Premier League: What can happen on the final day of the season?
- Published
As the Premier League reaches its climax on Sunday, there are still plenty of issues to be settled on the final day of the 2011-12 season.
Manchester City and Manchester United are battling for the title, there's a large number of permutations in the race for Champions League places, and a scrap at the bottom to avoid the final relegation berth.
Here's a look at what can happen - and what each club needs to do on Sunday.
MANCHESTER CITY
City are in the box seat to claim their first league title for 44 years. Level on points with rivals Manchester United but leading by eight goals on goal difference, Roberto Mancini's side know that a win over Queens Park Rangers at Etihad Stadium will guarantee the title - barring the unlikely spectre of United winning by a margin of nine or more goals.
And if United slip up, City will still finish on top by matching their rivals' result - a draw is enough if United fail to win, while the title will also be heading to the blue half of Manchester if both teams lose on the final day.
MANCHESTER UNITED
United's destiny is no longer in their own hands - as City's goal difference means that realistically, the Red Devils need to better their rival's result to snatch the title.
So, Sir Alex Ferguson will only be celebrating on Sunday evening if United win at Sunderland and City fail to win, or if United draw and City lose.
WHY CHELSEA ARE THE KEY TO EUROPE
Chelsea can no longer finish higher than sixth, but their presence in the Champions League final slightly complicates the race for European places via the Premier League.
If Chelsea win the Champions League, they will take part in next season's competition as holders - but at the expense of the fourth-placed Premier League team who would normally qualify for the Champions League.
In this instance, the top three teams - and Chelsea - will all enter the Champions League at the group stage, while the fourth-placed team will instead enter the Europa League at the group stage.
But if Chelsea lose the Champions League final, the top four teams qualify for next season's competition as normal, with the top three in the group stage and the fourth-placed team entering in the play-off round. Chelsea, as FA Cup winners, would enter the Europa League at the group stage.
Whether or not Chelsea win in Munich, the fifth-placed Premier League team will enter the Europa League in the play-off round, while Carling Cup winners Liverpool will join in the third qualifying round.
ARSENAL
Arsene Wenger's side are in pole position to finish third and guarantee Champions League qualification - but any slip-up for the Gunners at West Brom could let in Tottenham, particularly as their goal difference is only one ahead of Spurs, or even Newcastle.
Arsenal will finish third: if they win; if they draw and Tottenham fail to win; if they lose (by any margin), Tottenham lose and Newcastle fail to win; or if they lose by a single goal, Tottenham draw or lose, and Newcastle fail to win.
Arsenal will finish fourth: if they draw and Tottenham win; if they lose (by any margin), Tottenham win and Newcastle fail to win; if they lose (by any margin), Tottenham lose and Newcastle win; if they lose by a single goal, Tottenham draw and Newcastle win; or if they lose by two or more goals, Tottenham draw and Newcastle fail to win.
The doomsday scenario of Arsenal finishing fifth can only occur if they lose (by any margin) and Tottenham and Newcastle both win; or if they lose by two or more goals, Tottenham draw and Newcastle win.
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Spurs, who host Fulham, begin the day in fourth place - and that spot will only earn a Champions League berth if Chelsea lose in Munich.
But they need Arsenal to slip up if they are to have any chance of third place - and a heavy defeat for the Gunners may allow Harry Redknapp's men to rise above them on goal difference. But Newcastle are only a point behind.
Tottenham will finish third: if they win and Arsenal fail to win; or if they draw, Arsenal lose by two or more goals, and Newcastle fail to win.
Tottenham will finish fourth: if they win and Arsenal win; if they draw, Arsenal avoid defeat and Newcastle fail to win; if they draw, Arsenal lose by two or more goals and Newcastle win; or if they lose and Newcastle fail to win.
Tottenham will finish fifth: if they draw, Arsenal don't lose by two or more goals, and Newcastle win; or if they lose and Newcastle win.
NEWCASTLE UNITED
The Magpies' goal difference means their permutations are the most straightforward of the three European contenders.
To put it simply, they must win at Everton and hope Arsenal and/or Spurs slip up - otherwise, they will finish fifth and enter the Europa League.
Newcastle will finish third: if they win, Arsenal lose and Tottenham fail to win.
Newcastle will finish fourth: if they win, Arsenal avoid defeat and Tottenham fail to win; or if they win, Arsenal lose and Tottenham win.
Newcastle will finish fifth: if they win, Arsenal avoid defeat and Tottenham win; or if they fail to win, no matter what their rivals' results are.
NB All the permutations listed here presume that Newcastle are unable to make up an unfeasible 16 or 17-goal swing in goal difference on Spurs or Arsenal!
RELEGATION
Bolton Wanderers and Queens Park Rangers are battling to avoid joining Wolves and Blackburn in next season's Championship - and Bolton's goal difference has made the equation fairly straightforward.
Bolton will be relegated unless they beat Stoke, and QPR lose to Manchester City - which would send Rangers down instead.
In the realms of fantasy, Bolton would stay up if they won by nine or more goals and QPR were held to a draw - or if Owen Coyle's side won while making up a 17-goal swing in goal difference against Aston Villa, who would have to suffer a horrendously heavy defeat at Norwich.