Football clubs overspent by 30% on players - CIES Football Observatory study

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Kylian MbappeImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,

France international Kylian Mbappe scored 26 goals in all competitions for Monaco last season

European clubs paid on average 30% more than a player was worth during the recent transfer window, a study says.

The CIES Football Observatory,, external using a transfer value algorithm, claims Paris St-Germain's proposed 180m euro (£165.7m) deal to sign Monaco forward Kylian Mbappe was the most overpriced.

It says the fee was 87.4m euros (£80.4m) more than his estimated worth.

The study also suggests Manchester City overpaid by 29m euros to sign Benjamin Mendy from Monaco for 57.5m.

The Football Observatory uses various statistics, including age, goals and points won by the team, to calculate a value, external for a player.

Greatest gaps between fees paid and estimated values (summer 2017)

Player

Move

Estimated (euros)

Actual fee (euros)

Gap (euros)

Kylian Mbappe

Monaco to PSG

92.6

180

+87.4

Ousmane Dembele

Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona

95.8

147

+51.2

Benjamin Mendy

Monaco to Man City

28.5

57.5

+29

Jordan Pickford

Sunderland to Everton

6.8

34.3

+27.5

Gylfi Sigurdsson

Swansea to Everton

24.1

49.3

+25.2

Mamadou Sakho

Liverpool to Crystal Palace

5.3

28.2

+22.9

Patrik Schick

Sampdoria to Roma

21

42

+21

Nemanja Matic

Chelsea to Man Utd

30.2

50.3

+20.1

Mohamed Salah

Roma to Liverpool

69.4

50

-19.4

Harry Maguire

Hull to Leicester

3.1

21.6

+18.5

All figures from CIES Football Observatory

Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, 23, left Sunderland for Everton for 34.3m euros (£31.6m) in the summer was called up to the England squad last month.

However, according to the Football Observatory, that fee was 27.5m euros (£23.5m) more than Pickford's estimated worth.

The study also said Manchester United overpaid by 20.1m euros (£18.5m) to sign Nemanja Matic from Chelsea, although former England striker and BBC pundit Ian Wright described it as the "last part of the jigsaw" for United.

Mohamed Salah's 50m euro (£46m) move from Roma to Liverpool was less than the forward's estimated value of 69.4m euros (£63.9m).

Greatest gaps between fees paid and estimated values in Premier League (summer 2017)

Player

Move

Estimated (euros)

Actual fee (euros)

Gap (euros)

Benjamin Mendy

Monaco to Man City

28.5

57.5

+29

Jordan Pickford

Sunderland v Everton

6.8

34.3

+27.5

Gylfi Sigurdsson

Swansea to Everton

24.1

49.3

+25.2

Mamadou Sakho

Liverpool to Crystal Palace

5.3

28.2

+22.9

Nemanja Matic

Chelsea v Man Utd

30.2

50.3

+20.1

Mohamed Salah

Roma to Liverpool

69.4

50

-19.4

Harry Maguire

Hull to Leicester

3.1

21.6

+18.5

Davide Zappacosta

Torino to Chelsea

11.8

30

+18.2

Antonio Rudiger

Roma to Chelsea

54.2

39

-15.2

Kyle Walker

Tottenham to Man City

41.3

56

+14.7

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

Arsenal to Liverpool

30.5

43.4

+12.9

All figures from CIES Football Observatory

Total change or tweak to the transfer system?

Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,

Neymar's 222m euro move from Barcelona to PSG in August is the biggest transfer in history

According to the Football Observatory, clubs in Europe's big five leagues (England's Premier League, Spain's La Liga, Italy's Serie A, Germany's Bundesliga and France's Ligue 1) spent a record 5.9 billion euros (£5.4bn), a 41% increase on the previous year.

Following Neymar's 222m euros (£204m) move from Barcelona to PSG, world players' union Fifpro criticised the "anti-competitive, unjustified and illegal" transfer rules governed by Fifa and called on the European Commission to investigate transfer fees within the European Union.

The Football Observatory is also keen for the distribution of transfer fees to be addressed, suggesting an increase in indemnities paid to the clubs that develop players.

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