What Wales need to do to reach the World Cup

The end of the international window - and the start of the final countdown in Wales' bid to reach the 2026 World Cup.

Craig Bellamy's side signed off for September's games with a 1-0 friendly defeat against Canada.

But as much as the Wales boss tried to talk about every game being meaningful, it is the qualifiers that matter most to supporters.

And in little more than two months Wales fans will know if they've made it to a second successive World Cup finals.

Or if they need to try again via the play-offs.

A huge October awaits, with two rivals going head-to-head and giving Wales a chance to put their fate in their own hands.

With three games to go, Wales sit in third in Group J. Here is what needs to happen for them to reach Canada, Mexico and the United States next summer.

How it stands

Wales had been top of Group J after Kieffer's Moore goal earned an uncomfortable 1-0 win in Kazakhstan last Thursday, putting them on 10 points.

But North Macedonia's 5-0 victory over Liechtenstein and Belgium's back-to-back 6-0 wins over Liechtenstein and Kazakhstan has changed all that.

North Macedonia sit top on 11 points with three games to go, one point ahead of Wales and Belgium. Belgium have a game in hand on both.

Whoever finishes top automatically qualifies for the finals, while the runners-up book a place in the 16-team play-offs for the remaining four spots.

What's next for Wales?

A wait.

After the friendly with Canada in Swansea, it is another friendly first up - England at Wembley at the start of next month.

And then it is the big one against Belgium on 13 October.

Belgium go into that after a key fixture on 10 October as they welcome North Macedonia.

"It [Belgium] is the biggest game we have going forward, but we had to put ourselves in a position where it is an important game, so job done," summed up captain Ben Davies after the win against Kazakhstan in Astana.

After Belgium, Wales wrap up the campaign in November with a trip to Liechtenstein and a tricky final game with North Macedonia in Cardiff.

Belgium finish with a wintry trip to Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein at home.

North Macedonia face Kazakhstan in October and then that final fixture in Cardiff.

What needs to happen?

In terms of automatic qualification, Wales simply need to win. And win. And win.

The March draw in Skopje against North Macedonia and the dramatic June defeat in Brussels have taken away Wales' wriggle room.

So they could also do with Belgium or North Macedonia slipping up.

The best case scenario is North Macedonia picking up a result in Brussels on 10 October.

That would put qualification in Wales' own hands. It would mean them beating Belgium at home, Liechtenstein away and going into North Macedonia at home on the final day on 18 November knowing victory would book a place in the World Cup.

Optimistic Wales fans will point to the fact that Rudi Garcia's side could only manage a draw in Skopje.

Conversely, if Belgium win against North Macedonia, a win for them in Cardiff would put them six points clear with two games to go.

A loss against Belgium in Cardiff could realistically leave them trailing the Red Devils by six points with two games to go.

What happens if sides finish level?

Wales have lost just one of their 11 games under Craig Bellamy

Wales and Belgium could easily finish level on points. If Belgium win all of their remaining games - bar the one in Cardiff - and Wales win all of theirs, both would finish on 19 points.

Then, it comes down to goal difference and not head-to-head.

And Belgium (+13) - and North Macedonia (+9) - are already better off than Wales (+5).

In other words, as well as beating Belgium at home Wales realistically have to hope that Belgium also drop points elsewhere.

Especially when you consider their final home game is against Liechtenstein.

After goal difference, goals scored is the next tie breaker before head-to-head results are taken into consideration.

What happens if Wales are in the play-offs?

A nervous few weeks for fans next March.

The format is the same used in recent years and was how Wales reached the last World Cup in Qatar.

Teams are placed into four paths and face a one-legged semi-final and a one-legged final; win both and you secure qualification.

With some groups having only just got under way, it is far too early to say which teams could potentially be lying in wait.

What happens if Wales finish third?

As former striker Sam Vokes reminded, North Macedonia will still have a say in this group and will be eyeing their trip to Cardiff in November as a chance to nick second spot.

If the worst happens, Wales are all but sure of having the chance to qualify for the play-offs as one of the Nations League group winners.

In the likely event of two of Spain, Germany, Portugal, France and England finishing either first or second in their group, Wales would get their play-off place.

It is a handy safety net, but it does come with a warning.

The play-offs are seeded with the Nations League entrants being automatically placed into pot four. In other words, should Wales finish third, they would face one of the highest ranked runners-up in the semi-final.

Put simply, it means Bellamy's side have every motivation going into their final three games.

And – as was suggested after full-time in Astana – all that matters from here on in is that they win.