This Premier League pursuit becomes a lot easier if you take your chances.
BBC Sport has checked in on some data comparing goals versus expected goals this season.
You can see from the bar graph some teams aren't finding the goals (yellow) to outstrip the expected goals they should score (black).
Tottenham, Manchester City, Arsenal, Brentford, Newcastle, Brighton, Fulham, Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Leicester have all scored more than expected.
Wolves in particular have found the net 32 times from an expected 23.56 - a significant overperformance.
League leaders Liverpool are pretty much bang on in returning what they should, while Arsenal have outperformed, with 43 goals from an expected 37.78.
Bournemouth - 36 goals from an expected 43 - are leaving opportunities on the table.
Gossip: Fulham make Royal enquirypublished at 07:28 22 January
07:28 22 January
Fulham have enquired about AC Milan and Brazil defender Emerson Royal, 26, who will be available if the Serie A club sign England full-back Kyle Walker, 34, from Manchester City. (Times, external)
'Long may this duo reign'published at 12:24 21 January
12:24 21 January
Drew Heatley Fan writer
Image source, Getty Images
Sometimes a player is so good it takes two to replace them.
Fulham caught lightning in a bottle with Joao Palhinha and enjoyed two seasons with him in the heart of our midfield. When he left in the summer, many – rightly – asked how we were going to cope.
The make-up of our central midfield has caused much debate this season, and Saturday's win against Leicester showed definitively what our optimum combination is.
Summer signing Sander Berge returned after five games injured and slotted in alongside Sasa Lukic, himself brought in six months before Palhinha left for Bayern Munich, to put in a masterful performance and show that the pair can provide what our former Portuguese hero could – plus a whole lot more.
The duo gave Emile Smith Rowe more freedom to attack ahead of them, something that immediately paid dividends as ESR notched his fourth goal of the season after a tricky few weeks.
Marco Silva has come in for some criticism this season for persisting with Andreas Pereira in the eight alongside Lukic, sometimes out of necessity, like when Berge was sidelined, but sometimes in a bloody-minded attempt to shove a square peg into a round hole.
It has stunted the Brazilian's campaign; he's more suited to the 10, but with that occupied by Smith Rowe, combined with the return of Berge, Pereira's finding himself staring into the abyss.
I've mentioned before how Lukic has been the biggest winner since Joao's exit, continuing to be proficient in the much-talked-about 'dark arts', evidenced by his nine yellow cards so far this season. But the addition of Berge, whose engine and industry enable him to not only provide further defensive steel, but link defence and attack with pinpoint passing and purposeful runs, has created the perfect blend.
Long may this duo reign. After all, two midfielders are better than one.
Leicester 0-2 Fulham - the fans' verdictpublished at 09:46 20 January
09:46 20 January
Image source, Getty Images
We asked for your thoughts after Saturday's Premier League game between Leicester and Fulham.
Here are some of your comments:
Leicester fans:
Simon: Just when you think things can't get worse, they get worse! The decision to sack Steve Cooper and replace him with a relatively novice manager, was pure gross incompetence.
Neil: This game was the summary of four years of financial mismanagement by Jon Rudkin and the board at LCFC. Years of poor recruitment and bad decision-making, crippling the club with debt and awful deadwood players on long-term deals. We need a change at the top and the owner needs to make a decision and sack the people responsible for this utter mess.
Ian: Once again, tactically naïve and we concede straight after half time. Players don't look happy and chants of 'you don't know what you're doing!' Unfortunately, for me, that's my belief done and dusted. We can talk about 'the great escape' year, but that relied on guts, determination and fight. I don't see those things now. Too passive, not enough quality. It was good while it all lasted. It will be a long while before we taste it again.
James: You don't know what you're doing. Sack the Board. Get out of our club. You know it is desperate times when the happy-clappy fanbase turn against the hierarchy. Baffling subs, puzzling starting XI, mixed with some disorganised chaos. All the goodwill of the Christmas season for Ruud has now well and truly expired. The freefall continues, exponentially.
Fulham fans:
Robert: It appears to be a comfortable win, but you have to wonder, do we practice shooting during training? We only managed two efforts on target against one of the worst teams in the league. A clean sheet is nice after the defensive errors at West Ham.
Will: Great to get back to winning ways, not only for the confidence of the team but for Smith Rowe. An overdue goal from him really helps his confidence. I think he has the ability to create out of nothing and we need that.
David: After a poor-ish first half the goal ignited the game. We didn't look like losing it from then on. If we'd taken our chances it could easily have been three or four-nil. Berge was impressive coming back from injury, if only we'd had him at West Ham. Bring on the Red Devils next week.
Ben: Pretty solid, albeit Leicester weren't great. Great for Smith Rowe to get another goal. Hopefully it will boost his confidence. Very controlled midfield performance, and most importantly an elusive clean sheet! Bring on the tougher run!
