Euro 2020: A crisis, pessimism and Marek Hamsik - Slovakia scouting report
- Published
It's winner takes all. All or nothing. Win or bust.
Throw whatever cliché you want at Thursday's Euro 2020 play-off final but it can't sum up the magnitude of the achievement that awaits either Northern Ireland or Slovakia.
The faces and personalities in Ian Baraclough's NI squad are well known but what about the opposition?
Ahead of "the game of the year", BBC Sport speaks to Slovakian football journalist Lukas Vrablik about their chances of making it to the finals next summer at the expense of Northern Ireland.
The lowdown
If you think that reaching a Euro 2020 play-off final would be enough to keep your job then think again. Just eight days after beating the Republic of Ireland on penalties, the Slovak FA dispensed with coach Pavel Hapal.
Admittedly, the shootout victory in Bratislava was unconvincing and was followed up with defeats by Scotland and Israel, however the timing of his dismissal was still somewhat a surprise.
Stefan Tarkovic was part of Slovakia's coaching staff under Jan Kozak at Euro 2016 and is the man now tasked with guiding his nation to a second successive finals.
"It was a surprising decision. It was the pressure from the fans who were really angry at the performances," said Dennik N writer Vrablik.
"It was expected it would happen at some point in the near future, but the timing was really unusual. It would make more sense to sack him after the final.
"If they lose in Belfast no one will be surprised but they now have a chance to prove how good they are under the new coach after all the criticism."
Form guide
As the last-minute managerial change would suggest, Slovakia's form hasn't been great.
The shootout victory over the Republic of Ireland simply papered over the cracks. They are without a win in five matches and their last victory came almost a year ago.
To be honest, their recent form is a bit like Northern Ireland's. They finished third in their qualifying group, behind Croatia and Wales, and, like Baraclough's side, drew one and lost three of their Nations League matches during September and October.
Slovakia did concede chances against the Republic and Stephen Kenny's men were left feeling hard done by after failing to hit the back of the net in Bratislava.
The defeat at home to Israel was the most concerning result, where Slovakia surrendered a two-goal advantage to fall to a late 3-2 defeat against a side who are 51 places below them in the world rankings.
The return of Inter Milan centre-back Milan Skriniar should help shore up the leaky defence however the injury to 20-year-old Feyenoord striker Robert Bozeník, who has four goals in 13 caps, is a blow.
With Josh Magennis, Liam Boyce and Conor Washington all in good form and finding the net for the respective clubs over the last week, the defensive frailties are an area Northern Ireland will be aiming to exploit at Windsor Park.
However despite their poor form, Slovakia have not lost three matches in a row since 2016. Keen to impress under their new boss, Thursday's visitors cannot be taken lightly.
The feeling in Slovakia
Rather unlike an almost arrogant attitude from the Bosnian camp ahead of the semi-final against Northern Ireland, the mood in Slovakia is slightly more pessimistic.
"The feeling is they are two very balanced sides. There has been a crisis in the international team over the last year or so and we do not underestimate Northern Ireland," added Vrablik.
"The results have been pretty bad. It would be great for them to qualify because it is another generation of players. There are a lot of new players so it would mean a lot to them."
After the highs of qualifying for the 2010 World Cup and the European Championships six years later, Vrablik feels the drop off in performances has meant a waning of the interest in the national team.
"Slovaks are known for supporting the team when it is successful but not so much when they are not," he added.
"When Jan Kozak took over the national team in 2013 attendances were a couple of thousand, but when they played against Spain and won (in 2014) it was suddenly sold out.
"The performances over the last two years have not been good so there is not a lot of enthusiasm or positivity about the team.
"I think people would be really satisfied with qualification but there are a lot of problems right now, such as Covid. But it would be great for Slovak football to have some success and it would be a great achievement."
The key men
With his iconic mohawk and classic style, Marek Hamsik stands out from the crowd before you even mention his footballing ability. As it turns out, he is pretty handy on the pitch and is Slovakia's leader and talisman.
At 33 he may now have passed his peak, but make no doubt about it, the former Napoli man is still a world class player and keeping him quiet could be the difference in Belfast.
Now plying his trade in China, Hamsik recently became Slovakia's top goalscorer - not bad going for a midfielder.
Highlighting his importance, Hamsik was involved in more goals than any other player during Pavel Hapal's two-year stint in charge, with four goals and two assists under the former Czech Republic striker.
In what is likely to be a cagey affair, the battle between Hamsik and opposite number Steven Davis, both on the ball and mentally, could be crucial.
After some doubt surrounding his availability, Milan Skriniar is in Slovakia's squad after being released for duty by Inter Milan.
He missed the semi-final against the Republic of Ireland and subsequent Nations League defeats after testing positive for coronavirus, and his return is a timely boost.
Skriniar's availability is even more important to Slovakia after former Liverpool defender Martin Skrtel, who was set to come out of international retirement after impressing for Istanbul Basaksehir against Manchester United, pulled out with a muscle injury.
Both Tottenham and Manchester City were linked with the 25-year-old throughout the transfer window - which speaks volumes about his ability - and he was Slovakia's player of the year in 2019.
Slovakia have only kept three clean sheets in their last 20 matches, only failing to score six times in that run, so an in-form Skriniar will be crucial to keeping out a Northern Ireland side backed by a small but vocal Green and White Army.
Another veteran of the 2010 World Cup and 2016 European Championships, Juraj Kucka is an experienced head in the Slovakian engine room.
A combative midfielder, Kucka is the perfect foil for Hamsik and gives the captain the freedom to showcase his talents.
He may not steal the headlines like his midfield partner, but the Parma man still chipped in with two goals in Euro 2020 qualifying, including a crucial equaliser against Wales.
Napoli midfielder Stanislav Lobotka and versatile Koln playmaker Ondrej Duda are other key men to look out for while former Rangers man Vladimir Weiss is also in the squad.
Interestingly, Weiss can qualify for the Euro 2020 finals on the same night as his father Vladimir, who is aiming to guide Georgia past North Macedonia.
However, Northern Ireland may have something to say to try and spoil that party...
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