Hearts: How have they faltered after fast start?
- Published
Hearts were top of the Premiership until early November
Hearts made a blistering start to the Scottish Premiership campaign, topping the table for the first three months with a run of one defeat in 11 games.
It was a pace they were always likely to struggle to maintain, but the drop-off has been drastic. After salvaging a 1-1 draw in the Edinburgh derby on Sunday, Craig Levein's side have won two of their last 11 league matches.
Redemption rests on winning the Scottish Cup final and denying Celtic a treble treble on May 25, but how has the Tynecastle side's season faltered so badly?
Fast start a distant memory
Hearts have 51 points after 35 games, but more than half of that total was accumulated in the opening 11 matches - a spell when they were earning 2.36 points a game.
They started the season with five straight league wins and, following the 0-0 derby draw with Hibernian on 31 October, Levein's men sat four clear of Celtic with 26 points.
They were still top two games later on 10 November, albeit having played two games more, but in their last 24 outings, they have taken just 1.04 points per match.
The absences of John Souttar, Steven Naismith and Uche Ikpeazu coincided with a slump before they winter break in which the club picked up five points from 27.
But things have not got much better since the turn of the year, with Hearts' run of 15 points from 14 games in 2019 just the seventh best in the Premiership, and the draw at Easter Road preceded by three straight defeats.
Even more alarmingly, their form over the past 10 games - eight points gained - is only better than that of doomed Dundee.
Injuries take heavy toll
There can be no doubting that the loss of important players to lengthy lay-offs has been a key factor.
Captain Christophe Berra was the first casualty, suffering a torn hamstring in the second game of the season that sidelined the 34-year-old for nearly four months.
Centre-back partner Souttar joined him in October, with a hip injury that ruled him out until January, and striker Ikpeazu's impressive start was brought to an abrupt end the same week by a broken foot, with which he was absent until early February.
Perhaps the most damaging loss, though, is Naismith, who has twice been struck down with knee damage that required surgery. The striker first succumbed in the 3-0 League Cup semi-final defeat by Celtic on 28 October - Hearts failed to win their following six games - and although the 32-year-old returned just before Christmas, he suffered a recurrence in late February that will likely end his season.
Midfielder Peter Haring also missed the first month after the winter break with a hernia, and Hearts have also been hit hard in the full-back positions. Demetri Mitchell and fellow left-back Ben Garuccio both had their campaign ended months early by ligament damage, while right-back Michael Smith sat out two months with a torn high muscle suffered in February.
Over-reliance on Naismith
Hearts are the least prolific side in the top six, with their 40 goals in 35 league games six fewer than the second lowest-scoring side, Kilmarnock.
Despite missing 16 Premiership matches, Naismith remains the club's top league scorer by a distance. He has netted 10 times - twice as many as any team-mate and 25% of Hearts' total goal tally. Their next highest Premiership scorer is midfielder Haring on five.
The Scotland international's fellow forwards have struggled to fill the void - Steven MacLean mustering three goals in his 23 appearances and Ikpeazu netting three in 16.
Naismith's impact on Hearts' league campaign is huge. With him in the side, Levein's team have averaged 2.05 points per game. Without him, that figure plummets to just 0.75 points.
'Long-ball' team and Levein under fire
Uche Ikpeazu has scored just three times in 16 Premiership appearances
Berra has had to refute claims, external Hearts are a "long-ball team" and, while the stats back him up, fans are growing restless with the style of play under Levein.
Data from analysis company Wyscout shows Hearts make the third fewest long passes in the Premiership, behind Celtic and Rangers, and their accuracy rate of those passes is bettered only by the Old Firm.
But when Ikpeazu is in the team, there is a tendency to go direct to the 6ft 2in striker. It was a tactic used to little effect in the 3-1 home defeat by Rangers on 20 April, with former Hearts midfielder Michael Stewart suggesting there was "a lack of ideas".
After the 2-1 loss to Hibs in early April - the Easter Road side's first victory at Tynecastle since 2013 - boos rang out and Levein insisted he would be at Hearts "for a while yet."
The Scottish Cup semi-final victory over Inverness Caledonian Thistle earned him some breathing space, and Ikpeazu's late equaliser at Easter Road on Sunday prevented successive Edinburgh derby defeats.
Nevertheless, it is now four league games without victory for Hearts, who have three matches remaining to try to build momentum for the make-or-break Hampden meeting with Celtic.
'Very poor season if they don't win the cup' - analysis
Former Hearts midfielder Michael Stewart on Sportsound
This is why the Scottish Cup final is such a huge game for Hearts, because the season really is defined by it. You can't tell me that having beaten Livingston at home, Auchinleck Talbot at home, having to go to a replay and beat Partick Thistle at home and then Inverness in the semi-final, that constitutes success - just to have got to the final by beating those clubs and finishing sixth in the league.
If they win the cup, then of course it's a huge achievement to stop the treble treble, to be the first team [other than Celtic] that's won a trophy in three seasons. That is why everything is riding on this cup final for Hearts. If they don't win it, it's far from success. It's been a very, very poor season. If they do win it then huge plaudits to the club.