2022 World Cup in Qatar: Wales' various qualification routes explained

Gareth Bale is set to win his 100th cap when Wales visit the Czech Republic in October

Now Wales are midway through their bid to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, the play-offs look like their likeliest route to Qatar.

Wednesday's goalless draw at home to Estonia means automatic qualification is almost impossible.

Even though Wales have two games in hand on group leaders Belgium, they need to overhaul a nine-point deficit as well as a goal difference of 17 against the world's highest-ranked side.

Finishing second would secure Wales' place in the play-offs, where they would be two single-leg ties away from their first World Cup since 1958.

Even if they finish outside of the top two in Group E, Wales are all but guaranteed a play-off place thanks to their Nations League success.

But that back-up option could see Wales drawn against tougher opposition than if they were to secure second place in their World Cup qualifying group.

Wales are third after four games, trailing the second-placed Czech Republic on goal difference and having played one game fewer.

"Whatever competition we go into, we always want to finish top," says manager Robert Page.

"We're in a tough group. We've got the Czech Republic, who we got a win against at home which was a great result, and we all know the qualities Belgium have got.

"Of course they're going to be favourites but why would you enter a competition happy with finishing second or third? It's not in our DNA, it's not in our make-up.

"We won't accept that, we want top spot. If we slightly underachieve and get second spot, it's a better play-off place so there's lots to play for."

Wales resume their campaign with a double-header away against the Czech Republic and Estonia in October.

They conclude the group with two home games, first against Belarus on Saturday, 13 November and then against Belgium the following Tuesday.

As Wales aim to end their long absence from World Cups, BBC Sport Wales examines the different ways in which they could qualify.

Who qualifies for the World Cup in Europe?

There are 13 places at the 2022 World Cup up for grabs in European qualifying.

The 10 group winners qualify automatically, while the other three spots are decided by play-offs.

Who qualifies for the play-offs?

The 12 teams in the play-offs are comprised of the 10 runners-up in Europe's World Cup qualifying groups, along with two teams who qualify via the Nations League.

Those two teams will be the best-ranked Nations League group winners who have finished outside the top two in their World Cup qualifying group.

Once the 12 teams have been determined, the six best-ranked runners-up in the qualifying groups will be seeded and drawn to play their single-leg play-off semi-final at home against an unseeded team.

To determine the six best-ranked runners-up, results against the sixth-placed teams in their World Cup qualifying group will be discarded.

If the top six cannot be separated by points, they are determined by the following criteria in order:

• Superior goal difference

• Highest number of goals scored

• Highest number of away goals scored

• Highest number of wins

• Highest number of away wins

• Lowest disciplinary points total based on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials (three points for a red card and one point for a yellow card)

• Ranking of access list for the 2020-21 Nations League

How do the play-offs work?

Once the 12 teams have been determined, the play-offs are split into six single-leg semi-finals, with the six seeded teams at home.

The play-off semi-finals are split into three paths. The winners of semi-finals 1 and 2 meet in play-off final A, the winners of semi-finals 3 and 4 meet in play-off final B and the winners of semi-finals 5 and 6 meet in play-off final C.

For the play-off finals, also played over one leg, a draw is conducted in advance to determine which semi-final winner will play at home.

The semi-finals will be played between 24 and 25 March 2022 and the finals between 28 and 29 March.

Who could Wales face?

A lot could change between now and the end of the campaign but, if Wales do reach the play-offs, there could be some difficult opponents lying in wait.

As things stand, the teams in second place in the other nine groups are Serbia, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, Scotland, Norway, Russia, Albania, Armenia.

Wales and Austria are the two highest-ranked Nations League group winners currently outside the top two in their World Cup qualifying group.

As well as all but ending their automatic qualification hopes, Wales' draw with Estonia could prove damaging to their chances of securing a home play-off semi-final.