Catch up on the Premier League actionpublished at 11:15 19 January
11:15 19 January
Watch highlights and analysis from Saturday's five Premier League fixtures.
Leicester 0-2 Fulham: Silva's side bounce back in stylepublished at 18:01 18 January
18:01 18 January
Charlotte Coates BBC Sport journalist
Image source, Getty Images
After going three Premier League games without a win, Fulham needed to start putting points on the board if they were to keep their European ambitions alive and that is exactly what they did.
Marco Silva's side have only jumped up one spot in the league table but are just five points behind Newcastle in fourth.
After a frustrating first half in which they struggled to hit the back of the net, Fulham flew out of the blocks for the second period and Emile Smith Rowe's immense bravery gave his side the lead.
Once in front, Fulham took control of the match and only looked like doubling their lead - something they did through Adama Traore 20 minutes later.
With just five losses on the board so far this season, Fulham are proving an extremely difficult side to get the better of.
But, Silva thinks his side should be higher than ninth in the table as he said to BBC Match of the Day: "We should have much more points to be frank. I am always ambitious but performance wise, the way we've been playing and been dominant in most of the games we should have taken more points but in the Premier League the difference and details are so small and sometimes they haven't been in our favour."
'We are a really ambitious group'published at 17:42 18 January
17:42 18 January
Image source, Getty Images
Fulham manager Marco Silva talking to BBC Match of the Day after today's victory: "It was a professional win and good victory. It was really difficult in the first half, they started quicker than us and some of the set pieces were a wake up for us. After we had good control of the game, there weren't many chances, but we started the second half well with the goal and from there we built the win, scored the second and had chances to score the third. It was a well-deserved three points and a good reaction from the defeat by West Ham.
On being ninth in the table: "We should have much more points to be frank. I am always ambitious but performance wise, the way we've been playing and been dominant in most of the games we should have taken more points but in the Premier League the difference and details are so small and sometimes they haven't been in our favour.
"There have been some big improvements from last season, both in terms of results and points, and we've performed better this season than some spells last season. The players have been great, always with the mindset to learn and open minds to receive information and feedback. It has been a very good journey for us and we want to make the fans proud. We will fight for more because we are a really ambitious group."
Leicester 0-2 Fulham: Did you know?published at 17:29 18 January
17:29 18 January
Image source, Getty Images
Fulham have won four of their 11 Premier League away games this season (D4 L3), as many league victories as they picked up on the road across the whole of the 2023-24 campaign (W4 D6 L9).
Sutton's predictions: Leicester v Fulhampublished at 11:15 18 January
11:15 18 January
'Foxes never quit' is Leicester's motto, but it is starting to look like they have done.
Ruud van Nistelrooy's side are on a run of six straight league defeats and are in desperate trouble.
I was too generous to them in my prediction before they played Crystal Palace on Wednesday because I thought they would score, but Palace won that one very comfortably in the end.
It's not a surprise to see Leicester struggling now because I think it's a case where they have been a mess all season.
There are people out there who will think this has been coming, because they sacked Steve Cooper and then seemed to give Van Nistelrooy the job off the back of two wins against them with Manchester United.
He was a great player who had his managerial apprenticeship with PSV, and I admired the job he did with United too, so this situation is not on him - he just inherited this team.
It is always a struggle for promoted teams, but there seemed to be a different expectation from Leicester fans because of their recent history, and a belief they would stay up easily then kick on.
The Premier League does not work like that, and they have found that out.
Fulham are not on a great run either, although they come into this game off the back of a lot of draws rather than defeats.
I thought Marco Silva's side deserved something out of their defeat to West Ham on Tuesday, and they won't slip up again - I can see Leicester scoring, because they are due a goal, but Fulham will have too much quality for them.
Earlier, we asked you who scored Fulham's first Premier League goal of the 2024-25 season.
The answer is Emile Smith Rowe, who netted in the 2-1 win over Leicester on 24 August.
Leicester v Fulham: Did you know?published at 11:03 17 January
11:03 17 January
Image source, Getty Images
This will be the 12th Premier League meeting between Leicester and Fulham.
It is the most played fixture in the competition where at least one of the sides was in their first season after promotion in every single meeting.
Today's trivia challengepublished at 09:03 17 January
09:03 17 January
Who scored Fulham's first Premier League goal of the 2024-25 season?
Answer will be revealed at 17:00 GMT
Silva on the end of Fulham's unbeaten run, Willian and Munizpublished at 16:35 16 January
16:35 16 January
Henry Brownsey BBC Sport journalist
Fulham boss Marco Silva has been speaking to the media before Saturday's Premier League game at Leicester City (kick-off 15:00 GMT).
Here are the key lines from his news conference:
Reiss Nelson and Kenny Tete are out, with the latter set to remain on the sidelines "until the end of March or the first weeks of April."
On injured Emile Smith-Rowe, Silva hopes "we can see him soon again with the team": "It was nice to see him on the pitch but let's see when he's going to be back in contention."
