Scottish Premiership survival guide: Who's involved and what do the underlying numbers tell us?

Panicking yet? Well, it's getting to that time.

The Scottish Premiership calendar has flipped to February, games are starting to run out and all of a sudden the table looks a bit scary.

With 11 points separating a six-team cluster in the league's bottom half, should your club be looking over their shoulder?

If so, how many points will it take to guarantee them safety? Oh, and what do the underlying numbers tell us?

This is BBC Scotland's 2023-24 Premiership survival guide...

Thirty's plenty - for now

How many times have you heard a relegation-threatened manager talk about the need to hit the coveted 40-point mark?

Well, the truth is, no Premiership team has ever required that total to avoid the bottom two places since the play-offs were reintroduced a decade ago.

In fact, as it stands, a tally of just 30 is projected to be enough to finish 10th this term, with 11th-place Ross County's current points-per-game average having them on course for 29 points and bottom side Livingston set for only 23.

With Hibernian and Aberdeen already on 27 and Motherwell (26) and St Johnstone (24) narrowly behind them, does that mean the bottom two are already confirmed? Not necessarily.

An overperformance is not out of the question for County and Livingston, nor is a collapse from a team above.

Add in the Highlanders' game in hand, plus the fact both bottom sides will face each of their relegation rivals at least once more after the split, and the picture could change very quickly.

Two-way fight to avoid bottom?

Crunching the numbers further only heightens the task for the league's basement duo.

This week, Livingston boss David Martindale said securing survival this season would be his "biggest achievement" as a coach. No wonder.

If 10th-placed St Johnstone are to hit their projected total of 35, Livingston would need 20 points from their remaining 12 games to guarantee survival - they have managed just 16 from their 26 fixtures so far.

County, meanwhile, would almost need to double their current haul of 19.

So is avoiding the automatic drop by finishing in the relegation play-off spot the best the pair can hope for?

Livingston gave themselves a huge boost towards achieving that by ending their 17-game winless league run with victory over St Mirren last weekend.

Guess who they play next? County. A priceless three points in Dingwall on Saturday will close the points gap completely against a side who are on their third manager of the season and without a win in 10 Premiership matches.

But if interim boss Don Cowie can rally his players to a seismic victory, making up a six-point gap with 11 games remaining will be a huge task for a Livingston team who have won just three league matches all campaign.

And what about the rest?

With the squads at their disposal, a scrap to avoid the play-off would surely be unthinkable for Hibs and Aberdeen. An eight-point gap being made up on either of them also seems unrealistic.

But if the league form of both sides - who are on a combined 15-game winless run - continues to nosedive, things could start to get nervy.

Motherwell are just a point shy of Hibs and Aberdeen and have a seven-point cushion on County, but the Fir Park side have some convincing to do before they are regarded as being safe.

Going 15 games without a league win between September and December is the main driver for that, plus their next three games include tests against Celtic and Rangers with a huge match at Livingston in between.

That leaves St Johnstone, who are five points above County and eight clear of bottom. But the Perth side, like Motherwell, have also shown relegation form this term.

They took until November to get their first victory and have since won four of their next 16 games, losing their past three.

Craig Levein's men face trips to St Mirren, Aberdeen and Celtic in their next four, and with a home encounter against Livingston making up that quartet, they cannot afford to let their form spiral out of control again.

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