Scottish Premiership relegation battle: Who will finish in bottom two?

The Scottish Premiership's bottom four are split by just six points

It might be happening away from the gaze of the live television cameras, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to play for in the Scottish Premiership's bottom six.

Four sides at the foot of the table are split by just six points, with all bottom-half sides set to play each other across their final post-split fixtures. Box-office stuff.

Heading into the first round of a thrilling five-part finale, we asked data specialists Neilsen's Gracenote to help us work out which clubs are most likely to occupy the bottom two spots by using their Euro Club Index.

Oh, and feel free to make your own prediction at the foot of the page - but just be prepared to get battered by your pals when it is inevitably wrong.

As it stands...

Throughout a season, you may hear relegation-threatened managers talk about the need to hit the coveted 40-point mark - a tally that is believed to guarantee survival in any given campaign.

But the truth is, in the Premiership at least, no team has ever required that total to avoid the bottom two places.

Based on current points-per-game averages, 37 would be enough to finish 10th this term, although post-split fixtures can sometimes nudge the magic number up.

Gracenote believe an end-of-season total of 41 offers a 100% chance of guaranteed survival, so it is fair to assume seventh-placed Livingston - with their current tally of 42 - are safe.

The rest have work to do, though. Some more than others...

Motherwell (8th, 37pts)

Chance of direct relegation: 0%

Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 3%

If we are classing Livingston as home and hosed on 42 points, Motherwell are not far off on 37.

In mid-February, the Fir Park club looked doomed. Only goal difference was keeping them off bottom after an 11-game winless league run, but the departure of Steven Hammell and appointment of Stuart Kettlewell has reversed their fortunes.

The Lanarkshire side have lost just twice in nine games under Kettlewell, picking up 16 points on the way, with top scorer Kevin van Veen spearheading the attack with 24 goals to his name.

One more win will surely be enough.

Remaining fixtures: Kilmarnock (H); St Johnstone (A); Ross County (H); Livingston (A); Dundee Utd (H)

St Johnstone (9th, 33pts)

Chance of direct relegation: 1%

Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 15%

Three points from the last 21 on offer. No wins in seven. No manager. St Johnstone are in freefall.

It doesn't feel so long ago Callum Davidson was leading the Perth side to a historic domestic cup double, but last season was one to forget - staying up via the relegation play-off - and this term is threatening to follow suit.

Davidson left by mutual consent last month, with interim manager Steven MacLean taking over. The former Perth striker led the team to a draw against 10-man Hibernian in his first and only game, but it seems he may get until the end of the season.

That would be risky given St Johnstone's form and close proximity to the foot of the table - but with three teams needing to make up ground, Gracenote still gives them just a 1% chance of direct relegation and an 84% chance of guaranteed safety.

Remaining fixtures: Dundee Utd (H); Motherwell (H); Kilmarnock (A); Ross County (A); Livingston (H)

Dundee United (10th, 31pts)

Chance of direct relegation: 6%

Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 29%

It is hard to believe it was just this season that Jack Ross was Dundee United boss. It feels like an eternity ago that the ex-Hibernian head coach's 10-week tenure culminated in a record-breaking 9-0 defeat to Celtic.

Ross' assistant Liam Fox replaced him but that didn't go to plan either. Fox left in February after six straight defeats, with an abject United rooted at the bottom of the table.

Three days later, the Tannadice club had their third manager of the season in Jim Goodwin. After a four-game winless start, Goodwin has led United to three consecutive victories, shooting the team up to 10th.

That turnaround in form has Gracenote forecasting Goodwin's side have a 65% chance of guaranteed safety, despite currently being level on points with 11th-placed Kilmarnock.

Remaining fixtures: St Johnstone (A); Ross County (H); Livingston (A); Kilmarnock (H); Motherwell (A)

Kilmarnock (11th, 31pts)

Chance of direct relegation: 16%

Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 41%

If Kilmarnock's away form was anything like their home record this season, there is every chance they would be playing top-six football for the remainder of the campaign.

The meek five points Derek McInnes' side have picked up on the road is just 16% of their total, and has Gracenote believing they are the most likely to face the relegation play-off.

The positive for the Ayrshire club, though, is that three of their final five games are at Rugby Park, where they have collected 26 of their 31 points.

Their only away win of the season also came in their last fixture before the split at St Mirren a fortnight ago. Perhaps McInnes' men are turning a corner at the right time.

Remaining fixtures: Motherwell (A); Livingston (H); St Johnstone (H); Dundee Utd (A); Ross County (H)

Ross County (12th, 27pts)

Chance of direct relegation: 76%

Chance of playing in relegation play-off: 13%

It is fair to say Gracenote doesn't give County much of chance of securing guaranteed safety - 11% to be exact.

The Highlanders have four points to make up on two sides if they have any hope of finishing 10th. It's not an insurmountable deficit to claw back, but to do it they will need an upturn in form after suffering five defeats in their last six games.

Malky Mackay's men have shown they are capable of pulling out results in high-pressure games, though, with five of their seven wins this term coming against current bottom-six sides.

They are also a club well-versed in surviving battles at the bottom, and in Mackay they certainly have a manager who also has experience in relegation scraps.

Remaining fixtures: Livingston (H); Dundee Utd (A); Motherwell (A); St Johnstone (H); Kilmarnock (A)

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