Everyone else is available for Fulham, including Sander Berge who has missed the past five games.
On the loss at West Ham on Tuesday: "If you asked me the next five times to play the same way - I would say yes. In five games, if you perform the same way without some mistakes, you are going to win five out of five. In 10 you are going to lose one and we lost that game."
He insisted he would be very happy with a similar performance on Saturday.
That defeat ended Fulham's nine-game unbeaten run and Silva was "delighted with the performances and dominance" in many of them, particularly given that December, in his view, is a very difficult month to go on such a run with the amount of games, injuries and suspensions.
The club "are not open" to selling Rodrigo Muniz: "No-one has contacted us because it's going to be a quick and easy answer. There is no chance at all, even to start to talk."
Silva said it is a "good headache" to have competition upfront, describing Muniz as a "really crucial" player who has "all the conditions to be the number nine of this football club for many years."
He was also asked about potential Fulham interest in a return for free agent Willian who left Craven Cottage in the summer: "We have enough wingers and we have to move with them."
With the club six points better off than this time last season, Silva said there is now "zero pressure", adding Whites "just have to look forward and improve."
With opponents Leicester currently 19th, Silva said his Foxes counterpart Ruud van Nistelrooy "knew what type of challenge he was going to face" when he took charge.
Finally, Silva praised Leicester striker Jamie Vardy: "He is the best example of fighting at the age he is now. He's the first to fight and chase for all the balls and is ready to be a threat every moment of the game."
West Ham 3-2 Fulham - the fans' verdictpublished at 09:05 15 January
09:05 15 January
Image source, Getty Images
We asked for your thoughts after Tuesday's Premier League game between West Ham and Fulham, which the Hammers won 3-2 in Graham Potter's first Premier League game in charge.
Here are some of your comments:
West Ham fans
Jim: What a result. Yes, we rode our luck, especially at the end, but we also played some really good stuff, especially the second goal. At the end, there was a feel-good factor - it was joyous. What a massive three points.
Kevin: How good to see us play like a team rather than a bunch of individuals who didn't seem to know what they were supposed to be doing. Real character shown by all the players, including the subs. To fashion a team and tactics with so many key players missing shows a lot of promise.
Michael: Big respect to Potter, for a great three points. Getting a result against a good team like Fulham with NO proper strikers is an extraordinary achievement. However, he must fix our terrible defence. Sadly, I doubt if they can be coached to be better. I would keep Max Kilman and Aaron Wan-Bissaka and clear out the rest. Get some defenders with pace and leadership qualities. Up front we must sign a striker or take someone on loan. But, overall I'm heartened by Potter's start.
Ant: Nowhere near perfect, but how refreshing to see some shape and urgency from the team, where they all looked like they knew what their job was and wanted to do it well. It was also great to hear the crowd really get behind the team, roaring the boys on to a hard-fought and much-needed three points. Two games in and definite signs of improvement.
Fulham fans
Charlie: Just frustrating. Went from controlling the game to 2-0 down in about 30 seconds. We seem to have these random off days, such as the 4-1 loss to Wolves in November. On to the next on. In Marco we trust!
Robert: Fulham made four goals. Two were for West Ham. That says it all.
Simon: You'll hear a lot of people citing a lack of finishing or the risks of playing out from the back as the problem, but our real problem is our defence. That's the fifth time this season we've scored two goals and failed to win. We simply have to tighten up, and can't continually need to score three just to win or even draw a game.
Glen: These defensive errors are really starting to derail our season. Three awful mistakes which have led directly to goals in our past three league games now have cost us crucial points. We were the better team but once again have nothing to show for it. Adama Traore really does need to work on end product as well.
'Result could have been completely different if we were clinical' - Silvapublished at 23:24 14 January
23:24 14 January
Image source, Getty Images
Fulham manager Marco Silva, speaking to TNT Sports: "When you make mistakes like we did, it's very difficult to win football matches.
"We were the most dominant team from the first minute and created the most chances. There was only one team that was on the pitch trying to win the game until we conceded that first goal that we gave them.
"We controlled the game and hit the crossbar. We showed the quality until then, but we have to keep the standards up throughout the game.
"We also had another one hit the crossbar from Raul Jimenez, and even with the mistakes we made in the first half, the result could have been completely different if we were clinical.
"In the second half, we knew we had to start strong and score early to come back and get a result. We did it and then we gave another goal away for them. We did everything much more than West Ham. We have been dominant like we are in all the games. But it didn't reflect at all in the result but this is the reality of the Premier League."
West Ham 3-2 Fulham: Did you know?published at 22:41 14 January
22:41 14 January
Image source, Getty Images
Only Mohamed Salah (13) and Bukayo Saka (10) have provided more assists than Fulham's Antonee Robinson in the Premier League this season (nine).
Robinson's nine assists in 21 league appearances this term is more than in his first two seasons in the competition combined (seven assists across 100 games).
