Premier League relegation battle: Three teams, one day - who will stay up?
- Published
The relegation battle has seen twists and turns all season but it will come down to the final day to decide which two other teams go down from the Premier League.
It will be a nerve-wracking weekend for supporters of Everton, Leicester City and Leeds United as all three remain in the thick of it, potentially joining already relegated Southampton.
Everton are the only team who can control their destiny and not rely on other results after Leicester missed an opportunity to take matters into their own hands with a goalless draw against Newcastle on Monday evening.
The Toffees scored a 99th-minute equaliser against Wolves on Saturday but they need a victory at home to Bournemouth this weekend to confirm their safety.
Draw or lose, and the opportunity opens up for Leicester or Leeds - but those teams must win their home matches against West Ham and Tottenham respectively to stand a chance.
Leeds slipped to a costly 3-1 defeat against West Ham on Sunday, leaving them two points behind Everton in 19th place. Leicester sit 18th, also two points behind Everton.
Southampton's 11-year stay in the Premier League ended in tame fashion earlier this month with a 2-0 defeat at home by Fulham.
Who needs what?
Chances of survival on final day | |||
---|---|---|---|
With a win | Draw | Defeat | |
Everton | 100% | 64% | 49% |
Leicester City | 54% | 0% | 0% |
Leeds United | 17% | 0% | 0% |
"Everton are still the most likely to survive but their chance of escaping with a draw has reduced from 81% to 64%, as Leicester are now sure to overtake them with a win in that situation," said Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Nielsen's Gracenote.
Everton (17th, 33pts)
Everton's results improved after Sean Dyche became manager at the end of January following the sacking of Frank Lampard, but not enough to steer them clear of trouble.
They were seconds away from defeat against Wolves, but only time will tell how crucial Yerry Mina's late goal will be.
"The mood around Goodison Park would have hit the floor had they left Molineux with the defeat that would have left their Premier League existence even more fragile," said BBC Sport chief football writer Phil McNulty.
"Instead, Mina pounced in a crowded scene to give Everton a point that may yet prove priceless as they go into their final home game against Bournemouth.
"Goodison Park will be full of passion next Sunday as Everton hope they can make their third last-day escape of the Premier League era."
Only Sunday's opponents Bournemouth, with 608, have faced more shots on goal than Everton's 564 this season.
Still to play: 28 May: Bournemouth (h)
Gracenote chance of relegation: 21%
Leicester City (18th, 31pts)
Leicester finished eighth last season and reached the Europa Conference League semi-finals, but they made an awful start to this campaign, picking up only one point in their first seven matches.
Manager Brendan Rodgers has been replaced by Dean Smith until the end of the season, but they have dropped into the relegation places.
"We're going to need help. I think there's going to be a lot of anxiety everywhere between the three teams that are in it," said Smith after the draw at Newcastle.
"First and foremost we have a really tough job against West Ham, to try and win that game. And then it is out of our hands.
"We obviously will give it our best shot and as long as we can say that we have fought tooth and nail, all we can do is put pressure on them [Everton]."
Leicester have an array of attacking talent, but their problem has been conceding goals, having kept one clean sheet in their past 21 matches.
Still to play: 28 May: West Ham (h)
Gracenote chance of relegation: 83%
Leeds United (19th, 31pts)
Jesse Marsch was sacked as manager in February with Leeds on a seven-game winless run but, after an encouraging start, things got tough for new boss Javi Gracia and he was subsequently replaced by Sam Allardyce.
Leeds boosted their survival hopes with a spirited 2-2 draw at home to Newcastle at Elland Road, but Sunday's defeat away at West Ham means their fate is now out of their hands.
The Whites finish the season at home to Tottenham Hotspur.
Winger Luis Sinisterra, whose goal against Leicester on 25 April was his third in five games, isn't available for the run-in owing to an ankle ligament injury, but Junior Firpo is available for the Spurs game after missing the West Ham defeat with a one-game ban.
Still to play: 28 May: Tottenham (h)
Gracenote chance of relegation: 95%
Southampton (20th, 24pts)
Relegated
Southampton will be playing Championship football in 2023-24 after a 2-0 loss to Fulham on Saturday extended their winless streak to 11, including eight defeats, and confirmed their relegation.
They are another side on their third manager of the season after they sacked Ralph Hasenhuttl in November.
He was replaced by Nathan Jones, who only lasted eight Premier League matches and picked up one win before he was also dismissed.
Ruben Selles, assistant manager under Hasenhuttl, was next in line, but he has not been able to keep them up.
Still to play: 28 May: Liverpool (h)
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