European hopes and 'impossible' predictions
- Published
Just when a run of six Premier League games without a win had threatened to derail Bournemouth's season, the Cherries moved firmly back on track with Monday's 1-0 win over Fulham which lifted them to eighth place on goal difference, and back in the mix for potential European qualification.
The complicated mathematical conundrum of 'how many English teams can qualify for Europe' has been made a little clearer with confirmation of a fifth Champions League slot, while Aston Villa's elimination from the top-tier Uefa competition on Tuesday leaves Arsenal as the Premier League's sole remaining representative.
The second-placed Gunners hold a nine-point advantage over sixth place with six games left, leaving the 'what if Arsenal win the Champions League but finish outside the top five' permutation receding into improbability.
So, five teams for the Champions League, sixth place for the Europa League, and – making the assumption that Newcastle, with their game in hand, might also expect to finish in the top six – the Magpies' Conference League spot (for winning the EFL Cup) should go to seventh place.
Or, potentially lower. The four FA Cup semi-finalists are Nottingham Forest (3rd), Manchester City (5th), Villa (7th) and Crystal Palace (12th). So, as things stand, any of the first three of those teams lifting the Cup would drop Conference League qualification to eighth place.
While the six-point gap between seventh and eighth looks challenging with only six games left, Bournemouth, Fulham and Brighton are locked on 48 points between eighth and 10th – so it will not just be Brighton's long-established rivalry with Palace making sure that this trio of teams will hope anyone other than the Eagles lifts the FA Cup.
That said, those last half-dozen games are far from straightforward for Andoni Iraola's Cherries, who face Palace, Manchester United, Arsenal, Villa, Manchester City and Leicester.
However, the only one of those teams to defeat Bournemouth in the reverse fixtures earlier this season was… seemingly relegation-doomed Leicester, which just shows how trying to make any sort of prediction at this stage of the season is almost impossible!
