt with the issue that everyone else there was talking about - immigration.
Maybe it is because she feels the argument has already been made and won.
Mostly she spoke of what she would do for social services, unemployment, housing, culture etc - once she were elected president of the North Picardy region (which is what she is gunning for in December's vote).
But for the party faithful with us on the boat, the news from Germany and the east is more evidence that the FN's message on immigration has always been the right one.
"I do not know a single person - in the FN or in any other party - who wants anything to do with this new wave of immigrants," said Vincent Rousseau, an English teacher from Soissons and an FN candidate.
"We have a country whose economy is broken. We cannot welcome more people. There are no jobs for them. There is no future for them. We have had enough."
Patricia Chagnon, an FN municipal councillor in the town of Abbeville, said many of her constituents were shocked when the socialist mayor of the town agreed to take in some of the new refugees.
"Of course we are distressed by their plight. But I am more distressed by the plight of the poor and elderly in Abbeville. Recently the socialist town hall put up the price of the meals on wheels that the elderly depend on.
"So we now have a situation where we are taking away from our own needy in order to help people who have come from outside."
'Grotesquely irresponsible'
It does not take an advanced degree in political science to conclude that the biggest movement of people into Europe in recent history was bound to be good electoral news for the FN.
Even many of the party's most vociferous opponents have expressed fury at Angela Merkel for - in their view - acting as a recruiting sergeant for Marine.
Far from lauding the German chancellor for her humanity in welcoming refugees, many ruling French socialists felt she was being grotesquely irresponsible.
Malek Boutih, who used to head the anti-racist group SOS-Racisme, accused Merkel of selfishly opening the doors in order to make up Germany's demographic deficit - without any thought for the consequences on countries like France.
"In effect Madame Merkel has become the political ally of Madame Le Pen," he said.
"Her policy on immigration is so ill-thought-out it is sowing consternation across our country."
When even socialists admit that too much immigration is a dangerous thing, it is evident that all the FN has to do is sit back and say: "We told you so."
Which is exactly what Marine Le Pen did when I asked on the boat how the dramatic recent events would affect French politics.
"If anyone had listened five, 10, 15 years ago to what we have always been saying, then we would not be in this mess today," she said.
For one of France's leading experts on the far-right, Jean-Yves Camus, the repercussions of the refugee crisis can only be good news for Marine.
"It is welcome for all the xenophobic parties of Europe, who can say that what is happening now is not immigration. It is an invasion from the Middle East.
"And if, God forbid, there were to be a terrorist act carried out by someone who could be shown to be from this mass movement, then that would play into her hands still further.
"We can expect a lot more of the fear factor as the elections approach."
The latest opinion polls, external make Marine Le Pen favourite to win the Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie region - a victory that would give her big momentum ahead of the presidential race in early 2017.
Marine Le Pen:
Born 5 August 1968
Full name Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen
Youngest daughter of former FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen
In 1976, she survived a bomb attack on the family as they slept in their beds
Trained as a lawyer
She joined the FN in 1986, joined its executive committee in 2000 and was a vice-president for eight years from 2003
Became president of the FN on 16 January 2011
She stood in the 2012 French presidential election, finishing in third position behind Francois Hollande and incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy
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