Who will prevail in Scotland's top-six race?

Dundee United manager Jim Goodwin, Hearts head coach Neil Critchley, Motherwell manager Michael Wimmer and St Mirren boss Stephen RobinsonImage source, SNS
Image caption,

Dundee United manager Jim Goodwin, Hearts' Neil Critchley, Motherwell's Michael Wimmer and St Mirren's Stephen Robinson are chasing top-six places

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With two matches to go until the Scottish Premiership splits, only four points separate the teams in sixth and ninth as they fight to squeeze into the top half and potentially secure European football next season.

Dundee United's narrow win over Ross County last Sunday all but guaranteed their top-six status, while Hibernian and Aberdeen both secured their spots with wins over St Johnstone and Motherwell, respectively, a day earlier.

Elsewhere St Mirren put five past Kilmarnock to narrow the gap to sixth-placed Hearts, who were beaten 3-0 by leaders Celtic.

With several teams in the mix still to play each other in the next two rounds, there will be twists and turns aplenty before the split on 13 April.

Scottish Premiership table graphic

How does the split work?

For the uninitiated, Scotland's top flight splits in half after the 12 clubs have played each other three times.

The top six sides then play each other once more, as do the bottom six, taking us to 38 matches played and the final league standings.

The other thing to note is that because the teams in each half of the table are set after the split, the team in seventh could theoretically finish on more points than the team in sixth.

Who has guaranteed their place?

Graphic

Hibernian's 3-0 win took them to 47 points and sealed their place with two games to spare.

That was a scarcely believable notion in early November when David Gray's side sat bottom of the Scottish Premiership after just one win in their first 12 games.

A magnificent run of form changed the mood in Leith though and has them sitting one point clear in third place.

"A fantastic day's work and we fully deserved it given the performance," Gray said after the victory over bottom side St Johnstone.

"At the start of the season the aim is to finish in the top six minimum for this football club. Then you start to look towards European places and if that's achievable. That's the target, that's the aim.

"We had a really difficult start, had to go through that adversity at the start of the season but that's now 15 games undefeated in the league which has given us the opportunity to secure top six with two games to go."

Aberdeen swept aide Motherwell 4-1 to confirm their place in the top-half as well.

Their route there has been in stark contrast to Hibs', with a run of 31 points from their first 11 games being followed by a 14-game winless run.

However, manager Jimmy Thelin was pleased to seal their top-half position having steadied the ship with three wins, two draws, and defeat by Celtic in their last six games.

"From the beginning we've had a clear picture for the long term, but we want to arrive in Europe this season," the Aberdeen boss said.

Runners and riders

Graphic showing each side's top-six chances, with Dundee United now 99% certain to finish in the top half, and Ross County with almost no chance, according to Opta.Image source, BBC Sport

United's narrow win in Dingwall means they are almost certain to be in the top half regardless of their results against Hearts and St Johnstone before the split.

Data company Opta give Jim Goodwin's side a 99% chance of being in the top six given their six-point buffer and superior goal difference to St Mirren, Motherwell and Ross County.

At the other end of the spectrum, they rate County's chance as next to zero, at 0.3%, given they have a four-point gap to make up on sixth-placed Hearts with a far poorer goal difference.

Hearts are only one point above both St Mirren and Motherwell, but the Tynecastle side's superior goal difference is almost worth an extra point at this stage, and they are heavy favourites to sneak in and are given a 66% chance.

However, Neil Critchley's side play Motherwell away in their final match before the split, which could prove crucial given the congested nature of midtable.

St Mirren are away to Dundee and home to Ross County as they attempt to overhaul Hearts, buoyed by their dominant 5-1 win over Kilmarnock on Saturday.

And Motherwell boss Michael Wimmer is hoping to bounce back from their defeat by Aberdeen when they travel to Rugby Park next weekend before that all-important match against Hearts.

"We lost against a good team, but the table is so tight so anything is possible," the Wimmer said.

"It's good that we are in the race for a top-six place, but it's important that we perform for 90 minutes."

"We have to concentrate on the next game against Kilmarnock and hopefully we're still in it when we play Hearts at home.

"The table is so tight that I think it will come down to game 33."

Fixtures